On October 31, 2023 confirmed Israeli strikes on the densely populated Jabalia refugee camp killed at least 149 civilians, including 85 children. A further 280 civilians were reported injured by the director of the nearby Indonesian Hospital.
An additional strike hit the same location the following day and the full casualty assessment for that incident will be reviewed separately by Airwars. Israel has confirmed that it conducted both attacks, with the stated target being Hamas leader, Ibrahim Biari, and “his base,” according to IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari. Munitions experts speaking to The Guardian indicated that the IDF used so-called "bunker buster" munitions in the strike: 2,000 pound bombs with an estimated crater size of 40 feet which cause an “earthquake like” phenomenon on impact.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights raised concerns on Twitter/X that the strikes may have been “disproportionate attacks that could amount to war crimes.” Though no official civilian casualty estimate has yet been conceded by Israeli forces, IDF Spokesperson Richard Hech acknowledged that the IDF knew that civilians were present, and said that civilian harm was a “tragedy of war.”
On October 12, 2026, nearly three years after the attack, Haartetz published testimonies of four Israeli soldiers from intelligence and drone units who described changes in civilian harm protocols, with some specifically detailing decisions made regarding the October 31 strike targeting Ibrahim Biari. According to one of the soldiers interviewed, "We knew Biari was underground, beneath several large buildings, but we couldn't pinpoint which building he was under [...] So they chose several buildings that were still occupied and decided to bring down all the buildings above the tunnel he was in."
According to Haaretz, "those in the strike cell knew that a particularly large number of civilians could be harmed. Military Intelligence's calculations of potential collateral damage put the figure at roughly 250 to 300 people, so the decision was referred directly to the chief of staff for approval. The IDF, by contrast, says its collateral damage estimate was around 100 people. The soldiers say far more were ultimately killed."
Another soldier who spoke to the newspaper described a damage assessment that had been carried out following the deadly strike, saying "Among other things, we relied on figures coming from Hamas, which we considered relatively plausible, even if they weren't 100 percent accurate [...] As time went on, we realized the death toll was around 250. I remember being stunned that we were bringing down several densely populated buildings, killing and injuring hundreds of people, to kill a battalion commander who, just a few weeks earlier, hadn't even been someone we were supposed to gather intelligence on."
Airwars has identified at least 118 civilians killed, including ten cases involving the death of more than one member of the same family. In three of these cases, families were reportedly killed in their entirety.
The official Telegram channel of the Al-Qassam Brigades - Hamas' military wing - posted that "seven civilian hostages," including three foreign passport holders, taken earlier from Israel into Gaza, were also killed. These civilians have been included in Airwars’ upper fatality estimate only, as their have not yet been otherwise corroborated as resulting from this bombing.
Numerous social media posts by relatives grieving unnamed family members killed in the attack have also been accounted for in Airwars’ civilian casualty range for this incident. When one source mentioned that a civilian and “his whole family” were reportedly killed, but the victims could not otherwise be identified, Airwars counted two civilians killed in its ranges as a minimum. In cases where sources indicated that “children” were killed without providing further information on the number of victims, Airwars counted two children killed as a minimum.
Sources also reported that “a large number” of casualties were still under the rubble after the strikes, with Hamas officials, quoted by the National, reporting that 120 people were still missing on November 2, three days after the strike. These individuals have not yet been included in the Airwars casualty toll.
None of the sources reviewed indicated that there had been prior warning of the strike. According to one of the soldiers involved who spoke to Haaretz, "We didn't initiate an evacuation because it was important to kill [Ibrahim Biari, the targeted Hamas leader] before he could get away."
“Apocalyptic scenes”
Pictures and videos released following the strikes showed vast craters, along with dozens of onlookers standing on the edges and people searching for survivors. Local sources widely referred to the bombing as a “massacre.” Photographs published by local and international sources showed entire housing blocks leveled.
CNN reported that survivors talked about “apocalyptic scenes in the aftermath of Tuesday’s strike”, with one eyewitness saying “it felt like the end of the world.” “Children were carrying other injured children and running, with grey dust filling the air. Bodies were hanging on the rubble, many of them unrecognizable. Some were bleeding and others were burnt,” Mohammad Al Aswad told CNN.
The Washington Post reported that “Palestinians carried away the injured and dead on blankets and mattresses.” The Guardian described “body bags piled up with horrific speed at the morgue of the nearby Indonesian hospital in Beit Lahia, and then outside the building” and added that “the wounded filled [the Indonesian Hospital] beds or were raced to Dar al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City, where medics from the Médicins Sans Frontiers aid group struggled to find space even for badly injured children”.
“Young children arrived at the hospital with deep wounds and severe burns. They came without their families,” said Mohammed Hawajreh, an MSF nurse who was quoted by the organization in a statement condemning the attack. “Many were screaming and asking for their parents. I stayed with them until we could find a place, as the hospital was full with patients.”
Similarly, @AJA_Egypt described scenes with “rows of corpses and shrouds…Jabalia martyrs piled up in the courtyard of the Indonesian Hospital.”
One source on social media (@rdooan) said the bombing left “a hole filled with the corpses of Palestinian families,” while another source stated that “the bodies of families are crowded on top of each other."
Efforts to locate and recover victims buried in the rubble continued after the strikes, with The Guardian reporting that following the strike, “rescuers combed with their hands through surface layers of a tangled mass of concrete and steel which hours earlier had been homes in the Jabalia refugee camp in Gaza. They were searching for survivors, or the bodies of victims, which the immense force of an Israeli airstrike had left near the surface. Those trapped deeper may be entombed for months.”
Mahmoud Basal, a spokesperson for the Palestinian Civil Defense emergency services, told The Washington Post that 20 buildings had been destroyed by the strikes, while Al-Arabiya wrote that the bombing “blew up an entire residential neighborhood.” One source specified that the location hit initially was the Al-Tarnis area of the camp. A number of sources qualified the bombing as a “massacre.” Journalist Anas Al Sharif described the destruction of dozens of homes in what he referred to as the “most populated area in the world." Note: Anas Al Sharif was himself killed in a declared Israeli strike on August 10, 2025. [See ISPT100825t]
The Associated Press (AP) spoke with Abu al-Qumssan, a witness of the strike, who described what happened: “In a matter of seconds, it turned into night,” Abu al-Qumssan said. “It felt like containers of explosives and iron were dropped on us. It was a very strange and bloodcurdling sound. I couldn’t make out the streets from homes,” he said. “People and bodies evaporated.” He went to his uncle’s house, only to find the flimsy metal structure had been crushed into nothing.
Victims identified
In many cases, victims were identified on social media by survivors, relatives or friends.
The Abu Al-Qoumsan family
At least 21 members of the family of Al-Jazeera broadcast engineer Muhammad Abu Al Qoumsan were killed in Jabalia. A relative of the Abu Al Qoumsan family, Mahmoud Abu Al Qoumsan, announced on Twitter/X the deaths of his loved ones, namely: the three brothers Abu Al Diab Abu Al-Qoumsan (Mahmoud Abo Al Qoumsan’s father), Abu Anas Abu Al-Qoumsan, Muhammad Diab Abu Al-Qoumsan ("Abu Firas"). He also announced the deaths of Abu Firas Abu Al Qoumsan’s wife (name not provided), her two sons Wasl Muhammad Diab Abu Al-Quoumsan and Mohannad Muhammad Diab Abu Al-Qoumsan, and her two daughters Nabough Muhammad Diab Abu Al-Qoumsan and Abrar Muhammad Diab Abu Al-Qoumsan.
According to Twitter/X account @Gaza_Shaheed, Mohannad "was born on September 27, 2007, and grew up in the Jabalia refugee camp, where his grandparents were displaced from the village of Deir Suneid after the foreign enemy attacked it and expelled its farmers in 1948." The post described Muhannad as "a handsome and energetic young man who, like the other children in the camp, had dreams," stating that "the enemy ended his dreams, and he was martyred along with his father, mother, brothers (Wasel, Abrar, and Nabough), uncles (Abdullah and Hussein), and a large number of his family members, neighbors, and other displaced people." It listed the date of Mohannad's death as October 23, 2023 and included a smiling photo of the teenage boy.
Mahmoud also announced the deaths of his sister, Umayya Abu Al-Qoumsan, and of his sister-in-law, described as the wife of his older brother, Diab Abu Al-Qoumsan. While his sister-in-law's name was not provided, the names of her children were: two daughters Rahaf Abu Al-Qoumsan and Layan Abu Al-Qoumsan, and three sons Abdullah Abu Al-Qoumsan, Mohammed Abu Al-Qoumsan, and Aboud Abu Al-Qoumsan.
Another sister of Mahmoud, Imam Abu Al-Qoumsan, was also killed, along with her three sons Yamen, Zain and Yazeed.
Um Mohammed Abu Al Qoumsan, another family member, said that her sister “Jamila Yusef Abu Al-Qoumsan, mother of Rami Ahjazi” was also killed in the incident. It is unclear if Jamila was one of the women mentioned previously.
Ra’ed Abu Al Qoumsan announced the deaths of his father, of his uncle, Abu Firas, and his uncle’s wife and children (the uncle, his wife and children have already been included above), of his sisters and their children, of his brother’s wife and her children. Ra'ed did not provide the names or ages of the victims he commemorated, and Airwars was not able to determine how many of them corresponded to individuals mentioned by other sources, such as those listed above.
On social media, Al-Jazeera staff identified an additional member from Al Qoumsan family unit, Marwa Basil Ahmed Abu Al-Qoumsan, as one of the fatalities of the October 31 strike.
To avoid double counting the deaths of members of Abu Al-Qoumsan family, where names were not provided by other sources, Airwars has considered these individuals were already named in the sources above in minimum estimates, though they have been considered as additional family members in our maximum estimate.
On December 17, 2024, Airwars reviewed the named members of the Al-Qoumsan family against the five Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) lists that were published over the course of the year after the strike. In checking Marwa’s name, Airwars found that the MoH lists recorded her age as nine years old. As such, Airwars has updated her age status from adult to child.
On December 17, 2024, Twitter/X user @MarkZlochin alerted Airwars of a discrepancy in the age classifications for Nabough Abo Al Qoumsan and Abdullah Abo Al Qoumsan. Referring to a Facebook post by Mahmoud Abu Al Qoumsan posted on October 31, 2024, Airwars originally classified Nabough and Abdullah as children. This was a mistake, as Mahmoud had referred to Nabough and Abdullah as “daughter” and “son” respectively, but not as children.
As Airwars originally published this incident in November of 2023, the relevant Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) lists were not yet available. Reviewing the incident on December 17, 2024, Airwars found that Wasel Abo Al-Quoumsan (19 years old), Nabough Abo Al Qoumsan (24 years old), Layan Abu Al Qoumsan (9 years old), and Marwa Basil Abu Al Qoumsan (9 years old) appeared on the second MoH list which was published on January 7, 2024. Their names have been included in all subsequent lists.
Matching Nabough to an individual included in the second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) lists, Nabough’s age when killed is now listed as 24, and she is no longer categorized as a child. Wasel had been classified as an adult, and recorded by the MoH as having been 19 when he was killed, his classification remains the same. While Airwars was unable to match Abdullah to an individual included in the MoH lists, based off of a review of photos shared by Abdullah’s loved ones, coupled with the fact that he was older than his brother Mohammed, who the website “Shireen List” listed as 17 years old, Airwars has updated his age status to 'adult.'
During the December 2024 review, Airwars also assessed that Marwa Basil and Layan, both of whom had previously been classified as adults, were both recorded by the MoH lists as nine years old. As such, their age status has been adjusted to 'child.'
Airwars also received concerns that the 21 members of the Al Qoumsan family that Airwars found to have been killed on October 31, 2023 were in fact killed in a strike the following day. As all of the individuals included in this incident were named by online sources on October 31, 2023, as of December 17, 2024, Airwars maintains the veracity of the individuals named in this incident.
Matching Nabough to an individual included in the second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) lists, Nabough’s age when killed is now listed as 24, and she is no longer categorized as a child. Wasel had been classified as an adult, and recorded by the MoH as having been 19 when he was killed, his classification remains the same. While Airwars was unable to match Abdullah to an individual included in the MoH lists, based off of a review of photos shared by Abdullah’s loved ones, coupled with the fact that he was older than his brother Mohammed, who the website “Shireen List” listed as 17 years old, Airwars has updated his age status to 'adult.'
The Siraj family
A man identified as Abdul Salam Siraj was reportedly killed alongside all of the members of his family. Ismail Mohammad Foda posted on Facebook: “My friend Abdul Salam Siraj, his entire family was exterminated in Jabalia… his mother, his wife, his two daughters, two sisters, three brothers, and his uncle’s entire family.” Airwars has been unable to separately identify the uncle’s family, and so has counted these as at least two individuals in our minimum range.
The Khudair Ali family
Muhammad Ali announced on Twitter/X the deaths of nine of his relatives that he described as “my beloved ones, my heart and my soul, my support in my country, my cousins and my sisters, in the treacherous massacre in Jabalia camp.”
He identified the victims Fadi Khudair Jaber Ali and his wife (name not provided), Muhammad Khudair Jaber Ali, Malak Khudair Jaber Ali (described as this source's cousin), Khadra Jaber Ali (the source's aunt), and Khadra’s children: Ahmed, Zainab and Muhammad. Zainab, who was pregnant at the time, was killed alongside her son whose name is currently unknown.
Muhammad Ali also named his cousin’s sons Haidar and Kanan Muhammad Haidar Al-Daour as people killed in the strike. Another source said that “Umm Fadi” (presumably Fadi's mother according to local naming conventions) was grieving her sons and daughters, all killed in the Jabalia bombing.
The Masoud family
A friend of Omar Issa Rajab Mas’oud (“Al-Abeka”) announced Omar’s death, alongside the deaths of Omar's wife Dunya Bashir Azat Mas’oud and their four children (a son and three daughters). Airwars has since identified Omar and Dunya's children as Issa, Farah, Bisan and Tamam Omar Issa Mas’oud.
The source described Omar as a former prisoner who was detained for 20 years for killing an Israeli national, before being released, getting married and having children. The sources reviewed did not specify if Omar Masoud was imprisoned for being a member of a militant group, nor did they indicate whether Omar was a member of a militant group at the time of his death.
The Abu Sultan family
Nine members were reportedly killed from the Abu Sultan family, which one source said was killed in its entirety.
Omar Mustafa Mahmoud Abu Sultan and his wife Sahar Abu Sultan (Al-Hoor), and their five children (four sons and one daughter): sons Mahmoud Omar Mustafa Abu Sultan, Ahmed Omar Mustafa Abu Sultan, Muhammad Omar Mustafa Abu Sultan, Abdullah Omar Mustafa Abu Sultan, and daughter Shahd Omar Mustafa Abu Sultan.
Ahmed Omar Abu Sultan’s wife, and his daughter were also reportedly killed (though names were not provided by the source). On the deaths of the Abu Sultan family members, Facebook user Suhil Yahya posted: “There are no relatives or loved ones left, they are all gone”.
Airwars has since identified Ahmed's infant daughter as Sahar Ahmed Omar Abu Sultan.
The Hamad Family
Medhat Khalil and at least two other sources reported the deaths of Kamal Hamad “Abu Diaa” and his son (unnamed) in the Jabalia bombing.
The Al-Tanani family
At least one source reported that two children from the Al-Tanani family were killed, namely Ahmed Salah Dhiyab Al-Tanani and Mahmoud Muhammad Dhiyab Al-Tanani. Their ages were not provided by the source.
The Okasha family
At least 33 members of the Okasha family were reported killed in the strikes, according to AP. According to relatives Mohammad Okasha and Abood Okasha, the victims included husband and wife Bilal Naeem Suleiman Okasha and Rawnd Nasser Khalil Okasha ("Umm Kinan") and alongside their three children. Two of their children have been identified as Miral Bilal Naeem Okasha and Mouj Bilal Naeem Okasha. The relative Ziad Suleiman Abd al-Jawad Okasha ("Abu Iyad"), and his wife, Manal Mahmoud Mustafa Okasha (Al-Najjar), were also killed, alongside their son Youssef Ziad Suleiman Okasha.
Raed Naeem Suleiman Okasha; his wife; his children Ahmed Raed Naeem Okasha and Moaz Raed Naeem Okasha; Muhammad Naeem Suleiman Okasha and his three children, Rakan, Ameed, and Masa Muhammad Naeem Okasha were also listed among the fatalities. Muhammad and his children were reportedly survived by his wife/their mother, Samah Abu Saltah who was reportedly born in the Balata camp, and moved between Gaza and Nablus.
Also killed were Yasser Naeem Suleiman Okasha; his wife; his children Alma, Lama, Nour and Bahaa Yasser Naeem Akasha; Nael Naeem Suleiman Okasha, his wife Islam Muhammad Al-Kafarna Okasha; and their sons, Muhammad and Ali Nael Naeem Akasha. A video posted by Facebook user Mohammed Okasha (a nephew of Bilal, Raed, Muhammad, Nael, and Yasser Naeem Okasha) on November 2, 2023 showed Yasser Okasha in combat gear holding weapons. As such, Yasser has been graded as a "suspected militant" and was therefore excluded from the civilian casualty count for this incident.
Facebook user Mohammed Okasha also listed his uncle, Thaer Naeem Suleiman Okasha, and his family as additional victims, along with Muhammad Fayez Muhammad Al-Zwaidi.
Per local naming conventions, Bilal, Raed, Muhammad, Yasser, Nael and Thaer Naeem Okasha are believed to have been brothers.
A post from Mona Sahle added additional names, offering condolences to her cousin, Nasser Okasha ("Abu Muhammad"), for the loss of his daughter, her husband, and their children.
The Alyan family
Jehad Al Sharawi posted a memorial to her uncle Muhammad, uncle Hussein, and the Alyan family for the loss of: Youssef Muhammad Alyan, Mahmoud Jabr Alyan, Karim Majid Alyan. Ziad Alyan also posted a memorial for his brother Mahmoud Jabr Alyan.
The Omrain family
Faraj Abo Mohammed announced five deaths from Abu Al-Omrain family: Ahmed Akram al-Abd Al-Omrain, Reem Muhammad Abu Al-Omrain (Al-Firi) - described as Muhammad’s wife, and three children: Rital Youssef Ramadan Abu Al-Omrain, Abdul Karim Youssef Ramadan Abu Al-Omrain and Zaher Ramadan Zaher Abu Al-Omrain.
The Rayyan family
Reuters published a video of a Jabalia resident, identified as Abdel Kareem Rayyan, holding a paper listing the names of the 15 family members that he claimed were killed in the Israeli strikes. Abdel Kareem Rayyan declared to Reuters: “I lost my whole family, 15 of them. They were innocent, just staying in the camp. What wrong did they do? All of them were killed. My sister’s house with her children, my brother’s house with his children, all of my siblings, no one left except me and my younger brother. Fifteen people, these are their names – they are innocent an kind, it’s literally a massacre, complete destruction. All of the alley, 20 houses were demolished”.
Airwars was able to identify the following victims from the list he showed to Reuters: Raed Ahmed Hassan Rayyan, Hanna Muhammad Hassan Rayyan, Sa’ed Raed Ahmed Rayyan, Maher Raed Ahmed Rayyan, Anwar Raed Ahmed Rayyan, Jannah Raed Ahmed Rayyan, Raed Sa’ed Raed Rayyan, Hanaa Sa’ed Raed Rayyan, Mahmoud Sa’ed Raed Rayyan, Ghassan Mohammed Khalil Rayyan, Israa Mohammed Khalil Rayyan, Mujahid Mohammed Khalil Rayyan, Masa Mohammed Khalil Rayyan, Iman Saed Abou Hamdan, and Karam Abdulkarim Rayyan.
Another man identified as Hassan Ahmed Rayan told Reuters in the same video “The house had 15 people in it, until this moment we cannot reach any of them. Since yesterday, we’ve been trying to find anyone, but we couldn’t. There is no equipment, no civil defense teams, it’s all personal efforts to remove the rubble.”
On social media, Ahmad Abi Ibrahim announced the deaths of his relatives: his cousin and brother-in-law, Raed Rayyan ("Abu Saed"); Ahmad's “beloved sister Hanna”, also described as "Saed’s mother"; Saed’s sister, identified as Anwar; and her sons. Janna was mentioned to as a younger sister who “recently celebrated her success in high school."
Facebook user Nassma Jamal wrote: “May God have mercy on the martyrs of the Rayyan family, relatives and cousins, who were martyred while they were steadfast and sitting in their homes in the Jabalia camp massacre. The martyr Abu Saed Raed Rayyan, his wife, children and some of his grandchildren, his son Saed Rayyan, his wife and children, and the wife of cousin Abu Ghassan Rayyan and her children. Fifteen people, most of them children.” Airwars has estimated the minimum number of children killed in the Rayan family to be six, though the exact number is not yet clear.
Maher Rayyan was described as a ”decent young man, [who] spent his life in obedience to God, between the mosque and the university. He completed his education as a doctor and volunteered to treat the wounded in the Indonesian Hospital at the beginning of the outbreak of the current war on Gaza.”
In addition to the victims identified alongside other family members outlined above, Airwars also identified an individual named Juma Muhammad Al-Shaarawi, whose death was announced by Baraa Samir describing Al-Shaarawi as a “good and decent young neighbor.”
Unnamed victims
As in many incidents of civilian harm, not all victims were named by sources.
The 'Izz Al Din Al-Qassam Brigades official page' posted on Telegram that seven civilian hostages taken from Israel, including three holders of foreign passports, were killed. The identities of the hostages were not provided.
Airwars also archived a number of videos where relatives or friends spoke about their losses surrounded by scenes of desolation.
In one video published by @Roaastudies and by Middle East Eye, an unnamed Palestinian man present at the scene of the incident was recorded explaining to the camera that he had three children and “not one has survived.” He was seen collapsing at the site of the bombing screaming: “My three children are all gone! My three children, Oh God! My three children! That other day, he told me to come, he told me “Come Dad.” A man holding him replied, “Maybe we’ll find one, maybe we’ll find one alive.” The camera holder then said, “this is my friend, he just lost his family.”
@ramiaalibrahim published a video of another Palestinian man walking around the rubble screaming “my son is a martyr, oh God!” An additional video published by @Yasser_Gaza on Twitter/X showed a grieving mother who reportedly “lost all of her children.“
On social media, one video released by @Palestinealaa19 showed a father and his son at the scene of the bombing – the young adolescent was crying over bodies in plastic bags of members of his family lined up on the street. The father could be heard telling his son “you can’t collapse, you can’t cry, this is our destiny, we are not better than them, look they are all around us, we don’t forget them and the other 8,000 people – without counting those under the rubble, at least we got out, at least we knew who they are.”
In a video published by @AJArabicnet, a child who was critically injured in the bombing asked his relative to give him water, while another video released by @Ahmed_GR00 showed a young girl who was injured and had blood on her clothes. The source alleged that the girl lost her eyesight but was not aware of her fate at the time of recording.
@shamel__news published a video of two young girls and one young boy rescued from the rubble in Jabalia. Twitter/X account @visegrad24 mentioned the case of a young boy who was rescued from the rubble by rescuers at the site but did not list the child’s identity. Documenting similar scenes, AP recorded “Young men [carrying] the limp forms of two children from the upper floors of the crumbling frame of one damaged apartment building, while helping down another child and woman. It was unclear whether the children were alive or dead. Gray dust, apparently left by pulverized concrete, seemed to coat nearly everything.”
Twitter/X user @Mohammed78990 published a video of a baby followed by this comment: “painful scene from the Jabalia massacre.” The same source explained that the infant's mother was killed in the bombing. In another video released by @AJA_Palestine, a young man and his young sister were filmed sitting on the rubble crying over the death of their father.
Overall casualty estimates provided by sources
Initial reporting following the first Israeli bombing on October 31 recorded “a number of martyrs” and “dozens” injured, with Bellingcat setting the initial death toll at “at least 40 killed,” followed by The Guardian, which initially reported that “47 bodies were recovered from the rubble after an explosion in several houses in Jabalia camp,” analyzing video footage published by Agence France-Presse.
The director of the Indonesian Hospital, Mohamed el-Ron, told the BBC that the hospital recorded 400 casualties, “including 120 dead,” the majority being “women and children.” In a press conference held at that hospital on October 31, doctors announced that “at 4:00 p.m. the Indonesian Hospital received a high number of killed and injured after an attack on residential block in Jabalia Camp.” The medical staff stated that “one staff member lost four members of his family during the strike.” The same source added that the number of civilian casualties was bigger than their capacity. A number of sources reported “hundreds of injured and killed” following the two declared rounds of strikes on Tuesday and Wednesday, with @ajmubasher reporting “more than 400 martyrs and wounded,” without providing further details.
On October 31, the Palestinian Ministry of Health (MoH) initially counted “50 martyrs and around 150 wounded and dozens under the rubble in a heinous Israeli massacre that targeted a large area of homes in Jabalia camp.” Later in the day, the MoH said it feared at least 100 had been killed in the bombing, and hundreds others injured, according to @ariel_oseran.
Airwars’ civilian fatality range reflects the number of individuals identified by local sources (both named and unnamed). As per our methodology, where specific numbers of civilians were not explicitly mentioned (such as references to ‘multiple’ children), we have counted these as at least two casualties. Very few sources were able to report on exact numbers of those injured in the first strike, so Airwars has taken the number originally shared by the Indonesian Hospital of 280 injured civilians.
Israel Defense Forces statements on civilian harm
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hech acknowledged that the Israeli strike had “destroyed a big chunk” of the Jabalia camp. Hech declared that Israeli forces were aware that the area they targeted was an area where many civilians lived but refused to comment on any civilian casualties resulting from their actions. He justified the strike saying that their focus was on “a senior Hamas commander” who “sadly…was hiding again as they do behind the [sic] within civilians. And that’s all I can say at this point. (…).”
However, speaking with Haaretz, Nadav Weiman, executive director of Breaking the Silence, criticized this justification, saying, "You can't authorize the potential killing of 300 civilians for a battalion commander [referring to the assassination of Biari], or the killing of 20 civilians for every Hamas truck driver, and still tell the public we did everything we could to avoid harming innocent people."
The Guardian reported that, according to the IDF, “some cavities seen in images of destroyed camp buildings were created by the collapse of tunnels that had been dug by Hamas, which [IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari] said chooses to put key military infrastructure below areas where many civilians gather.”
Military spokesman Jonathan Conricus, quoted by AP News, stated that the apartment buildings collapsed “only because the vast underground Hamas complex had been destroyed.” Similarly, AP News reported that “Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari said an underground Hamas installation beneath a targeted building collapsed, toppling other nearby buildings. Conricus later said the main strike had hit between buildings. “We don’t intend for the ground to collapse,” he told reporters. “But the issue is that Hamas built their tunnels there and that they’re running their operations from there.”
Yet, at least one soldier interviewed by Haaretz indicated that Israeli forces may have been aware of the immense danger to civilians before carrying out the strike, with the news outlet reporting that "those in the [IDF] strike cell knew that a particularly large number of civilians could be harmed. Military Intelligence's calculations of potential collateral damage put the figure at roughly 250 to 300 people, so the decision was referred directly to the chief of staff for approval."
Though the IDF did not confirm the exact numbers of civilian casualties predicted, nor the number of civilians who were wounded and killed in the strike that it carried out, statements made by IDF spokespeople indicated that Israeli forces have acknowledged civilian harm as a result of their strikes on Jabalia camp. Airwars has therefore graded the civilian harm status of this incident as “confirmed” and archived relevant excerpts from belligerent statements in the ‘strike report’ section of this assessment.
On November 1, 2023, the Israeli Air Force Twitter/X account posted a video of an airstrike, along with an image of a young man they identified as Muhammad Atsar. The post claimed that Muhammad was Hamas’ “head of the anti-tank system” and that he was killed in the airstrike. The coordinates of the site of the recorded strike matched those determined by Airwars’ research team for this incident. As such, this source has been used to grade the strike status of this incident as "declared." However, beyond the Israeli Air Force statement, Airwars did not find reports among. the sources reviewed corroborating that someone by the name of Muhammad Atsar was indeed killed in this incident. As such, this individual has not been included on the list of those killed in this incident. This will be updated should additional information become available.
Combatant fatalities
The October 31 strike reportedly targeted Ibrahim Bari, described by the IDF as a top commander of Hamas’s central Jabalia battalion, and a key commander during the deadly attack inside Israel on October 7. Israeli forces claimed that Biari had also been “leading fighting in northern Gaza from a network of tunnels under the camp,” according to The Guardian.
According to The Guardian, Daniel Hagari announced Biari’s death alongside “scores” of Hamas militants – without providing the total number of combatants killed. He added that the strike on the building Biari was in “led to the collapse of other things because there was a very extensive infrastructure there.”
@AvichayAdraee on Twitter/X released an IDF video in Arabic in which Israeli forces claimed to have killed Hamas leader Ibrahim Al Bayari (Biari) on October 31 in middle of Jabalia, alongside “many elite members” of Hamas. During a briefing (quoted by The Guardian), IDF spokesperson Hagari declared that “There are dozens of terrorists that have been killed with [Biari], and the ‘metro’ underneath has collapsed, so it made this hole that you see in the area. We are dealing with terrorists that build the system of infrastructure of terror underneath the Jabalia refugee camp for a big reason. They want this picture of destruction.”
Hamas militants “strongly denied the presence of one of its leaders in the refugee camp” according to CNN, with AP adding that “Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem denied the [Israeli] military’s claim, saying it was trying to justify “its heinous crime” against civilians.”
Updating the civilian and militant casualty tolls
Due to the fragmentory nature of the reporting at the time of publishing, Airwars did not originally identify all names of those killed in this strike. In October 2026, after conducting additional research into the case, a further 32 individuals were found named on social media. This included nine members of the Al-Bahnsawi family, eight members of the Qarmout family, and 14 members of the Abu Nasr family. Among the new victims identified was also likely militant Ali Samir Al-Bahnsawi, who was named by Hamas’ armed wing, Al-Qassam, on their Telegram channels in tributes posted on April 30 and May 1 2026.
This new information shifted our understanding of the likely civilian toll at Jabalia. Originally Airwars estimated a minimum of 126 civilians had been killed, based on references to death tolls circulated at the time. This original estimate reflected both 118 named individuals, as well as reporting around unnamed deaths. With the addition in October 2026 of 31 named civilians, this takes our named civilian total to 149 civilians - increasing our overall minimum civilian fatality toll for this incident. An upper range of 156 has now also been adjusted to account for additional unconfirmed statements by Al-Qassam that Israeli hostages had also been killed in this incident, though this has not been otherwise reported. When the IDF withdrew from Jabalia in May 2024, officials confirmed that the bodies of seven hostages had been recovered from the area, though did not provide further details about where and when they had been killed.
Munitions used
While a video of the moment of the bombing was released by IDF forces on social media, the IDF spokesperson reportedly refused to comment on the number or types of munitions used or identify “which craters were caused by tunnel collapses” – instead claiming that Israel would provide information at a later stage, according to The Guardian.
The Guardian reported “at least five craters in the densely populated refugee camp, which weapons experts said were left by the use of multiple JDAMs – joint direct attack munitions – in the airstrike.” Former Pentagon munitions expert Marc Garlasco also told The Guardian that “the biggest crater at the site looked like a hit with a GBU-31.” “There are other bombs it could be. That one just fits best with all the evidence. The estimated crater is around 40 ft [12 meters]."
A former United Nations weapons inspector Chris Cobb-Smith, told The Guardian, “The munition is almost certainly JDAM, either a GBU 31 (Warhead Mark 84) general purpose bomb or possibly a GBU 56 (Warhead BLU 109) bunker buster. Both about 2,000lb [900kg].”
According to The Guardian: “The GBU (guided bomb unit) is a precision-guided air-to-surface weapon system. It is part of the Israeli arsenal provided by the US and also manufactured by Israel under contract. These Boeing-manufactured GBUs use a tritotal, which is an explosive mix of TNT and aluminum powder, used commonly in air-dropped bombs. The Israeli air force recently posted images of dozens of GBU-31 being loaded on planes. “This fits our analysis. You can see the size of the bomb and guidance straps, which are the signature of the GBU-31,” added Garlasco.””
Garlasco also told The Guardian that “the type of munitions he believes were used would have met stated Israeli military goals of hitting underground tunnels, but also caused extensive damage above ground. If they are set to have a delayed detonation, which is one of three options on the bomb, they cause an earthquake-like phenomenon when they do explode. “JDAMs will burrow through the ground, and have a delayed detonation, causing the building to collapse on itself. This explains the extent of the damage,” he said. “Buildings also collapse due to the blast wave, not just tunnels.”
According to Bellingcat, on October 31, “Reports began to appear online about 2:30 p.m. local time (…) A Reuters live stream filming towards Jabalia and Gaza City appears to have captured a large explosion at approximately 2:24 p.m. local time, consistent with the earliest reports of the strike on Jabalia.” This observation matched The Guardian’s findings, which noted that “The first online reports of Tuesday’s attack came at about 2:30 p.m. local time. A Reuters live stream captured the moment of impact a few minutes earlier.” According to The Guardian, relying on Reuters video footage and other media content, the exact location of the strike was narrowed to buildings at the intersection of Al Mouhawel and Al Almey streets.
Since the war between Israel and Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza began in October 2023, the Palestinian Ministry of Health (MoH) in Gaza has been publicly releasing, in Arabic, the names of those it says have been killed by Israeli actions, along with their ID numbers, ages, sex, and, more recently, information about how the death was recorded.
Airwars has matched individuals to the first list where their name appeared. In regard to this incident, most names are matched to the second 'Palestinian Ministry of Health List of Fatalities in Gaza' list, which was released on January 21, 2024.
The names of Omar Issa Rajab Mas’oud, Dunya Bashir Azat Mas’oud, Issa Omar Issa Mas’oud, Manal Mahmoud Mustafa Okasha (Al-Najjar), Youssef Ziad Suleiman Okasha, Raed Naeem Suleiman Okasha, Ahmed Raed Naeem Okasha, Moaz Raed Naeem Okasha, Naeem Raed Naeem Okasha, Saja Raed Naeem Okasha, Rakan Muhammad Naeem Okasha, Bilal Naeem Suleiman Okasha, Muhammad Nael Naeem Akasha, Ali Nael Naeem Akasha, Jumaa Mohammed Jumaa Al Sharawi, Raed Ahmad Hassan Rayya, Hanna Muhammad Hassan Rayyan, Sa’ed Raed Ahmed Rayyan, Maher Raed Ahmed Rayyan, Anwar Raed Ahmed Rayyan, Jannah Raed Ahmed Rayyan, Raed Sa’ed Raed Rayyan, Israa Mohammed Khalil Rayyan and Karim Majid Hussein Alyan are matched to the third 'Palestinian Ministry of Health List of Fatalities in Gaza' list, which was released on April 1, 2024.
The names of Rital Youssef Ramadan Abu Al-Omrain and Zaher Ramadan Zaher Abu Al-Omrain are matched to the fourth 'Palestinian Ministry of Health List of Fatalities in Gaza' list, which was released on April 30, 2024.
The names of Rawnd Nasser Khalil Okasha, Miral Bilal Naeem Okasha, Mouj Bilal Naeem Okasha, Alma Yasser Naeem Akasha, Lama Yasser Naeem Akasha, Nour Yasser Naeem Akasha and Thaer Naeem Suleiman Okasha are matched to the fifth 'Palestinian Ministry of Health List of Fatalities in Gaza' list, which was released on July 24, 2024.
The names of Youssef Muhammad Abdul Karim Alyan, Ghassan Mohammed Rayyan and Mujahid Mohammed Khalil Rayyan are matched to the sixth 'Palestinian Ministry of Health List of Fatalities in Gaza' list, which was released on September 15, 2024.
The names of Farah Omar Issa Mas’oud, Bisan Omar Issa Mas’oud, Tamam Omar Issa Mas’oud and Masa Mohammed Khalil Rayyan are matched to the 12th 'Palestinian Ministry of Health List of Fatalities in Gaza' list, which was shared with Israeli newspaper Haaretz and made public by @GabrielEpsteinX in February 2026.