In May, President Obama admitted for the first time US drones have caused civilian casualties in the covert drone war (Image: Peter Souza/White House).

Bureau data suggests the CIA is killing fewer people in each strike in Pakistan.

Lack of official transparency means it remains unclear who is carrying out strikes in Yemen.

No reports of US operations in Somalia but al Shabaab continues to launch attacks.

Pakistan

June 2013 actions

Total CIA strikes in June: 1

Total killed in US strikes in June: 7-9, of whom 0 were reportedly civilians

All actions 2004 – June 30 2013

Total Obama strikes: 318

Total US strikes since 2004: 370

Total reported killed: 2,548-3,549

Civilians reported killed: 411-890

Children reported killed: 168-197

Total reported injured: 1,177-1,480For the Bureau’s full Pakistan databases click here.

A single CIA drone strike hit Pakistan in June. The attack, on June 7, killed seven including Mutaqi (aka Bahadar Khan), described by some sources as a ‘key Pakistan Taliban commander’.

The attack came two days after new prime minister Nawaz Sharif used his inaugural address to demand an end to US drone strikes. After the attack, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned deputy US ambassador Richard Hoagland to protest.

Tensions in the region continue to grow after the killing of Pakistan Taliban (TTP) deputy leader Wali Ur Rehman in a drone attack in May hardened the stance of the militant group. Rehman’s death dashed hopes of peace talks between the militant group and Pakistan authorities in Islamabad. The TTP has since claimed that a spate of bloody attacks were in retaliation for Rehman’s death, including the murder of ten climbers and their guide in the mountainous north of the country.

While peace negotiations have faltered in Pakistan, across the border the US is trying to negotiate peace talks with the Afghan Taliban. The militant group opened its political office in Qatar – a move that provoked a visceral response from the Afghan government.

Six-monthly trendsMuch has been written about the steep decline in the number of US drone strikes in Pakistan: strikes are now at their lowest level since early 2008. The number of reported civilian deaths is also at an all-time low, a trend first high-lighted by the Bureau in 2012.

The average number of people being killed in each drone strike has fallen sharply too, an analysis of the Bureau’s data shows. An average of four people now die in each attack – just a third of the rate in the first six months of 2010.

Research by the Bureau and others indicates that some of the highest casualties in the US drone war occur when the CIA carries out ‘signature strikes’ – attacks on groups of men judged to be behaving in a suspicious manner.

The rate CIA drones kill people per strike has continued to fall since the first half of 2009.

The smaller death tolls seen in recent months suggest the CIA may be limiting its use of the controversial tactic.

The Bureau showed its analysis in the graph above to law professor Rosa Brooks who recently testified before a Senate committee on the constitutional and counterterrorism implications of the US drone wars. She said the White House’s use of drones has come under pressure and the drop in the casualty rate is ‘almost certainly an effort to respond to the criticisms’. However, she added, this is ‘the optimistic theory’. ‘The less optimistic theory would simply be they have started running out of targets.’

The first half of 2013 began with a flurry of strikes in January before the CIA scaled back operations. This coincided with a move by the White House to more transparency about the drone programme. In February new CIA director John Brennan discussed the Agency’s targeted killing programme with the US Senate during his confirmation hearing. And in May President Obama for the first time acknowledged US drone strikes have killed civilians, in a major foreign policy speech.

The past six months have been bookended with the death of two significant militant leaders. Maulvi Nazir, one of the most senior commanders of the so-called ‘Good Taliban’, was killed in January. And Wali Ur Rehman, deputy leader of the Pakistan Taliban (TTP) was killed in May.

In February a leak to NBC provided a summary of the secret legal justification that allows the US to kill its own citizens in drone strikes. In April another leak to the McClatchy news agency was reported as showing the that US is not clear who it has been killing in Pakistan. According to the leaked secret documents many killed by drones were merely classified as ‘unknown‘.

Yemen

June 2013 actions

Confirmed US drone strikes: 0

Further reported/possible US strike events: 2

Total reported killed in US operations: 0-15

Civilians reported killed in US strikes: 0-1

All actions 2002 – June 30 2013*

Confirmed US drone strikes: 46-56

Total reported killed: 240-349

Civilians reported killed: 14-49

Children reported killed: 2

Reported injured: 62-144

Possible extra US drone strikes: 80-99

Total reported killed: 284-454

Civilians reported killed: 25-50

Children reported killed: 9-11

Reported injured: 78-101

All other US covert operations: 12-77

Total reported killed: 148-377

Civilians reported killed: 60-88

Children reported killed: 25-26

Reported injured: 22-111Click here for the full Yemen data.

A 10-year-old boy reportedly died in a suspected US drone strike in June, alongside up to six alleged al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants. The boy, Abdulaziz, was the younger brother of alleged AQAP commander Hassan al-Saleh Huraydan – described as a key figure in enabling the movement of money and fighters from Saudi Arabia to Yemen. They were killed, reportedly along with Saudi nationals, in a vehicle as they travelled through the northern province of al Jawf on June 9.

The strike was the second of the month. The first hit Abyan province on June 1, killing alleged senior AQAP militant Awadh Ali Lakra and a second alleged militant, Lawar.

There was strong evidence to suggest both were drone strikes. Yemen Air Force commander Rashid al Janad said he was ‘unaware of any air strikes that have been launched’ by Yemeni planes. And June’s second attack targeted a moving vehicle which is potentially beyond the Yemen Air Force’s capability. However the Bureau could not confirm US involvement – or the use of drones – in either.

Six-monthly trendsThe covert drone war has been openly discussed by senior figures in the US administration. So too has President Obama’s wish to become more transparent about the drone programme – an effort to ‘push back against a lot of these allegations that are not true‘. And Brennan hinted at giving the Pentagon control of drone strikes outside Pakistan during his Senate hearing. Some suggest this would make the programme more transparent because unlike CIA strikes, Pentagon drone strikes can be publicly acknowledged by the government.

Moving the programme to military control is not a guarantee of more transparency. Earlier this year the US military significantly reduced its openness about its use of drones in Afghanistan, reversing an earlier decision to regularly publish data about the use of drones. It had originally agreed to declassify the data following months of discussions with the Bureau, but reclassified the data, claiming attention had ‘disproportionately focused’ on drones.

In Yemen the Pentagon has also run a targeted killing programme for four years or more, and does not publish details of these operations.

So far this year the Bureau has recorded four confirmed US strikes on Yemen. However it is not clear who carried out up to 12 other reported strikes. In the first half of 2012 this pattern was more pronounced – the Bureau recorded at least 21 confirmed US drone strikes, but cannot confirm US involvement in 42 more reported attacks.

US involvement cannot be confirmed in the majority of reported drone strikes.

The Yemen government has claimed its airforce carried out many of the ‘other’ attacks. But the Yemen Air Force is incapable of flying missions at night, let alone carrying out precision strikes such as many of those reported in Yemen.

At least 183 people died in these unconfirmed drone attacks in the first half of 2012 – more than double the dead from confirmed US operations. And at least 28 people have died in possible drone strikes so far in 2013, double those killed in confirmed US attacks.

Journalists have struggled at times to investigate reported drone strikes, particularly in 2012 when neither government nor AQAP forces would allow journalists into areas under al Qaeda’s control. Retrospective investigations have uncovered evidence of US involvement in strikes, and discovered previously unreported civilian casualties.

This year investigators from human rights charities HOOD and al Karama and, independently, journalists from a Swedish radio programme visited the site of a January strike. They found fragments of Hellfire missiles, confirming it was a US attack. And they discovered the Yemeni government had acknowledged the deaths of two civilians in the strike, a university student and a teacher. This is despite anonymous government sources previously naming all the dead as al Qaeda militants.

More than half of this year’s reported strikes took place in January, before an 85-day pause while Yemen’s numerous tribes convened for the start of reconciliation talks in the capital. As this conference continued the drones returned in April killing at least four people in Wessab. A week later journalist and activist Farea al Muslimi, who was born in Wessab, testified before the US Congress about the effect of drones on Yemen and its people.

* All but one of these actions have taken place during Obama’s presidency. Reports of incidents in Yemen often conflate individual strikes. The range in the total strikes and total drone strikes we have recorded reflects this.

Somalia

June 2013 actions

Total reported US operations: 0

All actions 2007 – June 30 2013

US drone strikes: 3-9

Total reported killed: 7-27

Civilians reported killed: 0-15

Children reported killed: 0

Reported injured: 2-24

All other US covert operations: 7-14

Total reported killed: 47-143

Civilians reported killed: 7-42

Children reported killed: 1-3

Reported injured: 12-20Click here for the Bureau’s full data on Somalia.

Once again there were no US drone strikes reported in Somalia in June – the tenth consecutive month with no reported US operations in the country. However al Shabaab continues to threaten Somali security. The militant group once again successfully penetrated the heightened security area around Mogadishu airport to attack the UN Development Programme offices on June 19. As many as 22 people were killed in the assault and ensuing 90-minute gun battle.

Al Shabaab militants were driven from Kismayo late last year by a combination of Kenyan soldiers and local militia. Yet the government in Mogadishu has failed to exert sufficient influence on the southern port, and fighting between competing clans and militia on June 7 and 8 left 31 civilians dead and 38 injured, according to the World Health Organisation. At least seven were killed in further clashes on June 26 and 27.

It emerged that the US operates its drones over Somalia using a satellite relay station in Ramstein, Germany.

Another drone reportedly crashed in Somalia, this time in the north of the country in the autonomous region of Puntland. It is unclear who the drone belonged to, in contrast with an earlier incident in May when the Pentagon unusually claimed a crashed surveillance drone as its own.

Six-monthly trendsThe Bureau has not recorded a single US drone attack or other covert operation in Somalia in the first half of 2013. Whether this is due to poor reporting from the region or an absence of attacks is unclear.

This is in contrast to 2012 when there were a number of reports of US drone strikes in the African country including two that killed British citizens. This was reported on in a major Bureau investigation published by the Independent in February which revealed that two former British citizens died in US drone strikes in Somalia in 2012 after having their British citizenships removed. Bilal al Berjawi was killed by a drone in January 2012, with his childhood friend and fellow alleged militant Mohammed Sakr dying in a US drone strike the following month.

Both were UK citizens until Home Secretary Theresa May signed an order in 2010 removing their UK nationality while they were out of the country. May has the power to remove someone’s citizenship on national security grounds. Only individuals with dual nationality can be deprived of their British citizenship. But being born in the UK is not a protection. The Bureau has identified five dual nations who were born in the UK who have been deprived of their British nationality – including Mohamed Sakr. 

Sakr’s lawyer Saghir Hussain told the Bureau there appeared to be a link between the deprivation of citizenship and subsequent US action. Leading immigration lawyer Ian McDonald QC said that stripping people of their citizenship ‘means that the British government can completely wash their hands if the security services give information to the Americans who use their drones to track someone and kill them’.

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A US drone crashed in al Shabaab-controlled southern Somalia this month

(Photo: Twitter)

The Pakistan Taliban’s deputy commander is killed in a CIA drone strike

A CIA drone attack in Yemen kills four, reportedly including a senior leader in al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

The Pentagon admits a US surveillance drone has crashed in Somalia

Pakistan

May 2013 actions

Total CIA strikes in May: 1

Total killed in strikes in May: 4-7, of whom 0 were reportedly civilians

All actions 2004 – May 31 2013

Total Obama strikes: 317

Total US strikes since 2004: 369

Total reported killed: 2,541-3,540

Civilians reported killed: 411-884

Children reported killed: 168-197

Total reported injured: 1,174-1,479For the Bureau’s full Pakistan databases click here.

The only drone strike reported to hit Pakistan in May killed Wali Ur Rehman, second-in-command of the Pakistan Taliban (TTP). It was the first US attack in Pakistan for 42 days and came less than a week after President Obama set out his new drone policy. In a major speech, the president stipulated that a strike could only target individuals who posed ‘a continuing, imminent threat to US persons’, and that the US did not carry out revenge attacks.

Rehman was a prominent Taliban figure responsible for numerous bloody terrorist attacks within Pakistan. The US also blamed him for the December 2009 Khost bombing in which seven CIA officers were killed. An unnamed Pakistani intelligence officer said his death ‘is crippling for [the Taliban’s] top command’. The TTP held Pakistan partially responsible for the attack, promising ‘revenge in the strongest way’ and pledging, ‘attacks in Pakistan will continue’.

This was the first CIA attack in Pakistan since the elections on May 11. Prime minister-elect Nawaz Sharif had started preparing the ground for peace talks with the TTP. However after Rehman’s death Taliban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan said: ‘The government has failed to stop drone strikes, so we decided to end any talks with the government.’

Rehman’s successor, Khan Said (38), was selected hours after Rehman’s death. The attack that killed the Taliban commander, hit a mud-built house in North Waziristan in the early morning. Up to six alleged militants were also killed. They were identified by the Nation as Nasarullah; Shahabuddin; Adil; Nasiruddinand Saeedur Rehman; and Fakhar ul Islam, Rehman’s aide.

Earlier in the month the Obama administration admitted killing four US citizens in covert drone strikes, three in Yemen and one, whose death had previously only been a rumour, in Pakistan. The strike in Pakistan killed Jude Kenan Mohammed on November 16 2011 (Ob255).

Yemen

May 2013 actions

Confirmed US drone strikes: 1

Further reported/possible US strike events: 1

Total reported killed in US operations: 4-11

Civilians reported killed in US strikes: 0

All actions 2002 – May 31 2013*

Confirmed US drone strikes: 46-56

Total reported killed: 240-349

Civilians reported killed: 14-49

Children reported killed: 2

Reported injured: 62-144

Possible extra US drone strikes: 78-96

Total reported killed: 275-442

Civilians reported killed: 25-48

Children reported killed: 9-10

Reported injured: 76-98

All other US covert operations: 12-76

Total reported killed: 148-366

Civilians reported killed: 60-87

Children reported killed: 25

Reported injured: 22-111Click here for the full Yemen data.

* All but one of these actions have taken place during Obama’s presidency. Reports of incidents in Yemen often conflate individual strikes. The range in the total strikes and total drone strikes we have recorded reflects this.

The CIA conducted at least one drone strike in Yemen this month, reportedly killing Jalal Balaabed, described at a senior figure in al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). He commanded Abyan’s capital, Zinjibar, when the militant group controlled the province in 2011 and 2012. However al Mahfad district security chief Colonel Ahmed al Rab’i said he could neither confirm nor deny Balaabed’s death. The dead man’s relatives also reportedly denied he had been killed.

A second possible US strike killed alleged militants later named as Abd Rabbo Mokbal Mohammed Jarallah al Zouba and Abbad Mossad Abbad Khobzi by the Yemen defence ministry website. However Yemeni media could not independently verify their connection to al Qaeda.

Three additional airstrikes were reported in May. Two were labelled US drone strikes by a single source. The third, on May 24, was reported either as a US drone strike or as a Saudi Arabian airstrike. The attack hit an area close to the Saudi border in al Jawf province. While most local media sources attributed the strike to the US, several sources said the attack was carried out by Saudi jets. Responsibility remains unclear.

Also in May, a Yemen Air Force fighter-bomber crashed in Sanaa while on a training mission. The Russian-made Su-22 exploded in mid-air over a residential district. The pilot was killed and up to 22 people on the ground were injured. This was the third military plane to crash in the city in seven months. In February another Su-22 crashed in the capital, killing 12 people. And in November an Antonov M26 transport plane caught fire and crashed, killing all 10 on board.

The Air Force was the victim of ‘sabotage’, according to service chief General Rashed al Janad. The latest Su-22 was caused by ‘shots hitting the engine’ as it prepared to land he explained, adding ‘the black box of the aircraft was hit’. The Antonov crashed in 2012 after ‘shots caused a fire in one of its engines’, General al Janad said.

Also this month General al Janad said (Arabic) the US does not notify Sanaa before launching drone strikes. He told al Jazeera he had suffered personally from US attacks when a cousin of his died in a strike in Dhamar province. However an unnamed Yemen Air Force source said the country’s military high command is aware of any incursion by foreign military aircraft into its airspace. Yemeni analyst Saeed Obaid said al Janad appeared to be distancing himself from anger at civilian casualties.

Somalia

May 2013 actions

Total reported US operations: 0

All actions 2007 – May 31 2013

US drone strikes: 3-9

Total reported killed: 7-27

Civilians reported killed: 0-15

Children reported killed: 0

Reported injured: 2-24

All other US covert operations: 7-14

Total reported killed: 47-143

Civilians reported killed: 7-42

Children reported killed: 1-3

Reported injured: 12-20Click here for the Bureau’s full data on Somalia.

There were once again no reported drone strikes in Somalia in May. But the Pentagon admitted an unarmed US helicopter drone crashed in al Shabaab-controlled territory south of Mogadishu. The US said the aircraft was on a surveillance mission but would not say what kind of drone it was, or why it crashed. The local governor Abdikadir Mohamed Nur claimed militants shot the drone down. He said they were firing at it for hours before it crashed. But the US denied this and al Shabaab only said the drone crashed.

Al Shabaab militants tweeted pictures of the wreckage and in one image Schiebel, the name of a Viennese defence firm, is clearly visible on a piece of debris. Schiebel makes only one model of drone, a surveillance helicopter dubbed the S-100 Camcopter. This revelation prompted some speculation the drone was French, after Paris reportedly test-flew the drone as part of a failed attempt by commandos to rescue a captured French spy in January 2013.

Security remains perilous in Somalia. Al Shabaab killed six people in an attack at the Kenyan border on May 25. A 15-year-old boy, two police officers, a teacher and a Red Cross official were among the bodies. Also in May, UN deputy secretary general Jan Eliasson told reporters the African Union peacekeeping force Amisom has suffered up to 3,000 casualties since it began operations in 2007. The UN quickly backtracked on the statement, and Amisom’s spokesman told Pentagon-funded news site Sabahi Online the peacekeepers had lost fewer than 500 troops.

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An armed Reaper sits on the apron at Nellis Air Force Base. (cclark395/Flickr)

Two CIA strikes kill at least eight in Pakistan, including an al Qaeda commander.

US drone strikes return to Yemen after an 85-day pause.

Militants launch one of their most well organised and deadly attacks to date, on a court house in Somalia.

Pakistan

April 2013 actions

Total CIA strikes in April: 2

Total killed in strikes in April: 8-12, of whom 0 were reportedly civilians

All actions 2004 – April 30 2013

Total Obama strikes: 316

Total US strikes since 2004: 368

Total reported killed: 2,541-3,533

Civilians reported killed: 411-884

Children reported killed: 168-197

Total reported injured: 1,173-1,472For the Bureau’s full Pakistan databases click here.

The US launched two strikes on Pakistan, killing at least eight. CIA drones have attacked Pakistan’s tribal areas twice every month since January, when six strikes killed 27 people.

A strike on April 14 was the first of the month and the first to happen under Mir Hazar Khan Khoso, 84, who was declared caretaker prime minister in Pakistan on March 24. He will be in charge until the general election scheduled for May 11.

Campaigning has been dogged by violence. News agency Reuters reported that more than 50 people have been killed in terrorist actions targeting election campaigning. Militants have attacked rallies and Pakistan Taliban (TTP) leader Hakimullah Mehsud urged his followers to target senior politicians and party leaders. His group’s intention is to ‘end the democratic system’, he declared.

The April 14 strike reportedly killed a senior al Qaeda militant (Ob315), Abu Ubaydah Abdullah al Adam. His death was reported by two alleged militants, Al Wathiq Billah and Barod, on April 20. Al Adam was a Palestinian raised in Saudi Arabia.

An anonymous US intelligence official said he was ‘essentially al Qaeda’s intelligence and internal security chief’ and a ‘very dangerous operative’ who was ‘on the target list’. Al Adam had replaced Mohammad Khalil Hasan al Hakaymah (aka Abu Jehad al Misri) who was killed in a drone strike on November 1 2008 (B38). An alleged local Taliban commander, Madni was reported to have been killed in the second strike of the month, on April 17.

There were no credible reports of civilian casualties in Pakistan in April.

Leaked documents obtained by news agency McClatchy show US intelligence officials were aware of at least one civilian had died in CIA strikes in 2011, despite claims to the contrary by the Agency’s new director, John Brennan. In June 2011 Brennan, at the time President Obama‘s chief counter terrorism adviser, stated publicly that for ‘almost a year’ no civilian had died in US drone strikes in Pakistan.

Yemen

April 2013 actions

Confirmed US drone strikes: 1 Further reported/possible US strike events: 1 Total reported killed in US operations: 4-7Civilians reported killed in US strikes: 0

All actions 2002 – April 30 2013*

Confirmed US drone strikes: 44-54

Total reported killed: 232-333Civilians reported killed: 12-47Children reported killed: 2Reported injured: 62-144

Possible extra US drone strikes: 78-96

Total reported killed: 277-445

Civilians reported killed: 27-50

Children reported killed: 9-10

Reported injured: 76-98

All other US covert operations: 12-76Total reported killed: 148-366Civilians reported killed: 60-87Children reported killed: 25Reported injured: 22-111Click here for the full Yemen data.

* All but one of these actions have taken place during Obama’s presidency. Reports of incidents in Yemen often conflate individual strikes. The range in the total strikes and total drone strikes we have recorded reflects this.

Two strikes hit Yemen this month, at least one launched by a US drone. It was the first confirmed US strike in 85 days. This is the longest break between attacks since May 2011, when the US ended a year-long pause.

The confirmed drone strike on April 17 killed as many as five named alleged al Qaeda militants. One of those killed was reportedly Hamid al Rademi, who has been described as a senior al Qaeda commander by officials and other sources including Yemeni journalist Nasser Arrabyee.  

Others, however, have questioned his al Qaeda links. Writer and activist Farea al Muslimi, a native of Wessab, where the strike hit, claimed al Rademi was called ‘an ordinary man’ by security officials and grew powerful in the area thanks to his government connections, not his terrorist connections.

The strike caused some controversy with campaigners, including al Muslimi, questioning the decision to kill rather than capture al Rademi. The noise around the strike echoed the response to one last year on November 7 (YEM122) which killed Adnan al Qathi – an individual with government and military connections, who like al Rademi could easily have been arrested rather than killed.

The strike that killed al Rademi was described in detail at a Senate subcommittee hearing by al Muslimi who was flown into Washington to testify. He spoke powerfully of the human toll of the US’s covert campaign in Yemen. The subcommittee also heard from retired general James Cartwright who said he feared the US had ‘ceded the moral authority’ through its use of drones. Retired US Air Force colonel Martha McSally also testified. She said there was ‘too much vagueness’ from the chain of command about the legal justification for drone strikes.

Somalia

April 2013 actions

Total reported US operations: 0

All actions 2007 – April 30 2013

US drone strikes: 3-9Total reported killed: 7-27Civilians reported killed: 0-15Children reported killed: 0Reported injured: 2-24

All other US covert operations: 7-14Total reported killed: 47-143Civilians reported killed: 7-42Children reported killed: 1-3Reported injured: 12-20Click here for the Bureau’s full data on Somalia.

For the eighth consecutive month, no US strikes were reported on Somalia. This was despite al Shabaab launching one of its most audacious attacks on Mogadishu since US-backed and UN-mandated African Union soldiers forced the militants from the capital in August 2011.

The city has been unstable since the militants were pushed out. Al Shabaab has persistently made it past security to launch terrorist attacks. However the coordinated bombings on April 14 were the most deadly with more than 90 reported dead and wounded.

A suicide squad burst into the court complex in the capital and fought ‘an extended gun battle’ with court guards, witnesses said. Somali investigators told the Toronto Star they believe a Canadian militant named Mahad Ali Dhore organised the assault. A second bombing hit a vehicle carrying Turkish aid officials. Western diplomats said the sophistication of the attacks and explosives used suggest foreign al Qaeda terrorists were involved.

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An armed Reaper waits on the ramp in Afghanistan (US Air Force).

Two strikes hit Pakistan, ending a month-long pause between attacks.

There were no reported US drone strikes in Yemen in March, marking the longest pause between covert attacks in three years.

No strikes were again recorded in Somalia.

Pakistan

March 2013 actions

Total CIA strikes in March: 2

Total killed in strikes in March: 2-7, of whom 0 were reportedly civilians

All actions 2004 – March 31 2013

Total Obama strikes: 314

Total US strikes since 2004: 366

Total reported killed: 2,537-3,581

Civilians reported killed: 411-884

Children reported killed: 168-197

Total reported injured: 1,174-1,465For the Bureau’s full Pakistan databases click here.

Two CIA drone strikes killed at least two people in March. All those reported killed were unidentified and there were no credible reports of civilian casualties.

The first strike of the month hit on March 10 (Ob313), ending a 29 day pause. It hit the day before UN special rapporteur Ben Emmerson arrived in Islamabad on a three-day visit. The second strike (Ob314) hit 11 days after the first, killing 1-4.

There were conflicting reports of both strikes. The March 10 strike killed alleged militants who were either riding a motorbike or a horse. The horse was killed. Other reports claimed a house was destroyed. The March 21 strike was reported by some as destroying a house. Others claimed a vehicle in a bazaar was hit.

The New York Times also cast some doubt on two strikes that occurred in the previous month, claiming that three ‘American officials’ had told the paper ‘they were not ours’. The Long War Journal’s Bill Roggio challenged this claim, later reporting that ‘US intelligence officials involved with the drone programme in Pakistan’ had said that the two strikes in February ‘were indeed US operations’.

Ben Emmerson QC met with government and tribal officials, and victim groups, as a part of his investigation into the legality and casualties of drone strikes. Pakistani officials told the UN investigator that US drones have so far killed a minimum of 2,200 people, including at least 400 civilians.

The civilian government in Islamabad also stated that 40,000 people have been killed in terrorist attacks on Pakistani soil since September 11 2001. However nearly two weeks later Pakistan’s spy agency the ISI told the Supreme Court that 49,000 had died – more than 25,000 of them in the post-2008 military offensives in the tribal regions.

Also in March, John Brennan was confirmed as CIA director. During his confirmation hearing, Brennan told the Senate he believes ‘the CIA should not be doing traditional military activities and operations’. So his appointment could be a prelude to the Agency ultimately surrendering control of drone strikes to the Pentagon. It is not clear if this will lead to greater transparency, as some believe. The US military’s established drone campaign in Afghanistan became less transparent, when it emerged that Isaf had stopped publishing drone strike data and had stripped all drone statistics out of each preceding release of its data.

Yemen

March 2013 actions

Confirmed US drone strikes: 0 Further reported/possible US strike events: 0 Total reported killed in US operations: 0Civilians reported killed in US strikes: 0

All actions 2002 – March 31 2013*

Confirmed US drone strikes: 43-53

Total reported killed: 228-325Civilians reported killed: 12-45Children reported killed: 2Reported injured: 62-144

Possible extra US drone strikes: 77-95

Total reported killed: 277-443

Civilians reported killed: 23-49

Children reported killed: 9-10

Reported injured: 73-94

All other US covert operations: 12-76Total reported killed: 148-366Civilians reported killed: 60-87Children reported killed: 25Reported injured: 22-111Click here for the full Yemen data.

There were no reported US operations in Yemen – confirmed or otherwise. There has not been a reported strike in Yemen for over two months, after nine attacks in January left 22-34 people dead, including up to 10 civilians.

This was the longest halt between strikes recorded by the Bureau since May 24 2010 when US jets mistakenly killed Jaber al-Shabwani, deputy governor of Marib province. He was travelling to meet his brother, a local al Qaeda leader, to attempt a reconciliation. Tribesmen loyal to al Shabwani rose up – enraged by his killing they destroyed a vital oil pipeline. There were no strikes for 12 months after that botched attack.

Yemen’s long awaited National Dialogue Conference started on March 18. The talks are aiming to reach a new draft constitution. This will set the stage for elections in February 2014.

Hundreds of representatives from political parties and civil society are attending. However southern Yemen secessionists and state security forces continue to clash and there remain fears that there will be further fighting.

Also in March, 31 academics, journalists and former US diplomats wrote to Barack Obama. Under the auspices of the Atlantic Council and the Project on Middle East Democracy, they urged US caution as it pursues its own security agenda in Yemen.

‘The chronic and pervasive perception both here and in Yemen [is] that the United States pursues its security interests with little regard to the strategy’s impact on Yemen itself,’ the authors noted. Signatories included Barbara Bodine, Washington’s former ambassador to Yemen.

The open letter described current US policy in Yemen as ‘counterproductive and in need of urgent re-evaluation’. This echoed the sentiment of General James Cartwright, the former vice chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. The retired General said that US covert drone strikes could be undermining long-term efforts to battle extremism.

Cartwright was the not only former national security adviser this month to express concerns over US drone strategy. General Stanley McChrystal told Foreign Affairs magazine: ‘If we were to use our technological capabilities carelessly … then we should not be upset when someone responds with their equivalent, which is a suicide bomb in Central Park.’

* All but one of these actions have taken place during Obama’s presidency. Reports of incidents in Yemen often conflate individual strikes. The range in the total strikes and total drone strikes we have recorded reflects this.

Somalia

March 2013 actions

Total reported US operations: 0

All actions 2007 – March 31 2013

US drone strikes: 3-9Total reported killed: 7-27Civilians reported killed: 0-15Children reported killed: 0Reported injured: 2-24

All other US covert operations: 7-14Total reported killed: 51-143Civilians reported killed: 11-42Children reported killed: 1-3Reported injured: 15-20Click here for the Bureau’s full data on Somalia.

Once again no US strikes were reported in Somalia – the seventh month in a row. However security remains fragile, even in the capital. An al Shabaab bomber penetrated the most secure district of the city, targeting Mogadishu’s security chief and killing 10.

Government forces reportedly retook Hudur, capital of Bakool, from al Shabaab fighters. The militants had occupied the town near the Ethiopian border, northwest of Mogadishu, after Ethiopian troops had vacated the area. Militants reportedly ‘arrested’ 10 people and killed three, including beheading a 75-year-old Imam.

US operations in Africa could be set to expand further, after the establishment of another drone base on the continent last month in Niger. The State Department also added Mali-based militant group Ansar Dine to its list of ‘terrorist organisations’. A US military adviser said this could be the precursor for US intelligence-gathering operations to evolve into direct action.

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