Geolocation
Airwars assessment
Six alleged AQAP militants were reportedly killed by a US drone strike in the Al-Atf area in the Qayfa region of Bayda governorate, on the evening of February 11th 2018, according to AFP. Several sources, however, instead suggested that the strike killed at least five pro-Hadi fighters, unaffiliated with AQAP. There were no known associated reports of civilian harm.
A US Central Command spokesperson later stated, in an email to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, that a strike had targeted AQAP in Bayda governorate on February 11th. The strike was also confirmed by CENTCOM to the Long War Journal. Since there were no known reports of other US strikes in Bayda on that day, this event is treated as declared.
A Yemeni security official told AFP that “an unmanned drone — likely American — bombed [an AQAP] vehicle in the area of Qayfa, where Al-Qaeda is active”, killing six.
Multiple local-language sources, including Yemenat and Erem News, instead reported that the strike had killed five, and wounded two, pro-Hadi fighters in the area, according to military sources. In reports by Sahaftak, Hunaradaa, and others, sources named those killed as Saddam Ahmed Al-Ahmi Al-Joufi, Saif Abdullah Abad Al-Joufi, Sinan Abdullah Muhammad Al-Joufi, Mujahid Salem Ahmed Al-Joufi, and Abdo Ali Al-Shumali. Al-Arabi further named the two injured as Salim Al-Joufi and Shaja Ahmed Ali Al-Joufi, according to local sources. One source, Hunaradaa, also described the dead and wounded “resistance” members as “tribesmen”.
A pro-AQAP feed posted a lament, on February 11th, for those named, as well as a further five unnamed injured persons, describing them as “brothers”, according to researcher Dr Elisabeth Kendall (@Dr_E_Kendall). In her tweet, she indicated that this could describe “core” members, or “collaborators”.
Local sources told Al-Arabi that the dead had been fighting against Houthi forces in the area. AQAP forces have previously been reported to have fought alongside pro-government forces against Houthi troops.
The incident occured in the evening.
Geolocation notes (1) [ collapse]
Reports on the incident mention the village of Al Atf (العطف) in the Al Quraishyah District (مديريه القريشيه), for which the generic coordinates of the ladder are: 14.590694, 44.920478. Due to limited satellite imagery and information available to Airwars, we were unable to verify the location further.
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Reports on the incident mention the village of Al Atf (العطف) in the Al Quraishyah District (مديريه القريشيه), for which the generic coordinates of the ladder are: 14.590694, 44.920478. Due to limited satellite imagery and information available to Airwars, we were unable to verify the location further.
Imagery:Google Earth
Summary
Sources (24) [ collapse]
Media
from sources (3) [ collapse]
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Local-language sources reported that five pro-government fighters were killed, and two injured, in the strike on February 11th 2018. (@alsakaniali, February 12th 2018)
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A pro-AQAP media feed posted a lament for those named, describing them as "brothers" (@Dr_E_Kendall, February 12th 2018)
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One source included this image, seemingly of one of those reportedly killed in the alleged strike, though it was unclear which specific individual is pictured (Hunaradaa, February 11th 2018)
US Forces Assessment:
Original strike reports
In a major move toward transparency, US Central Command (CENTCOM) provided details to FDD’s Long War Journal on US air strikes against Al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen. Since early 2017, the military previously provided little information on the Yemen air campaign, typically providing only an aggregate number and limited detail on high-value target strikes.
In an email to LWJ, CENTCOM’s Major Josh T. Jacques disclosed the dates and locations of the last five months of strikes in Yemen. The information revealed that since the beginning of 2018, the US campaign against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen has focused on three governorates: Hadramout (eight strikes), Al Bayda (17), and Shabwa (three), demonstrating the eastern reach of the terrorist group.
Last year’s publicized strikes were concentrated in the central governorates of Al Bayda and Marib.
Location of US air strikes against AQAP and the Islamic State in 2018:
– Jan. 2018: Ten total strikes. The US conducted 8 strikes against AQAP in Bayda on Jan. 1, 3, 9, 12, 13, 20, 25, and 29. An additional strike against AQAP in Shabwah occurred on Jan. 26. An additional strike against the Islamic State occurred on Jan. 12 in Bayda.
– Feb. 2018: Six total strikes, all in Al Bayda governorate. Strikes occurred on Feb. 7, 11, 12, 16, and 24 (two strikes were conducted on Feb. 24).
– Mar. 2018: Seven total strikes, six of which occurred in Hadramout. Strikes occurred on Mar. 4 (two strikes), 5, 7, 8, and 13. An additional strike in Bayda occurred on March 29. [AQAP’s apparent entrenchment in eastern Yemen is concerning. In addition to the concentration of strikes in Hadramout, CENTCOM previously disclosed that AQAP operated training camps in the governorate as recently as April 2018, when they were targeted by American strikes.]
– Apr. 2018: Four total strikes, one each in Shabwah (April 26) and Al Bayda (April 23), and two in Hadramout (both on April 11).
– May 2018: One strike, in Shabwah on May 14.
– Jun. 2018: No strikes to date.
The US military has stepped up its counterterrorism campaign against al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen as well as the Islamic State since President Trump took office in 2017. Last year, the US launched 131 strikes (125 against AQAP and six against the Islamic State), nearly tripling the previous yearly high of 44 strikes in 2016.
At the current pace, the US will fall far short of that mark; there have been 28 strikes reported by CENTCOM in Yemen in the first five months of 2018.
This counterterrorism campaign has targeted AQAP’s infrastructure, including its training camps and media operations, which serve as a hub for al Qaeda’s global communications. The US has killed several mid-level AQAP leaders and media officials in its air campaign.
Despite suffering setbacks after seizing large areas of southern and central Yemen between 2015-2016, AQAP remains a persistent threat to both the embattled Yemeni government and US interests worldwide. AQAP still controls remote rural areas in Yemen and operates training camps. The group’s master bomb maker, Ibrahim al Asiri, who has engineered several bombs which have evaded airport security, remains one of the most wanted jihadists on the planet.