News

News

Published

August 1, 2024

Written by

Anna Zahn, Clarie Alspektor, Clive Vella and Shihab Halep

Airwars and the White Helmets have launched a new project presenting White Helmets incident response data in a single and interactive repository, hosted on the Airwars website.

On February 6th 2023, a devastating earthquake hit areas of Syria and southern Turkey leaving an estimated 55,000 people dead. In northwest Syria, the White Helmets, also known as Syria Civil Defence, deployed their volunteer first responder teams – rescuing at least 2,950 people from under the rubble and recovering the bodies of more than 2,000 others.

White Helmets teams have since been working on reconstruction efforts, including by clearing roads, facilitating community access and providing essential humanitarian services. These efforts have been challenged by continued hostilities, with airstrikes hitting communities already vulnerable from both the earthquake effects and the preceding years of protracted conflict.

In an effort to capture and quantify the on-going harm in Syria, particularly in areas already made vulnerable by the known intensity of the earthquake, Airwars and the White Helmets have teamed up to combine and consolidate data.

Our findings are detailed in the latest edition of Fragments, a new quarterly publication launched by the Explosive Weapons Monitor.

A summary of our findings:

    Civilians were often killed in areas where the February 2023 earthquake had been the most intense. In the months following the earthquake, the White Helmets responded to 1,245 attacks using explosive weapons, leading to at least 167 civilian fatalities – a third of which were children. More than 80% of those fatalities were in locations where the earthquake had some of the most intense shocks in Syria. Throughout the year, artillery shelling by Syrian Regime forces led to high numbers of incidents in which civilians were killed, with the White Helmets recording more than 900 separate attacks using artillery on earthquake affected areas. One White Helmets volunteer was killed in a strike with a guided missile on a marked service vehicle, while three other volunteer responders were injured across separate attacks. Among the incidents is a May 3rd strike in Idleb conducted by US forces, on a civilian that the US now admits was misidentified as a member of Al Qaeda.

This joint project is intended to draw attention back to a conflict that gets little international attention, despite the on-going intensity of attacks on civilians. It is also intended to show the benefits and effort of collaborating on critical documentation practices, even in the most intense of battlefields.

Methodology

Data points reflected on the map are incidents provided to Airwars by the White Helmets. Each incident is an instance where first responders were called to respond to explosive weapons use. Data provided included coordinates identified by on the ground response teams, as well as descriptions of the types of operation (such as air or artillery strike), the date, and a short description of the harm caused (such as fatalities or infrastructure damage).

Attribution of the strikes was also provided by the White Helmets, based on an assessment of aircraft use and direction of flight based on areas of control. All attribution should be treated as indicative only, given the complexity of joint operations and lack of transparency around strike reporting by all belligerents. Airwars has written about this in more detail here.

Airwars is continuing to assess each 2023 incident in line with our own casualty recording methodology, and has already published 105 cases reported in earthquake-affected areas on our website – totalling some 98 civilian deaths from alleged Russian strikes alone.

Published

May 2024

Written by

Anna Zahn, Emily Tripp, Joe Dyke, Megan Karlshoej-Pedersen and Rowena De Silva

The US has declared that its military actions in 2022 resulted in no civilians killed or injured, the first such release since a landmark policy intended to overhaul American practices and approaches to civilian harm across the globe.

▲ US military actions in 2022 involved an increase in support for partner forces, often including airdrops (Photo: U.S. Army)

Incident date

December 25, 2023

Incident Code

CI882

LOCATION

حي الجزائر, Algeria region, Hilla, Babylon Province, Babil, Iraq

On the 25th of December, 2023, a declared U.S. airstrike was conducted against the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Hilla, central Iraq, reportedly injuring two female civilians: Shadhadan Karim Mirza, and Wasnah Maher Kahem. One member of the PMF was also killed and up to 19 other members of the PMF and

Summary

First published
December 25, 2023
Last updated
February 8, 2024
Strike status
Declared strike
Strike type
Airstrike
Civilian harm reported
Yes
Civilians reported killed
Unknown
Civilians reported injured
2
Cause of injury / death
Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
Airwars civilian harm grading
Fair
Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
Known belligerent
US Forces
Known target
Iraqi militias (PMUs)
Named victims
2 named
Belligerents reported killed
1
Belligerents reported injured
18–19
View Incident

Incident date

August 4, 2023

Incident Code

CS1996

LOCATION

مطب البوراشد, , Matab Al Bourashed, Deir Ezzor, Syria

On the 4th of August 2023, International Coalition forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) allegedly conducted an airdrop operation, which involved a ground action and helicopters, at dawn in the town of Matab Al Burashid, in Deir Ezzor, shooting and killing a civilian named Ali Abdel Hamid Al-Areed and injuring his brother. Multiple media

Summary

First published
August 4, 2023
Last updated
April 29, 2024
Strike status
Likely strike
Strike type
Airstrike, Counter-Terrorism Action (Ground)
Civilian harm reported
Yes
Civilians reported killed
1
(1 man)
Civilians reported injured
1
Causes of injury / death
Heavy weapons and explosive munitions, Small arms and light weapons
Airwars civilian harm grading
Fair
Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
Suspected belligerent
US-led Coalition
Suspected target
ISIS
Named victims
1 named
View Incident

Published

July 2023

Written by

Anna Zahn

On the night of October 26, 2019 the US military carried out an operation against ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi in Syria. Local journalists reported the deaths of at least five civilians in the raid. Alongside Baghdadi’s family members and ISIS operatives within the compound, three civilians were reported harmed while passing by the Baghdadi residence at the time.

Following a freedom of information lawsuit by NPR, the US military released the partially redacted 14-page  civilian harm assessment it conducted into the incident. The document highlights fresh concerns about both the pattern of US targeting which has consistently resulted in the death and injury of civilians, and the approach to assessing and responding to civilian harm claims.

Incident date

July 19, 2023

Incident Code

CS1995

LOCATION

تل الذهب, Tal Al Thahb in Al Dashisha, Deir Ezzor, Syria

Two brothers were killed by an operation declared by the SDF and involving the US-led Coalition in Tal Al Thahb, Al Dashisha on July 19, 2023. Sources are conflicted as to whether the men killed were civilians or members of ISIS. Euphrates Post reported that two people, Muhammad Salem Al-Nazal (28 years old) and his

Summary

First published
July 19, 2023
Last updated
April 29, 2024
Strike status
Likely strike
Strike type
Airstrike, Counter-Terrorism Action (Ground), Drone Strike
Civilian harm reported
Yes
Civilians reported killed
0 – 2
Causes of injury / death
Heavy weapons and explosive munitions, Small arms and light weapons
Airwars civilian harm grading
Fair
Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
Suspected belligerent
US-led Coalition
Suspected target
ISIS
Belligerents reported killed
0–2
View Incident

Published

July 14, 2023

Written by

Megan Karlshoej-Pedersen

Header Image

UN Headquarters in Geneva (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

New UN Human Rights Council study emphasises importance of casualty recording for human rights

A breakthrough United Nations report outlining the importance of casualty recording for the protection and promotion of human rights has received nearly universal support at the Human Rights Council’s 53rd session.

The report, which linked casualty recording and human rights obligations directly, received widespread support at the council on July 3rd – with 19 states and observers expressing support for the findings and recommendations. Only one state, Venezuela, expressed objections.

The study will create pressure on states – many of which have previously expressed confusion and hesitancy regarding their obligations around casualty recording – to do more to monitor the civilian impact of conflict.

Setting the tone for the Council session, the report from the High Commissioner for Human Rights recommended that states: “ensure that casualty recording systems and policies are in place and report publicly on all casualties believed to have resulted from hostilities or violence and their circumstances, including for reparations and accountability”.

If implemented, such measures would create a global best practice around casualty monitoring. There is currently little transparency about how states record casualties from their own actions, and state militaries often face accusations of undercounting the civilian impact of their actions.

In the United Kingdom, for example, the Ministry of Defence refuses to publicly disclose details on its own mechanism for casualty recording in the war against ISIS. Airwars is challenging this position in a tribunal later this year.

The importance of casualty recording 

The High Commissioner’s report emphasised; “Casualty recording is an important and effective means of delivering on a range of fundamental human rights”. The report further notes: “In addition to disciplinary and accountability measures, such information can be used to foster compliance with international law, including by changing practices and behaviour and enhancing training to this end.”

The US delegation reflected on casualty recording in Ukraine, acknowledging that: “we still do not know the full picture. For that reason, we must advance efforts to create a comprehensive casualty recording system that accounts for all casualties, both civilian and military.”

The delegation went on to emphasise that the US is keen to “aid the international community in developing a casualty reporting mechanism at the international level to contribute to equal access to justice for all”

The support for casualty recording is particularly significant in the context of other successes for civilian protections at the UN last week. In a statement welcoming the report on casualty recording, 56 states of the ‘Group of Friends of R2P’ emphasised the connection between casualty recording and atrocity prevention.

A week earlier, a resolution was adopted at the General Assembly creating an independent institution to examine the fate of all people who are missing in Syria. Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, an estimated 130,000 people have gone missing or been forcibly disappeared.

The moves at the UN follow other international assertions on the importance of casualty recording. The Explosive Weapons Declarations, signed by nearly 90 states in November last year, urges states to “record and track civilian casualties, and [ensure] the use of all practicable measures to ensure appropriate data collection.” The US’ Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan (CHMRAP), which is widely seen as one of the most ambitious and detailed national policies on this topic, highlights that “developing standardized reporting procedures for operational data to inform civilian harm assessments …will improve DoD’s ability to mitigate and respond to civilian harm.”

The work of independent civil society organisations

Airwars has been collaborating with civil society organisations, particularly Every Casualty Counts and other partners in the Casualty Recorder’s Network, to present evidence for the Human Rights Council report over the last year.

Last year, Every Casualty also released a hard hitting report outlining the requirements for casualty recording across legal regimes. It found that “international humanitarian and human rights law contain extensive requirements regarding states’ duties to account for the dead and missing in armed conflict and other situations of gross human rights violations… these duties are universally binding on all states.”

The work of these organisations was emphasised throughout the report. On the work of Airwars, the report highlighted our work with the US military and Government in particular, highlighting that: “more than 70 per cent of United States internal inquiries into civilian casualties caused by air strikes in the Syrian Arab Republic and Iraq since 2014 have been based on casualty recording submitted by Airwars.”

The report also drew attention to the advocacy work of organisations like Airwars, writing: “…following years of advocacy and engagement based in part on [Airwars’] findings on casualties in Iraq, Libya, Somalia, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen, the United States Department of Defense issued the Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan in August 2022.”

We welcome the findings of the report on casualty recording and the widespread support it received at the Human Rights Council last week. It brings clarity to the requirements on states and reaffirms, at an international level, the importance of accurately recording and reporting on casualties in warfare.

▲ UN Headquarters in Geneva (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

Incident date

July 7, 2023

Incident Code

CS1994

LOCATION

بزاعة, Bza’a, Idlib, Syria

A civilian was injured by declared US drone strikes which killed an ISIS member on July 7, 2023 on the road between Al Bab and Bza’a, Syria. The @SyriaCivilDefe reported that a person was killed while driving a motorcycle on the road between Al Bab and Bza’a and a civilian was slightly injured while passing

Summary

First published
July 7, 2023
Last updated
April 29, 2024
Strike status
Declared strike
Strike type
Airstrike, Drone Strike
Civilian harm reported
Yes
Civilians reported killed
Unknown
Civilians reported injured
1
Cause of injury / death
Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
Airwars civilian harm grading
Fair
Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
Known belligerent
US-led Coalition
Known target
ISIS
Named victims
1 named
Belligerents reported killed
1
View Incident

Published

July 3, 2023

Written by

Anna Zahn and Clarie Alspektor

Header Image

DoD photo by Air Force Staff Sgt. Julian Kemper

Civil society demands transparency over latest US military civilian harm investigation

On June 29th 2023, Airwars joined 20 human rights, humanitarian and civilian protection organisations in sending a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin calling for greater commitments to transparency and due process over its on-going investigation into the May 3rd strike in Syria that killed Lutfi Hassan Masto.

Within hours of the US strike local sources reported that Masto was a civilian, not the ‘senior Al-Qaeda leader’ the US military claimed him to be.

▲ DoD photo by Air Force Staff Sgt. Julian Kemper

Published

June 2023

 

On May 3rd, 2023, the US military announced that it had targeted a ‘senior Al-Qaeda leader’ in a strike in Syria. That same day, the White Helmets shared images from the scene where they were the first responders to the strike. They reported that a civilian had died: Lutfi Hassan Masto, a 60-year old farmer killed alongside his sheep.

More than a month later, CNN revealed that the US military had decided to open an inquiry into the incident – known as an ‘AR15-6’ – after doubts grew about the identity of the victim. A US official admitted “we are no longer confident we killed a senior AQ official.”

AR15-6s are the US military’s most detailed review of civilian harm allegations. The same procedure was initiated after a strike killed ten civilians in Kabul, Afghanistan on August 29th, 2021, when the US incorrectly identified aid worker Zemari Ahmedi as an Islamic State militant.

Earlier this year The New York Times published 66 partially redacted pages of that AR15-6, declassified by the Pentagon after a successful Freedom of Information Act request.

This is the latest document released by the NYT, adding to more than a thousand civilian harm assessments released relating to the US-led Coalition campaign in Iraq and Syria during the war against ISIS. While most of these assessments were shorter-form investigations intended to be more adaptable to high tempo situations, more than a dozen were full AR15-6s – each one dozens of pages long.

Over the past year, Airwars researchers have been coding and reviewing this tranche of declassified civilian harm assessments. With new funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, we are now working in partnership with researchers at the Universities of Auckland, Minnesota, Newcastle and Ottawa to produce a comprehensive set of resources analysing this material due to be published over the next year.

In advance of that analysis, we are releasing a selection of excerpts of civilian harm cases chosen by our researchers, which place the decisions made in the Kabul strike in the context of a pattern of decision-making, and which can also inform understandings of the May 3rd strike on Lutfi Masto.

“An unknown heavy object”

Concerns with the quality of the surveillance feed have been observed by Airwars researchers throughout our analysis of the declassified Pentagon documents as having contributed to civilian harm incidents.

In the case of the Kabul strike, officials note in the AR15-6 that the surveillance feed “obscured the [ID] of civilians” and that the “trees and courtyard overhang limited visibility angles”.

In other cases, reviews of higher quality imaging prompted only by civilian harm allegations have also revealed that weapons originally perceived to be held by ISIS militants were in fact never there to begin with.

On November 12, 2015, one civilian – a child – was unintentionally killed in Ramadi, Iraq, after initially being perceived as “an unknown heavy object” during targeting.

The report admitted that when the video footage was reviewed on a 62” high definition TV, it was clear that the “person dragging a heavy object, was actually moving with a person of possible smaller stature”.

In the incident below, at least seven civilians were killed in Raqqa, Syria, on December 7th 2016 after Coalition forces incorrectly assessed the individuals were carrying weapons and wearing tactical vests. The civilian harm assessment revealed that this was despite the fact that the Coalition observed the building for six hours before it was struck.

“Driving at a high rate of speed”

Understanding how targets are selected is a common challenge for third parties reviewing the consequences of military actions. In both the AR15-6 and throughout many of the documents covering the US-led campaign in Iraq and Syria against ISIS, behavioural patterns were referred to as justifications for target selection: in many  harm incidents, the analysis of these patterns has proven deadly for civilians.

On May 11th 2017, declassified documents reveal that the speed at which a vehicle was driving was the reason for the strike. CENTCOM admitted to killing two civilians in the incident in August 2017. The declassified document, released more than three years later, shows that those killed were quickly identified as children by officials reviewing the post-strike observation footage.

The Kabul strike against Ahmadi’s vehicle similarly used the observation of driving habits and techniques to ascertain militant status, even though the reasoning for certain actions during driving could also be explained by a wide range of unobserved factors. In Ahmadi’s case, these factors included the need to visit different areas of his city in order to carry out errands.

During an interview conducted as part of the AR15-6, an official stated that the way that the driver also “carefully” and “gingerly” loaded up the car were all factors in the decision to strike. The New York Times later revealed that those actions were typical of  Ahmadi’s usual day at work, where he collected water to assist in humanitarian aid distribution.

“Unexpected collateral damage”

In Kabul, the AR15-6 notes a service member saying that “the explosions were massive” after the strike. Originally thought to be corroborating evidence for the supposed munitions held in the vehicle, military officials later noted that it is more likely that the secondary explosion was caused by a propane or gas tank.

From a strike that killed at least 70 civilians in Hawija that prompted a major investigation and policy reforms in the Netherlands, to a series of strikes on fuel trucks in Iraq that barely made headlines – secondary explosions appear throughout civilian harm assessments as a likely cause of death and injury.

In 2016, the US-led Coalition fired aerial rockets as warning shots over the civilian drivers of fuel trucks in Syria. However, the civilian casualty assessments reveal that these warning shots were rarely effective: some of the drivers simply swerved sharply to avoid the rocket fire or, in other cases, they left their vehicles, waited and then returned after a short time, presumably thinking that the immediate danger had passed.

The significant secondary explosions resulting from strikes on fuel trucks in many of these cases led to the deaths of the civilian drivers.

Other cases of secondary explosions occurred in more densely populated battlegrounds. On January 21st 2017, at least 15 civilians were killed when a strike caused “unexpected collateral damage” in a densely populated neighbourhood in Mosul, Iraq.

Four children were reported killed in the strike. An excerpt from an interview with one of the survivors, conducted by The LA Times, is included in the declassified assessment: “Why would they make a mistake like this? They have all the technology. This is not a small mistake”.

The assessment report is brief, reflective of the shorter form civilian harm assessments conducted throughout the war against ISIS. It does not recommend any further action, such as the opening of the more in depth AR15-6.

In total, Airwars has tracked at least 8,198 civilian deaths resulting from the actions of the US-led Coalition. The US-led Coalition has admitted to 1,437 casualties, with many of those incidents originating as Airwars referrals rather than proactive reviews by the United States military. To date, there remain 37 open cases of civilian harm allegations yet to be resolved.

The excerpts above and the forthcoming analysis reveal much about how the US military navigates the information environment: how it reads militant status within the behaviours of civilians, how secondary explosions are seen as unfortunate but unpredictable – even in the most densely populated areas – and how blurred surveillance footage can lead to children being mistaken for objects.

The US has begun a process of ostensibly reviewing these assumptions, with its new Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan underway. Separately the Dutch Ministry of Defense has taken the unprecedented step of releasing a database of all weapon deployments by Dutch F-16s during their involvement in the Coalition campaign in Iraq and Syria. Other members of the Coalition have been less forthcoming. Later this year, Airwars is taking the UK Ministry of Defence to a tribunal to push for the release of their own civilian harm assessment in the single incident in which they admitted to having killed a civilian in eight years of intense campaign.

In the absence of full transparency and accountability for the civilians killed by the US-led Coalition, lessons cannot be appropriately learned for future operations. This failure to reckon with these past actions will continue to have devastating outcomes for civilians, as it has done for the victims of the Kabul strike in 2021, and likely too for Lutfi Masto and his family in Syria last month.

On June 29th, Airwars joined 20 other civilian protection and human rights organizations in calling on the US military to carry out an investigation into the incident in Syria that is robust, transparent, and accountable, with the hopes that this investigation will set a precedent for all future civilian harm allegations.

Authors: Anna Bailey-Morley, Stephen Pine, Alice Smith, and Anna Zahn

Volunteers who are supporting this project include: Anna Bailey-Morley, Stephen Pine, Alice Smith, Nasim Hassani, Arturo Gutierrez de Velasco, Reine Radwan, Nitish Vaidyanathan, and Austin Graff

 

 

Incident date

June 11, 2023

Incident Code

CS1993

LOCATION

صلهام, Salham, Al Hassakah, Syria

A young man was killed and others were injured during an alleged Syrian Democratic Forces and US airdrop operation in the village of Salham on June 11, 2023. Sources were conflicted as to whether the young man was a member of ISIS or a civilian. The Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), the Syrian-regime news organization,

Summary

First published
June 11, 2023
Last updated
April 29, 2024
Strike status
Likely strike
Strike type
Counter-Terrorism Action (Ground)
Civilian harm reported
Yes
Civilians reported killed
0 – 1
(0–1 men)
Civilians reported injured
2
Cause of injury / death
Small arms and light weapons
Airwars civilian harm grading
Fair
Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
Suspected belligerent
US-led Coalition
Suspected target
ISIS
Belligerents reported killed
0–1
View Incident

Published

June 5, 2023

Written by

Megan Karlshoej-Pedersen

Header Image

Hawijah's industrial area in 2021, showing the damage and destruction that remained widespread (Image via Roos Boer, PAX)

On the eighth anniversary of the Dutch airstrike that destroyed the Iraqi town of Hawijah, the Netherlands faces a crossroad on its approach to the protection of civilians.

On the night of June 2nd 2015, the Dutch military released a munition on an ISIS car bomb factory in the Iraqi city of Hawijah. The strike lit 18,000 kg of TNT hidden in the factory, causing an immense secondary explosion; in an instant, at least 70 civilians were reported killed and an entire section of the city was reduced to rubble.

The pilots who had conducted the strike immediately reported the extensive destruction of Hawjiah to the Ministry of Defence (MoD). Just two weeks later, the US Central Command of the coalition that the Dutch were contributing to, submitted a report to the MoD emphasising that reports of over 70 civilians killed were credible. Regardless of these reports, the Minister of Defence made statements to parliament claiming that the strikes had caused no collateral damage.

Four years later, under significant media and civil society pressure, the Government acknowledged the civilian harm that had occurred.

In the years since, the Netherlands has done much work to review its policy framework on civilian harm mitigation, tracking, and response. But the independent inquiry set up to look into the incident in 2020 has yet to release its report, and key members of the investigating team have stepped away from the process. Last month, fresh revelations about civilian harm allegations once again made headlines in the Netherlands – though the Minister of Defense still told parliament that an independent examination of the full Dutch campaign was not needed.

Airwars is one of a small group of NGOs who meet routinely with the Dutch MoD to advise on where improvements could be made with regards to its policies and practices on civilian protection. This article reflects on the steps taken since the deadly Hawijah strike, and highlights some of the critical gaps and questions that remain.

The rubble of a building in Hawijah (courtesy of Roos Boer, PAX)

Accountability to the people of Hawijah

In an effort to hold themselves accountable for the harm caused in Hawijah, the Dutch Government and MoD have taken a dual approach. On the one hand, a commission was launched in 2020, named after its lead, Minister of State Winnie Sorgdrager. The Sorgdrager commission aims to investigate the Dutch strike itself, and the civilian harm that followed, rather than the political decisions around the incident.

In parallel, the Government donated a ‘voluntary compensation’ of €4.4million to two international organisations, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) in order for these to deliver aid and development programmes in Hawijah.

In both processes, the Dutch government has been accused of excluding key local voices. When researchers from the charity PAX travelled to Hawijah in 2021, they read a statement to the Mayor and local NGO coordinators from the MoD on the implementation of the IOM project, which had allegedly started in May 2021 with “local authority…closely involved in every step of the way”, only to look up to shocked faces from the key local stakeholders who were apparently unaware of the project and said that they had never been consulted.

PAX’s findings also emphasised that the priorities for response outlined by the people of Hawijah remained unaddressed by the Dutch Government. Namely: an apology from the Dutch Government, and individual compensation payments. Many of those affected by the 2015 blast lost businesses, homes, and sources of livelihood, while simultaneously facing mounting medical bills. For these individuals, a community wide programme focused on restoring access to electricity and demining the city may provide some benefits – but was said to be inappropriate support to individuals harmed by the Dutch strike.

At the same time, the Sorgdrager Commission is experiencing major challenges in fulfilling its own mandate, with two out of three members of the commission apparently no longer able to give time on a regular basis. There remains little clarity on when the report from the Commission will be published, how the investigation has been carried out, and whether or not the voices of civilians in Hawijah have been listened to and taken into account.

Transparency on targeting and civilian harm tracking systems

In addition to the process of attempting to bring accountability to those in Hawijah, the Dutch MoD has been engaging in a process of reviewing its policy framework on civilian harm mitigation, tracking, and response, with a consortium of civil society organisations including PAX, Airwars, CIVIC, Open State Foundations and experts at the University of Utrecht.

The ‘Roadmap Process’ has led to notable progress in some key areas; this incudes an additional paragraph on the risks to civilians from Dutch military action in the reporting requirements outlined in Article 100 of the Dutch constitution. As a result of consistent pressure from the consortium of civil society groups and pressure from the media, the MoD also recently released details of all strikes conducted during their contribution to the anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq and Syria. While this data does not include information on civilian harm, it is an important step in the right direction.

This model of consistent, structured engagement between civil society organisations, many of whom provide a direct link to those affected by Dutch military action, and the MoD serves as a model of inspiration for many of the Netherland’s allies, where Ministries of Defence are less willing to engage in structured engagement, including Belgium and the UK.

However, whilst these are positive steps in the right direction, there are also causes for concern. The same media outlets which revealed Dutch responsibility for the Hawijah blast in 2019, recently published evidence of a further strike in Mosul in 2016, which killed at least 7 civilians. This highlights the importance of continuing to examine allegations of harm from Dutch strikes in the anti-ISIS coalition – as well as the importance of ensuring that the MoD and Government have systems in place to effectively communicate about harm when it is uncovered.

In response to the newest allegations of civilian harm, The Minister of Defence announced a new inquiry into the attack, as well as the aforementioned release of data on Dutch strikes. Yet just a few weeks later, she revealed  that she “see[s] no reason” for wider independent examinations into Dutch involvement in strikes which may have caused civilian harm during the anti-ISIS coalition. A system that is only reactive rather than proactive in addressing civilian harm falls below the standards that Airwars and many of its civil society partners have long identified as best practice.

Moving forward

As we review the Dutch approach to civilian harm mitigation and tracking eight years on from Hawijah, we’re facing positive changes in commitments and outlook, as well as some positive policy reforms. At the same time, we are also facing a city that remains destroyed, with rubble still littering the streets, and a population that is being told that the development programmes which were launched in response to the strike in June 2015 have made great strides – a claim many do not recognise.

This is in no way a unique challenge with Dutch military policy. It speaks to the wider lack of transparency and accountability that permeates so much of modern warfare.

The Netherlands stands out insofar as they now face a crossroads: they can either use the positive changes from the last few years, including the establishment of the Roadmap Process, to become a European leader on civilian harm tracking. Or they fail to implement needed changes in their systems and instead continue to widen the gap between rhetoric and reality on the ground when it comes to civilian harm from Dutch actions.

 

Read more about our coverage of Dutch actions below:

    Dutch Parliament set to debate improvements in policies to protect civilians (2022) After Hawija: Dutch Ministry of Defence maps route forward (2022) Fresh revelations show Hawijah’s people are still far from receiving answers on deadly 2015 Dutch airstrike (2021) After Hawija: The way forward for the Dutch Ministry of Defence (2021) “Some families were completely wiped out”: The Mayor of Hawijah speaks out (2020) Dutch F-16 pilots break their silence on airstrikes and civilian harm (2020) Dutch Ministry of Defence promises significant transparency changes (2019) Investigation accuses Dutch military of involvement in 2015 Iraq airstrike which led to deaths of 70 civilians (2019) ‘That’s just how we do it.’ Minister upholds court’s decision not to identify Dutch civilian harm events (2018) Refusal by The Netherlands Defence Ministry to identify specific civilian harm events impedes natural justice, and runs counter to actions by other Coalition allies (2018) The renewed Netherlands mission against ISIS risks the lowest levels of public transparency and accountability among allies in a very different war (2017) Netherlands airstrikes in Iraq and Syria: Towards improved transparency and public accountability (2016)
▲ Hawijah's industrial area in 2021, showing the damage and destruction that remained widespread (Image via Roos Boer, PAX)

Published

May 2023

Written by

Airwars Staff

Annual report 2022

Airwars annual report for May 2022-May 2023.

The report outlines key highlights from the organisation’s research, investigations and advocacy departments over the time period, as well as strategic objectives and basic financial details.

It includes a foreword by Airwars’ director Emily Tripp, who took over at the beginning of the time period, and is designed to provide an overview of the how the different parts of the organisation overlap to achieve shared goals.

Annual report 2022

Incident date

May 3, 2023

Incident Code

CS1992

LOCATION

قورقانيا, Qurqaniya, Idlib, Syria

A 60 year old male civilian was killed by a declared US drone strike on the outskirts of Qurqaniya just before noon on May 3, 2023. At the time of the strike, US Central Command released a statement that they had targeted a senior Al Qaeda leader without any additional details. On May 2, 2024,

Summary

First published
May 3, 2023
Last updated
May 2, 2024
Strike status
Declared strike
Strike type
Airstrike, Drone Strike
Civilian infrastructure
Agriculture
Civilian harm reported
Yes
Civilians reported killed
1
(1 man)
Cause of injury / death
Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
Airwars civilian harm grading
Confirmed
A specific belligerent has accepted responsibility for civilian harm.
Known belligerent
US Forces
Known target
Al Qaeda
Named victims
1 named
Geolocation
Exact location (other)
Belligerents reported killed
0–1
View Incident

UK MoD for May 2, 2023 – May 2, 2023
Original
Annotated

Report Date

May 2, 2023

Summary

Tuesday 2 May 2023 – RAF Typhoons struck two Daesh terrorist targets in north eastern Iraq.

Detail

UK forces, as part of the coalition, continue to support the Iraqi government in its unrelenting work to prevent any attempts by the Daesh terrorist movement to re-establish a presence in the country.  Careful intelligence analysis revealed that a Daesh group was basing itself at two remote locations in the Hamrin mountains in north-eastern Iraq. Royal Air Force Typhoons were therefore tasked to attack the terrorists at both locations on Tuesday 2 May 2023 in support of an Iraqi security forces operation.  Having confirmed that there was no civilian presence nearby that might be put at risk, the Typhoons employed seven Paveway IV guided bombs in successful precision strikes.

Published

April 5, 2023

Written by

Airwars Staff

Tribunal follows Ministry of Defence and Information Commissioner's refusal to release details of incident

Airwars is to challenge the Ministry of Defence and the Information Commissioner at a tribunal over the refusal to release basic information about the sole civilian the UK accepts killing in the war against the Islamic State, it announced on Wednesday.

During the eight years of the UK’s contribution to the Anti-ISIS Coalition in Iraq and Syria, British aircrafts dropped more than 4,300 munitions, and the Ministry of Defence claims to have killed more than 4,000 ISIS militants. Yet the strike on March 26, 2018 remains the only time the UK government has officially accepted harming civilians.

▲ US and British Reapers are playing a major role in the war against ISIL (Library image via US Air Force/ Staff Sgt. John Bainter)

Published

April 4, 2023

Written by

Airwars Staff

published in partnership with

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Airwars investigation with The Guardian reveals major flaws in the Ministry of Defence's narrative

This article was originally published in The Guardian and written by Airwars’ head of investigations Joe Dyke and Emma Graham-Harrison of The Guardian. The original version can be read here.

It sounded like accountability. Pressed about the UK’s implausibly spotless record in its bombing campaign against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, the British government admitted in May 2018 that its military had killed one civilian in eastern Syria two months earlier.

But the strike the then defence secretary, Gavin Williamson, described to parliament was not logged in the records of civilian casualties kept by its allies in the international coalition flying bombers and drones over Syria and Iraq.

Nor does it appear in a list of UK attacks that killed militants, even though the target was three fighters, an investigation by the Guardian and Airwars, a nonprofit research organisation, has found.

And Syrian human rights groups and journalists, who have collected far more extensive databases of civilian deaths and injuries than foreign militaries, have no record of a civilian death in the area on that day.

So Britain’s only recognised civilian casualty of an eight-year aerial bombing campaign against IS apparently came in a strike that did not officially harm anyone, on a victim who does not appear to officially exist.

The UK government has for years said it fought a “perfect” war against IS in Iraq, killing more than 3,000 militants without harming a single civilian. In Syria, the official record is marred only by the single victim reported to parliament.

This government position has been questioned by top retired military officers and defence officials. The former head of GCHQ and permanent secretary of the Ministry of Defence, David Omand, said it “invites challenge”.

Guardian investigation has identified six strikes in the Iraqi city of Mosul that killed civilians and appear to have been carried out by British forces.

The discovery of serious contradictions in the government account of the only civilian death accepted by UK authorities adds to concerns about Britain’s ability or willingness to document civilian deaths and injuries caused by its bombing campaign.

The only record of this strike, or of the death the government claims it caused, came on 2 May 2018 in a written statement to the House of Commons.

Graphic created by The Guardian of the strike location

Britain’s allies had accepted killing hundreds of civilians in the bombing campaign, now nearly four years old, and pressure was growing over Britain’s claim that its war had not harmed a single Iraqi or Syrian civilian.

The previous day, a BBC investigation quoted an anonymous senior member of the coalition, who claimed the UK was ignoring allegations of civilian harm from its airstrikes.

The statement provided several important details. It described a hellfire missile strike aimed at three militants. “A civilian motorbike crossed into the strike area at the last moment and it is assessed that one civilian was unintentionally killed.”

It said the strike was in eastern Syria, a vast area roughly half the size of England that was relatively quiet at the time.

It made clear the strike was carried out as part of the US-led coalition, and said the attack had been referred to the specialist unit for investigation. “As with any serious incident, the wider coalition also conducts its own investigation and will report in due course,” the statement said.

The coalition assessed only one report of a civilian casualty incident in eastern Syria on that day, giving the location as Abu Kamal, an area on the Iraq-Syria border, the last IS holdout at the time.

In summary of their findings, released several months after Williamson’s statement to parliament, investigators ruled out any civilian deaths in a coalition strike in the area.

Coalition review of the March 26, 2018 strike

“After a review of available information it was assessed that no coalition strikes were conducted in the geographical area that correspond to the report of civilian casualties,” investigators for the alliance concluded.

This conclusion was reached, even though coalition standards of proof were more relaxed than British ones.

It operated on a “balance of probabilities” basis to accept deaths and injuries. The UK had not explained how it determined civilian harm but was believed to have a threshold similar to the “beyond reasonable doubt” used in British courts.

There are three acknowledged British strikes across Syria and Iraq that the coalition accepted caused civilian casualties. The UK continues to insist no civilians were harmed in those attacks.

The strike described to parliament in 2018 is the only known case where the UK says a civilian was harmed, and the coalition found the opposite.

Absence of records

The strike is also inexplicably absent from recently released UK records. The British government last year provided Airwars with logs of location and date for all RAF airstrikes that killed militants, in response to a freedom of information request.

The strike on 26 March described in the statement to parliament should have been included, because it hit three fighters as well as the civilian. But the data shows no British strike that killed militants anywhere in Syria on the day in question.

British authorities have always publicly said the RAF conducted strikes only as part of a coalition in Iraq and Syria.

If a British strike killed a civilian on the date and place, and in the way described by Williamson, these records raise questions about whether it was part of the coalition mission – or if the UK was acting alone, about the target, the justification and the legality of the attack.

If details of the strike raise serious questions, so too does the identity of the civilian allegedly killed.

Syria has relatively high levels of internet connectivity and many non-government organisations that systematically recorded the names of those killed in its long civil war, either to ensure a permanent record or in the hope of justice in the future.

Their multiple databases include many more civilian victims than parties to the conflict, including thewestern alliance, accept killing. Yet none of them have any record of a civilian being killed on that day, in eastern Syria, in circumstances that match those described by Williamson.

Six separate Syrian nongovernmental organisations that collate data on civilians killed in the war told the Guardian they had no recorded deaths for that area on 26 March 2018. They included Deir Ezzor 24, which specialises in the region where the incident took place.

Local Facebook groups for towns around Asshafa, often busy with news of casualties, had no record of any civilians killed in that area on that date.

The absence of any record of a death in Syrian records is not in itself absolute proof that no civilian was killed. Despite the best efforts of Syrian and international researchers, some civilian deaths were never recorded.

However, the conflict in this part of Syria was tapering off in early 2018. Airwars recorded six civilian harm allegations in that region that month, compared with hundreds during intense periods of fighting in cities such as Mosul and Raqqa.

That greatly lessened the likelihood of this strike going unnoticed or undocumented by local communities, who had more time and energy, and took fewer risks, collecting evidence on civilian deaths that did happen.

At the very least, the absence of this civilian from any databases is evidence that the UK government did not reach out to Syrians to investigate the death.

The Ministry of Defence declined to comment directly on discrepancies in the UK public record, with coalition public statements or with data from Syrian groups.

“A highly trained and professional team of UK military personnel assessed a civilian fatality had been caused,” a spokesperson said.

“We remain confident in the transparency of our reporting and data published by the department can be considered as authoritative on UK military operations as possible.” Williamson did not respond to requests for comment on his statement.

UK claims ‘invite challenge’

To date, this strike remains the sole occasion the UK has officially accepted harming civilians in nine years of bombing IS in Iraq and Syria.

In that time British aircraft have launched more than 4,300 munitions, and the Ministry of Defence claims to have killed more than 4,000 IS militants – in effect claiming a “perfect” war in Iraq that did not harm a single civilian, and a near-perfect one in Syria, with just one death.

The coalition overall has accepted its strikes killed at least 1,437 civilians, the majority of them in American strikes.

Omand said the UK government’s position on civilian casualties “invites challenge”.

In a question to an Oxford Media Network event, with the former chief of defence staff Gen Sir Nick Carter, Omand said he did not personally have any details about civilian casualties in the fight against IS but suggested the official claim of a ‘perfect war’ in Iraq lacked credibility.

“Why aren’t we much more on the front foot saying our operations are necessary, they are proportionate but they don’t always achieve the results?” he asked Carter, criticising “the defensive crouch, whenever there’s a suspicion that something hasn’t quite worked out”.

Government openness about civilian casualties should bolster confidence in the military’s ability to protect civilians, and ministers’ willingness to be transparent about how Britain wields lethal powers.

Yet questions about the nature, location and impact of the 26 March strike are so fundamental that the government statement only undermines trust and raises more questions than it answers.

Carter, responding to Omand, backed a strategic argument for greater openness. “I very much agree with you (Omand),” he said. “I’ve always believed one is far better off being honest and transparent. Our institutions are the backbone of our democracy. And those institutions need to be able to speak honestly about what is happening. It mustn’t be politicised.”

Yet the Ministry of Defence is fighting a lengthy and expensive legal campaign to avoid releasing further details of the strike, including the location, after a freedom of information request by Airwars.

The MoD has said publishing details could jeopardise national security, relations with friendly countries and put individual staff at risk, even though other members of the coalition are far more transparent.

The Netherlands has paid millions in compensation to victims of its strikes. This week, after journalists found new evidence of civilian casualties from a Dutch attack in Mosul in 2016, it announced a fresh inquiry into the strike, and recently released large amounts of classified information about other strikes on IS targets.

The US has launched significant policy reforms to learn lessons for future wars. American authorities also released 1,300 documents to the New York Times after a freedom of information request. Many offer granular details of strikes including chat logs between drone pilots.

The UK information commissioner acknowledged Airwars’ complaint that the MoD’s approach appears “less transparent” than its US counterpart.

A tribunal hearing this year will decide on the freedom of information request, in effect determining how much the British public has a right to know about civilians killed in their name in the fight against IS.

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Published

April 4, 2023

Written by

Airwars Staff

Header Image

لقطة شاشة من تحقيق الحروب الجوية في الأضرار التي لحقت بالمدنيين جراء غارات المملكة المتحدة

كشف تحقيق استمر لمدة عام عن مقتل عشرات المدنيين جراء غارات جوية محتملة للمملكة المتحدة

قضت الحروب الجوية و الجارديان العام الماضي في التحقيق في الغارات الجوية البريطانية في العراق وسوريا ، بين عامي 2014 و 2020. ووجدنا أدلة على ما لا يقل عن ست غارات جوية وقعت في الموصل ، يُرجح أنها كانت هجمات بريطانية ، قتلت وألحقت الأذى بالمدنيين في المدينة.

▲ لقطة شاشة من تحقيق الحروب الجوية في الأضرار التي لحقت بالمدنيين جراء غارات المملكة المتحدة

Published

March 24, 2023

Written by

Airwars Staff

Year-long investigation identifies dozens of civilians killed in likely UK strikes

A new Airwars and The Guardian investigation has identified dozens of Iraqi and Syrian civilians killed by likely UK airstrikes, as part of a widespread package picking apart the British claim to have fought a near victimless eight-year war.

Since 2014, the UK has dropped more than 4,000 munitions in the war against the so-called Islamic State. It claims that those strikes have killed more than 4,000 ISIS militants, but has only accepted responsibility for the death of one civilian.

▲ A screengrab from Airwars investigation into UK civilian harm

Incident date

February 22, 2023

Incident Code

CS1991

LOCATION

جديد عكيدات, Jaded Akidat, Deir Ezzor, Syria

One to two men were reportedly killed and up to two other men were reportedly injured on February 22nd 2023 in Jaded Akidat, Deir Ezzor, Syria, as a result of a US-led Coalition backed SDF / QSD militia air raid.  The air drop happened “after midnight.”   Euphrates Post reported that the two injured men were

Summary

First published
February 22, 2023
Last updated
April 30, 2024
Strike status
Likely strike
Strike type
Airstrike and/or Artillery
Civilian harm reported
Yes
Civilians reported killed
0 – 1
(0–1 men)
Civilians reported injured
0–2
Cause of injury / death
Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
Airwars civilian harm grading
Fair
Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
Suspected belligerent
US-led Coalition
Suspected target
ISIS
Named victims
3 named
Geolocation
Town
Belligerents reported killed
0–1
Belligerents reported injured
0–2
View Incident

Published

February 2023

Written by

Anna Zahn, Clarie Alspektor and Sanjana Varghese

Assisted by

Clive Vella and Shihab Halep

In the second year of President Joe Biden’s administration, the number of US airstrikes fell to an historic low as some military engagements appeared to take a different form — with the redeployment of US forces to Somalia and a shift towards targeted raids on Islamic State figures in Syria.

The overall number of declared US airstrikes across all monitored military theatres fell from 441 in 2021 to a minimum of 36 in 2022 – mostly due to the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan. This is the lowest number of strikes the US has declared annually since the 9/11 terrorist atrocities in 2001 and subsequent launch of the so-called ‘War on Terror’.

This drastic drop was also indicative of another shift – while airstrikes seemed to occur with less frequency in all military theatres except Somalia, the number of more loosely defined military operations increased in some, particularly in Iraq and Syria.

2022 saw intense focus on US civilian harm policy – with the launch of the Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan (CHM-RAP). The proposals are supposed to reduce the number of civilians killed in future conflicts and improve the civilian harm review process. It came after years of work organisations like Airwars and journalists documenting how the US military’s process for assessing, reviewing and investigating civilian harm was unfit for purpose.

During the year the Biden Administration also altered US policy on engaging militants outside of recognised conflicts by issuing a Presidential Policy Memorandum to Congress – but not to the public. Airwars joined over 50 civil society organisations in calling on the White House to release the new lethal force policy.

Iraq and Syria

There was a noticeable shift in the kind of operations the US carried out in Iraq and Syria in 2022, and this was reflected in changing language from CENTCOM – the military command responsible for the Middle East and Afghanistan.

In Iraq, the US officially ended its combat role at the end of 2021 – formally transitioning to advising, assisting and enabling the Iraqi Security Forces. However, there are still around 2,500 US troops in the country and it remains unclear what the exact definition and limits of ‘assistance’ entails.

In Syria, the US has yet to make an equivalent official declaration – partly as its estimated 900 troops in the country are there without the support of the Damascus regime. However the pattern of behaviour is similar to Iraq – with most activities in partnership with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), primarily in the north and east of the country.

Based on official reporting, Airwars estimates that the US conducted a minimum of 20 airstrikes in Syria in 2022. This is by far the lowest figure since 2014, when the US-led Coalition against the Islamic State was formed.

CENTCOM’s end of year review stated that US forces carried out a total of 313 operations in Iraq and Syria during 2022, with 686 militants allegedly killed. In Iraq, US forces conducted 191 partnered operations, with at least 220 operatives killed and 159 ISIS operatives detained. In Syria, they conducted 108 partnered operations and 14 unilateral operations – with 466 ISIS operatives killed and 215 detained. CENTCOM does not define what an ‘operation’ is – making it difficult to understand the discrepancy between these figures and those in press releases throughout the year.

The 2022 report by CENTCOM also doesn’t mention civilian casualties. However, Airwars recorded 13 incidents where harm to civilians allegedly occurred from the actions of the US-led Coalition.

In 10 of these incidents, the Coalition was reported as the only belligerent responsible. In those incidents between seven and 13 civilians were reported killed. In the other three incidents, it was unclear from local sources whether the civilian harm was caused by the US-led Coalition, their SDF allies or ISIS militants. In total these incidents could account for up to 15 additional deaths, excluding the casualty toll of a complex ISIS prison breakout that began on January 20th.

That incident was the largest reported US action during the year and came as ISIS militants led a daring raid at al-Sinaa prison, a detention facility where thousands of alleged former fighters were detained. CENTCOM provided aerial and ground-based support and carried out airstrikes throughout the ten days of battle. A year on, limited definitive information exists as to how many civilians and militants were killed by the different military forces and militants involved. The exact number of US strikes conducted also remains unclear – with the US-led Coalition referring only to a “series of strikes.” Airwars monitored a minimum of 13 strikes during ten days of fighting though this is likely an underestimate, with other monitoring organisations estimating the figure to be several dozen. A joint Airwars and VICE News investigation examined the failures that led up to the prison break.

In early February 2022, US Special Operations Forces conducted a raid that resulted in the death of ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, as well as his wife and children – with up to thirteen civilians killed, including six children and four women. Local reporting was conflicted as to whether the civilian casualties were caused by US forces or by Qurayshi detonating a suicide device.

Airwars also tracked an incident where a civilian was reportedly killed when he was run over by a vehicle allegedly belonging to the Coalition on November 14, 2022 in Deir Ezzor, Syria.

It is unclear whether the US-led Coalition in Iraq and Syria, known as Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), is still actively assessing civilian harm allegations. OIR last released a civilian casualty report in March 2022, which indicated that it still had 37 reports of civilian casualties still under review.

Somalia

US direct involvement in Somalia increased in 2022.

US troops were officially withdrawn from the country in January 2021; shortly before President Biden assumed power. Between then and May 2022, rotating groups of American special operations units provided training and assistance to Somali and African Union forces. The then head of AFRICOM – the US military command for Africa – General Stephen Townsend, complained this structure was “not effective.”

In May 2022, Biden approved a plan to deploy several hundred ground forces to the country.

On August 9th 2022, a new head of AFRICOM – General Michael Langley – was instated, while the new Somali administration has requested the US loosen its restrictions on drone strikes.

US strikes have since increased – in total AFRICOM declared 15 strikes in Somalia in 2022, up from 11 in 2021. Airwars tracked a further five strikes that local sources attributed to US forces but were not declared by AFRICOM.

Airwars Graph of US declared strikes in Somalia in 2022 by month

In the 15 declared strikes, AFRICOM claimed 107 alleged al-Shabaab militants were killed, while local reporting or statements by the Somali government put casualties significantly higher. To date it has released only two quarterly civilian casualty assessments which referenced strikes in 2022 (covering the period from January 1-June 30), but did not acknowledge any civilian harm was caused by its actions.

Airwars tracked two allegations of civilian harm in 2022 where local sources pointed to US forces’ involvement. One of these occurred on September 9, when up to ten civilians were reportedly killed in an airstrike south of the capital Mogadishu. The Somali government initially released a statement acknowledging the strike but other sources pointed out that the attack allegedly involved a drone – a capability Somali forces were not believed to have until their recent reported acquisition of Turkish Bayraktar drones. To date no belligerent has accepted responsibility.

Less than a month later, the US declared an airstrike on an al-Shabaab leader, Abudullahi Yare. Local sources alleged that Ibrahim Hassan Dahir was also killed – some referred to him as a civilian and a farmer, while others said that he was the son of a former extremist leader who is under house arrest.

Information gathered from areas under the control of the militant group al-Shabaab is notoriously limited, making determinations of civilian status in Somalia a significant challenge. Multiple sources have called into question the status of those that the US alleges are militants. In a recent report examining the impact of US airstrikes on Jubbaland, a part of Somalia controlled by al-Shabaab, Dutch organisation Pax and journalist Amanda Sperber explained:

“The interviews for this report do raise serious questions about the ability of the US to consistently distinguish between armed men who are not involved with Al-Shabaab, armed pastoralist community members who are forced to work for Al-Shabaab and actual Al-Shabaab fighters. Al Shabaab is thoroughly ingrained in Jubbaland society, which complicates external observations about who is and is not Al Shabaab and can thus hamper proper application of the principle of distinction.”

Yemen

The US officially withdrew its support from the Saudi-backed coalition in Yemen in 2021, in one of Biden’s major first foreign policy announcements. A ceasefire came into effect in the country in April 2022, which was later extended until October.

In 2022, CENTCOM did not declare any airstrikes or operations in Yemen. Airwars tracked two incidents allegedly conducted by US forces, in which civilians were killed and injured. The first was a February 6 drone strike that killed three al-Qaeda militants but also reportedly injured and killed civilians who were nearby – though the exact number was not reported by local sources.

The second alleged strike, on November 30, reportedly targeted the home of a member of Islamist group Ansar al-Sharia, causing secondary explosions which killed up to three civilians and injured up to five others.

Since 2017, Airwars has tracked a minimum of 78 deaths and 28 injuries to civilians resulting from US actions in Yemen. However, CENTCOM has only admitted to causing the deaths of 13 civilians, and injuring a further three. The CIA has carried out sporadic strikes throughout the period, but none of them have been officially recognised.

Yemeni organisations such as Mwatana for Human Rights continue to seek accountability from the Department of Defense, with questions around specific civilian casualty incidents unanswered or inadequately resolved. One victim of a 2018 drone strike, Adel al Manthari, resorted to a GoFundMe campaign in 2022 to pay for his insurance and medical bills.

Afghanistan, Libya, Pakistan

When the US officially withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021, Biden said he retained the right to conduct ‘over the horizon’ strikes from nearby countries. The only acknowledged US airstrike in 2022 was the July drone strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in central Kabul. This was allegedly conducted by the CIA and did not result in any allegations of civilian casualties.

Airwars does not monitor US involvement in Afghanistan, but UNAMA – the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan– tracked civilian casualties in the country for years. Since the US withdrawal, UNAMA has stopped publishing regular updates.

There were no reports of US airstrikes in Libya or Pakistan during 2022.

Methodology note – counting US airstrikes

Iraq and Syria:

Until 2022, Airwars would review AFCENT reporting, press releases published by CJTF-OIR, and other official CENTCOM reports. No AFCENT reports were released in 2022, with only sporadic reporting from CENTCOM and CJTF-OIR throughout the year on strike reporting. To reach estimates of airstrikes in 2022, the following information methodology was applied – see table below for details:

    Where plurals of ‘strikes’ were referenced, Airwars chose a minimum estimate of two airstrikes. However, regarding the Al-Sinaa prison break in Syria, during which CJTF-OIR declared “a series of strikes,” Airwars monitoring of local sources recorded at least 13 incidents where alleged US-led Coalition strikes were reportedly conducted. These incidents allegedly occurred between January 21st and January 28th 2022. Other Syrian-focussed monitoring organisations had estimates of several dozen strikes. When references were only made in official reporting to ‘operations’, without explicit mention to strikes conducted, no strikes were counted. Airwars local monitoring indicates that operations mainly refer to ground actions.
Source Date Language used in official reporting Country Airwars’s estimated number of declared strikes*
CJTF-OIR Jan 4 2022 “four suspects captured” Syria 0
CJTF-OIR Jan 30 2022 “Coalition forces conducted (…) a series of strikes throughout the days-long operation” Syria 13
CJTF-OIR Jun 16 2022 “counterterrorism operation” Syria 0
CENTCOM Jun 27 2022 “CENTCOM Forces conducted a kinetic strike” Syria 1
CENTCOM Jul 12 2022 “U.S. Central Command Forces conducted a UAS strike” Syria 1
CENTCOM Aug 23 2022 “U.S. military forces conducted precision airstrikes” Syria 2
CENTCOM Aug 25 2022 “CENTCOM forces struck at Iran-affiliated militants in the area with AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, AC-130 gunships, and M777 artillery” Syria 3
CENTCOM Dec 11 2022 “Helicopter raid” Syria 0
CENTCOM Dec 16 2022 “6 partnered operations” Syria 0
CENTCOM Dec 20 2022 “three helicopter raids” “partnered operations” Syria 0
CENTCOM Dec 29 2022 “CENTCOM conducted 313 total operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria” Syria/Iraq 0
Estimated Total Strikes 20

* according to US sources and Airwars Local Monitoring

Reporting from AFRICOM for Somalia was consistent with previous years; in 2022, exact numbers of airstrikes were released routinely throughout the year. In Yemen, CENTCOM press releases were used to monitor declared airstrikes – of which there were none in 2022 – while estimates from The Bureau of Investigative Journalism and Airwars monitoring were used to identify possible or alleged strikes for previous years. See our Yemen data page for a full breakdown.

In Afghanistan, Airwars formerly monitored AFCENT reporting – the only reported strike in 2022 was released by the State Department.

It should be noted that the term ‘airstrike’ is also not used consistently across different military forces, and between military commands – see our overview on this here.

For any questions or clarifications on our methodology, please contact info@airwars.org.

Correction issued to update Yemen airstrike data in July 2023 to note the sole inclusion of ‘declared’ strikes in the overall figures for 2020. See below the original sources and extracts Airwars used to assess these 2020 strikes as declared:

    Strike on January 2-3, 2020, though CENTCOM did not confirm the strike, several major news outlets including ABC News and the Washington Post printed comments from US officials who confirmed details of the attack. Strike on January 27, 2020, extract from a White House Statement: “At the direction of President Donald J. Trump, the United States conducted a counterterrorism operation in Yemen that successfully eliminated Qasim al-Rimi”, though not reported via CENTCOM. Strike on May 13, 2020, extract from a press release by the US Department of Justice: “The evidence derived from Alshamrani’s unlocked phones has already proven useful in protecting the American people. In particular, a counterterrorism operation targeting AQAP operative Abdullah al-Maliki, one of Alshamrani’s overseas associates, was recently conducted in Yemen”, though not reported via CENTCOM.
▲ President Joe Biden in the White House Situation Room (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

Incident date

January 21, 2023

Incident Code

CS1990

LOCATION

الشحيل, Al Shahil, Deir Ezzor, Syria

A civilian was injured during a declared raid carried out by CENTCOM and partner forces in Al Shahil on January 21, 2023. Up to three alleged ISIS members were also arrested during the raid. CENTCOM released a statement that “US Central Command forces conducted a partnered helicopter and ground assault raid in eastern Syria, Jan. 21,

Summary

First published
January 21, 2023
Last updated
June 9, 2023
Strike status
Declared strike
Strike type
Counter-Terrorism Action (Ground)
Civilian harm reported
Yes
Civilians reported killed
Unknown
Civilians reported injured
1
Causes of injury / death
Heavy weapons and explosive munitions, Small arms and light weapons
Airwars civilian harm grading
Confirmed
A specific belligerent has accepted responsibility for civilian harm.
Known belligerent
US-led Coalition
Known target
ISIS
Geolocation
Neighbourhood/area
View Incident

Incident date

December 20, 2022

Incident Code

CS1989

LOCATION

الباب, Al Bab, Aleppo, Syria

At least two civilians, including a woman and a child, were reportedly injured in declared British drone strikes on the city of al-Bab on December 20, 2022. An alleged member of ISIS was also injured in the operation. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that a Yemeni person was severely injured by a drone

Summary

First published
December 20, 2022
Last updated
March 29, 2023
Strike status
Declared strike
Strike type
Airstrike, Drone Strike
Civilian harm reported
Yes
Civilians reported killed
Unknown
Civilians reported injured
2–3
Cause of injury / death
Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
Airwars civilian harm grading
Fair
Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
Known belligerent
UK Military
Known target
ISIS
Geolocation
Exact location (other)
Belligerents reported injured
1
View Incident

UK MoD for December 20, 2022 – December 20, 2022
Original
Annotated

Report Date

December 20, 2022

Summary

Tuesday 20 December – a Reaper struck a Daesh target in northern Syria.

Detail

Royal Air Force aircraft have continued to conduct armed reconnaissance patrols against elements of the Daesh terrorist network in Syria, as well as supporting, as required, the Iraqi authorities’ efforts to keep Daesh out of their country.  On Tuesday 20 December, a Reaper remotely piloted aircraft kept close observation on a building near Al Bab in northern Syria where at least one active Daesh terrorist was known to be present.  Great care was taken to ensure that any potential risks to civilians were understood and minimised before the Reaper’s crew fired a salvo of two Hellfire missiles which both struck the target accurately.

Published

November 25, 2022

Written by

Megan Karlshoej-Pedersen

Header Image

The signing ceremony for the Political Declaration on the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas (EWIPA) on November 18th 2022 in Dublin Castle. Over 80 state delegations such as the UK (pictured) officially endorsed the declaration.

An overview of the actions needed

On Friday November 18th, states and civil society joined together in Dublin Castle to officially endorse the long-awaited international Political Declaration on the use of explosive weapons in populated areas (EWIPA). So far, 82 states have signed onto the declaration; this is a similar number to the initial signatories to other international declarations that have created new norms and standards in warfare, such as the Safe Schools Declaration. Among the signatories to the EWIPA declaration are states such as the US, UK, Netherlands, and Belgium, all of which made sizable contributions to the coalition against ISIS in Iraq and Syria that killed an estimated 8,194–13,249 civilians.

According to Action on Armed Violence, when EWIPAs are used, over 90% of those harmed are civilians. Airwars recently put together a series of maps showing the clear and troubling connection between population density in cities and civilian deaths during urban warfare. Even beyond those who are killed immediately, the reverberating effects are often severe and pervasive, with schools, hospitals, livelihoods, and basic resources like food and water becoming inaccessible for years. This has played out in recent conflicts in cities such as Mosul and Raqqa, in which entire city parts were destroyed and have been made uninhabitable.

The Irish-led, UN backed international declaration is a groundbreaking step towards curbing the use of such weapons. It comes at the back of a decade of civil society focus and pressure on this, led by the INEW network, which Airwars is a part of. As with any political declaration, the results are only as good as the implementation. Below, we outline some of the challenges states must address as they begin the process of implementing the EWIPA declaration.

States must be frank about gaps in their current approach

The first step in understanding how to implement the declaration to limit the use of EWIPAs must be for each state to critically examine current gaps in its own approach and engage in a meaningful process to address these. This in itself might be a stumbling block for some; while states such as the US and the Netherlands have shown increasing willingness to address gaps in their approach to the protection of civilians by working with civil society and experts, others have not.

The UK for instance, still falls behind allies in terms of transparency on evidence collection around civilian harm. Under the declaration, states committed to: “Collect, share, and make publicly available disaggregated data on the direct and indirect effects on civilians and civilian objects of military operations involving the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, where feasible and appropriate”. Despite the UK representative in Dublin noting during the signing ceremony that “the UK already has policies and procedures in place to support the implementation”, this has to date not been evident when it comes to public reporting on the effects of UK military actions.

As it stands, the UK maintains that it has evidence of only a single civilian casualty from its actions in the seven year anti-ISIS campaign, for example, despite extensive military involvement. The US, by comparison, has admitted to over 1,400 civilian casualties as part of the Coalition.  When challenged, UK officials tend to emphasise that they are aware that is not a case of lower civilian casualties than in previous conflicts – but of poor evidence gathering. This position was summarised by former Armed Forces Minister, Mark Lancaster, who emphasised in 2019 that; “[I]t is not our position that there has been only a single civilian casualty as a result of our military action. What we are saying is that we have evidence of only a single, or what we believe to have been a single, civilian casualty.”

In spite of this oft-repeated recognition that the evidence gathering mechanisms of the UK are not able to accurately reflect the reality on the ground, there is, to our knowledge, no process in place to improve this approach and little willingness to engage with civil society to address this. If this is not addressed, there will be a significant gap between the rhetoric of UK leadership when it comes to EWIPA and the reality on the ground.

States must build clarity on who is responsible for implementing the EWIPA declaration on a national level

The second step states must take to implement the EWIPA declaration is to gain better internal understandings of who will be involved in its implementation. This must include those focusing specifically on EWIPA, but also those focusing on topics such as human security, the protection of civilians, humanitarian response, development, diplomacy, and all the other elements required to protect those caught in conflict from being harmed by explosive weapons.The structures behind overseas military engagements are complex, quick changing, and lines of responsibility are often murky. Yet it is only if all involved in such operations, across parliament, ministries of defence, and ministries of foreign affairs and overseas development, are dedicated to limiting the use of EWIPA, understanding their impact, and tracking civilian harm that occurs if they are used, that implementation will be effective.

States must be open to civil society inclusion in the implementation of the EWIPA declaration 

Civil society actors, many of us united under the INEW banner, played a significant role in the development of the EWIPA declaration and the advocacy that brought states to the process, a fact that was acknowledged by a large number of states at the conference in Dublin. We stand ready to support the implementation in national contexts and across international coalitions. Many civil society organisations have spent years – sometimes decades – developing protection mechanisms and civilian harm tracking mechanisms, as well as conducting research into valuable lessons on the impact of EWIPA. Civil society organisations are also often direct links to the communities affected. It is in all of our interests that these resources are effectively shared with those in power.

In those states where there is a history of poor transparency and accountability on civilian harm and civilian harm tracking, governments and their militaries must also commit to a certain level of transparency on the implementation of the EWIPA declaration. They should work with civil society actors to understand the gaps in their current approach and set up milestones for implementation.

Looking forward

The endorsing ceremony was a promising step towards recognising the immense harm that these weapons have caused in recent years – and the harm they will continue to cause as their impact reverberates through communities. If the declaration is implemented well, fewer civilians will be harmed by explosive weapons in their cities, towns, and camps.

Yet there are pitfalls each state must avoid if their implementation of the declaration is to be meaningful. They must be frank about current gaps in their system and must be willing to address them. They must gain an oversight of everyone who will play a role in the effective implementation of EWIPA. And they should work with civil society actors who have resources to share and stand ready to support implementation.

Additional resources:

    Implementation Brief: Political Declaration on the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas, CIVIC, November 2022 (here) Safeguarding Civilians: A Humanitarian Interpretation of the Political Declaration on the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas, Human Rights watch and the International Human Rights Clinic at Harvard Law school, October 2022 (here) Implementing the Political Declaration on the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas: Key Areas and Implementing Actions, INEW and Article 36, November 2022 (here) Over 80 Countries Committed to Curb Use of Explosive Weapons, Now Comes the Hard Part, Bonnie Docherty, Human Rights Watch for Just Security, November 23rd 2022 (here)
▲ The signing ceremony for the Political Declaration on the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas (EWIPA) on November 18th 2022 in Dublin Castle. Over 80 state delegations such as the UK (pictured) officially endorsed the declaration.