Airwars maintains an extensive all-source database of known allegations in which civilians and friendly forces have been reported killed by the Coalition, Turkey or Russia in Iraq and Syria. Our individual case studies include photographs, videos, names of the dead, and links to all known sources. These reports represent our best current understanding of events and are updated as new information becomes available.
Summary civilian harm findings for Coalition air and artillery strikes: August 8th 2014 to October 31st 2018
The Coalition refers to those belligerents involved kinetically in the war to defeat so-called Islamic State – and presently comprises the US, UK, France, the Netherlands and Iraq (in Syria). Previous belligerents include Canada, Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Jordan.
From August 8th 2014 to October 31st 2018 an overall total of between 17,870 and 26,594 civilian non-combatant fatalities had been locally alleged from 2,702 separate reported Coalition incidents, in both Iraq and Syria.
Of these, Airwars presently estimates that a minimum of 6,716 to 10,268 civilians are likely to have died in Coalition actions. However, some caution is needed given the significant challenges of casualty verification at present.
The Coalition has so far confirmed an overall total of at least 1,114 civilian fatalities from its actions to October 28th, and has conceded responsibility for 257 of 2,659 specific claimed incidents which it says caused 1,029 civilian fatalities. In addition, 85 further civilian deaths have been confirmed by the alliance in unidentified incidents, which were the result of non-US Coalition actions. (Airwars places the fatality range from these confirmed events higher, at 1,405 to 2,529 killed.)
In addition to these confirmed events, it is our provisional view at Airwars that a further 5,266 to 7,694 civilian non-combatants appear likely to have been killed in 1,078 further incidents where there is fair and uncontested public reporting of an event – and where Coalition strikes were confirmed in the near vicinity on that date. Some 205 of these likely incidents were in Iraq (1,538 to 2,261 reported deaths) and 873 events in Syria (with a reported fatality range of 3,727 to 5,432.)
At least 1,349 children and 885 women are reported to be among those killed in confirmed and likely events, along with 5,134 or more civilians reportedly injured. Airwars presently lists the names of 3,156 reported civilian fatality victims from confirmed and likely Coalition events.
Across both nations, 246 alleged civilian casualty incidents have so far in our view been discounted, ie are highly unlikely to have involved Coalition aircraft (768 to 1,170 claimed deaths). This categorisation is often a result of Coalition feedback on alleged incidents. An additional 398 to 558 civilians reportedly died in 66 events where the reporting appears fair, but where it remains unclear whether the Coalition carried out any attack in the vicinity on the date in question.
A further 2,371 to 2,752 claimed deaths are attributed to 429 alleged Coalition airstrikes which are presently weakly reported or single-sourced.
An additional 6,576 to 10,328 asserted fatalities resulted from 693 contested events (for example, claims that the Iraq Air Force or proxy ground actions might instead have been responsible.)
Some 141 further contested events (918 to 1,361 deaths) may have involved Russian aircraft in Syria. And 21 additional contested events (139 to 179 deaths) were attributed variously both to the Coalition and to Turkey.
The Coalition has additionally conceded four ‘friendly fire’ incidents. It has confirmed it likely killed Iraq Army forces at Fallujah on December 18th 2015, which the public record indicates killed 10 to 23 Iraqi troops. On September 17th 2016, between 15 and 65 Assad regime troops died in a confirmed Coalition action in Syria. On October 5th 2016, between 18 and 21 friendly Sunni tribal militia were killed in a Coalition strike near Qayyarah. And on April 11th 2017 the Coalition killed 18 SDF forces near Tabqah in Syria. A fifth reported event on January 27th 2018 which reportedly killed eleven Iraqi security personnel is under investigation.
Several hundred additional ‘friendly fire’ deaths of allied ground forces and non-friendly Syrian regime forces have been attributed to the Coalition from 76 more claimed incidents, with varying levels of credibility.
To date the Coalition has conceded 257 civilian casualty events – and Airwars is seeking to work with the Coalition to better identify the locations of these incidents.
In its own latest monthly civilian casualty assessment – published on October 26th 2018 – the Coalition noted the following: “The Coalition conducted a total of 30,247 strikes between August 2014 and end of September 2018. During this period, based on information available, CJTF-OIR assesses at least 1114 civilians have been unintentionally killed by Coalition strikes since the start of Operation Inherent Resolve.
In the month of September, CJTF-OIR carried over 310 open reports from previous months and received one new report. The assessment of 104 civilian casualty reports has been completed. Out of the 104 completed casualty reports, none of the reports were determined to be credible and resulted in zero unintentional civilian deaths. One of the reports was determined to be duplicate report that had previously reported and the remaining 103 reports were assessed to be non-credible. A total of 207 reports are still open.“
Estimated minimum civilian deaths from Coalition airstrikes from August 2014
Updated hourly. The map plots all Confirmed and Fair minimum civilian fatality events from Coalition airstrikes in both Iraq and Syria, aggregated by unique location.
Graphics by Airwars – Basile Simon. Geolocation by Christiaan Triebert.
How we grade alleged incidents
Because of wide variations in the quality of casualty recording, Airwars uses a grading system for events alleging non-combatant or ‘friendly fire’ deaths from Coalition airstrikes. These are:
Confirmed: Where the coalition or an individual ally has accepted responsibility for the killing of non-combatants or allied forces in a particular incident.
Fair: Reasonable level of public reporting of alleged incident from two or more generally credible sources (often with biographical, photographic or video evidence). Crucially, there are also confirmed coalition strikes in the near vicinity for that date. We believe these cases in particular require urgent investigation.
Fair, but with no confirmed strikes: Locations provided by the Coalition in its daily reports can be overly vague, and on occasion it has not reported strikes on particular locales. At other times the Coalition might state categorically that it did not carry out an airstrike at a named location on a particular date – despite fair evidence of an airstrike in the vicinity.
Weak: Single source claims. Even so, these may feature biographical or photographic detail from a reputable source, with coalition strikes also confirmed in the vicinity.
Contested Events: Where there are claims of both coalition and Iraqi or Syrian aircraft having carried out strikes at a location.
Discounted: Those cases where our researchers or others have identified either that those killed were combatants; that no Coalition or Russian strike took place at the location; or where an incident did not appear to result in any civilian casualties.
Also see our Methodology
Airwars conducts daily monitoring of local Arabic-language media and social media sites in both Iraq and Syria for claims of Coalition-inflicted casualties. We also track local casualty monitors, NGOs, international agencies and international media. We permanently archive all reports, and follow up on allegations with the Coalition wherever possible.
Extensive additional civilian casualties are caused by other parties to both the Iraq and Syria conflicts. These include Iraqi and Syrian government forces and allied militias; the Russian, Turkish and Iranian militaries; and militant and terror groups including so-called Islamic State/Daesh, and al Qaeda linked factions in Syria.
A number of monitoring groups based in the Middle East and elsewhere issue daily reports which cover not just civilians killed by the Coalition, but all of those affected by the wars in Iraq and Syria. You can find more information below:
Syrian Network for Human Rights
Violations Documentation Center
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
Raqaa is Being Slaughtered Silently
Bellingcat (geolocation of strikes)
Iraq Body Count
United Nations Mission in Iraq
Coalition Press Office