By the end of 2017, almost all the territory so-called Islamic State (ISIS) had once controlled in Iraq and Syria had been captured, but at significant cost. The year in many respects was a watershed for popular conceptions of modern warfare. Sold as the “most precise campaign in history” by US officials, the urban battlefields laid waste by bombs, artillery and improvised explosives told another story.

ISIS took every opportunity to endanger civilians, even as the Coalition increased the intensity of its own actions. The Coalition-backed assault on Mosul also grew bloodier in 2017 as fighting moved into denser pockets of the city, leaving thousands dead. In June, after months of bombing the vicinity, Coalition-support ground forces also began battling inside Raqqa. The ferocity of these simultaneous campaigns yielded the largest civilian casualty total from likely Coalition strikes ever monitored by Airwars.

Non-combatant deaths from Coalition air and artillery strikes rose by more than 200 per cent compared to 2016, rising to between 3,923 and 6,102 civilians estimated killed during the year according to Airwars tallies. By another measure, roughly 65% of all civilian deaths from Coalition actions tracked by our team since 2014 occurred over the last 12 months. This unprecedented death toll coincided with the start of the Trump presidency, and suggested in part that policies aimed at protecting civilians had been scaled back under the new administration. 

The huge ramp up in Coalition actions came in parallel with a relative reduction in Russian operations in Syria. From January 2017, for eight straight months until September, Airwars tracked many more allegations per month against the Coalition than against Moscow’s forces.

Despite international concern over increased civilian deaths, Russia continues to deny any civilian harm from its strikes – while the Coalition has downplayed the devastating impact of its own actions in Iraq and Syria. 

The 2017 Coalition campaign in numbers

From January 1st to December 31st 2017, the Coalition reported 11,573 air and artillery strikes against ISIS – a 49% increase from the 7,779 strikes it reported in 2016. Of these strikes, 3,348 (29%) were in Iraq and 8,225 (71%) were in Syria. While strikes in Iraq fell overall by 28%, actions in Syria increased by 161% compared to 2016, indicating a new focus for the campaign.

The active Coalition allies –  the United States, the UK, France, Belgium and Australia, and possibly Jordan and Saudi Arabia – cumulatively dropped 39,577 bombs and missiles in airstrikes against ISIS in 2017. Weapon releases from the air were up 29% on the previous year. Even so, in December 2017 just 584 munitions were fired – the lowest reported number since August 2014.

A 215% rise in likely civilian fatalities and a 55% increase in injuries

In 2017 the war against ISIS moved into the most densely-populated urban centres controlled by the group, with dire results for civilians. Simultaneous assaults on Raqqa and Mosul meant that 2017 was the deadliest year yet for ordinary Iraqis and Syrians.

Across Iraq and Syria, casualty incidents tied to likely Coalition strikes more than tripled compared to the year before. To date, the Coalition has conceded 93 events in which it confirms having killed or injured civilians during 2017 – up from 58 such confirmed events for 2016. An additional 673 civilian casualty incidents were classified by Airwars researchers as ‘Fair’ for 2017. An event is assessed as fair when it has two or more uncontested credible sources, and where the Coalition has confirmed it carried out strikes in the area.

Overall, between 3,923 and 6,102 non-combatants were likely killed in these 766 events in 2017 – a 215% increase on the 1,243 to 1,904 civilians estimated as likely killed by Coalition strikes in 2016. At least 2,443 additional civilians were reportedly wounded in these 766 events over the course of 2017, a significant increase from the year before.

Russian airstrikes in support of the Assad government continued in 2017 as well, though at a somewhat lower rate. Following a claimed partial withdraw of Russian forces in December 2016, Airwars tracked 983 alleged Russian events in the following year, a 33% decrease from 2016. Between 2,708 and 4,028 civilians were claimed killed across these events, compared with 6,176 to 8,513 alleged killed the previous year. In light of the massive rise in Coalition actions and its own limited resources, Airwars had to suspend its complete assessments of Russia in March 2017, meaning that these yearly figures have yet to be fully vetted. They should therefore not be directly compared to Airwars estimates for civilian deaths from Coalition strikes, which have been more closely vetted.

The slowdown in Russian actions and major ramp-up in Coalition casualty events led to trend that would characterize nearly all of 2017: Coalition-linked civilian casualties far outnumbering those attributed to Russia. Airwars first recorded this in January 2017, and as the year progressed the gulf between Russian and Coalition events only widened. This trend finally ended in September 2017.

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Syria: Coalition likely civilian deaths more than quadruple 

The number of civilian casualty events tied to Coalition strikes reported in Syria outnumbered those in Iraq by nearly three times in 2017, largely due to the escalating campaign to capture Raqqa.

Civilian deaths in Syria tied to incidents rated as “Fair” or “Confirmed” (by the Coalition) rose by 335% to 633 events in 2017. Between 2,786 and 4,374 civilians were likely killed across such events compared to a minimum of 641 to 1,038 likely deaths during 2016.

“In 2016 we had seen very disturbing scenes from Aleppo, showing the destruction that indiscriminate bombing can wreak on an urban centre,” says Kinda Haddad, head of Airwars’ Syria team. “This year Raqqa showed how the International Coalition against ISIS has repeated the Russian and Regime tactics of ‘siege, bomb and evacuate’ in order to achieve the stated aims of defeating the terror group.”

By the start of 2017, Raqqa was within sight of the Coalition’s SDF allies as its ground forces battled to encircle the city. The intensity of bombing reached a new peak in March, when Airwars tracked the highest death toll yet in Syria – a minimum of 314 civilians reported killed. Almost all of these occurred in Raqqa governorate.

Potentially the worst alleged incident recorded by Airwars in Syria occurred on March 20th-21st in Al Mansoura, near Raqqa. Local sources reported that anywhere from 40 to 420 civilians died in an alleged Coalition strike on Al Badiya school, in which hundreds of displaced women and children were seeking shelter. Human Rights Watch investigators who visited the site put the death toll firmly above 40. The Coalition confirmed the strike, but denied any civilians were killed. It has yet to re-open an investigation into the event, despite HRW’s findings.

A video report by Human Rights Watch, investigating the mass casualty event at Badiya school on March 20th-21st.

This early spike in fatalities in Raqqa governorate was deeply troubling, considering that fighting had not yet entered the city and was still concentrated in its less densely populated surrounding villages and towns.

By April, Airwars was beginning to accumulate extensive evidence from the perspective of civilians themselves, that protections on the battlefield appeared to have been scaled back under the new Trump administration. Additionally, the U.S. military shifted to “annihilation tactics“, a change cited by the Trump White House.  

On June 6th the official battle for Raqqa city began; civilian deaths rose that month by 41% compared to May, with a minimum of 418 civilians credibly reported killed. That same first month of fighting saw 4,400 munitions fired on Raqqa – more than four times the number fired in May. Reports emerged of whole families being wiped out. Yet despite mounting evidence, the Coalition continued to cast doubt on the toll its tactics appeared to be having on the most vulnerable people.

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The death toll worsened in August, when at least 453 civilians were likely killed by the US-led Coalition in Raqqa. In a typically grim event, up to 50 civilians died on August 20th in an alleged Coalition strike on civilian homes in Raqqa’s Bedo neighbourhood, an area of the city which was repeatedly pounded throughout the month.

By the time Raqqa was liberated on October 20th, Airwars estimate that more than 1,450 civilians had likely killed been by the Coalition since the start of June. Other monitors said that at least 1,800 civilians died in the fighting. Defeat of so-called Islamic State had come at an extraordinary cost, with the UN reporting that 80% of the city was left uninhabitable – despite the Coalition’s continued insistence that is had been “waging the most precise war in history”.

The final quarter of 2017 saw a sharp fall in reported Coalition actions and civilian deaths in Syria. On November 9th, the Syrian government declared victory over ISIS, though strikes continued in Deir Ezzor governorate, where Airwars is still tracking allegations against the Coalition, Russia and the regime.

This fall-off in Coalition strikes meant that after nearly a year, Coalition civilian deaths no longer outnumbered those tied to Moscow. In December, Airwars tracked 52 Russian events in Syria with 16 variously attributed to the Coalition, all in Deir Ezzor governorate.

The Coalition campaign is not over. In December, reported strikes rose by a third to 184, and likely civilian casualties increased in line, to between 33 and 58 civilians killed in 10 incidents we assess as fair. The worst of these 10 events occurred on December 13th when up to 25 civilians including eight children were allegedly killed in Coalition airstrikes on homes in Jarthi al Sharqi, Deir Ezzor governorate, according to local sources.

Iraq: a minimum 87% rise in likely civilian fatalities

The nine month battle for Mosul that officially began on October 17th 2016 would have a disastrous impact on civilians over the course of 2017. By January 24th East Mosul had been liberated, though more than 1,000 civilian deaths had been alleged in that campaign – of which at least 324 appeared to have resulted from Coalition actions.   

However, much worse was to come after operations to capture West Mosul officially began on February 19th. Caught between ISIS snipers, mortars and vehicle bombs; and Coalition and Iraqi air and artillery strikes, civilians were placed at extraordinary and sustained risk as the battle built fierce momentum over the next five months.

Minimum likely deaths in Iraq evaluated as Fair or Confirmed increased by 87% in 2017 compared to 2016. Across 133 incidents, Airwars estimates that between 1,128 and 1,717 civilians were likely killed by Coalition actions in Iraq during 2017. Between 4,514 and 6,989 additional deaths are included in “contested” incidents, where multiple belligerents – including the Coalition, Iraqi forces and/or ISIS – have been implicated.

Just days into March, hundreds of civilians were already reported killed in Mosul. During the entire month, Airwars tracked a near tripling of likely fatalities, amid reports of mass casualty incidents in which civilian homes and infrastructure was repeatedly hit.

In the greatest confirmed loss of life in any one civilian casualty event of the war, the Coalition itself admitted to killing between 105 and 141 civilians  on March 17th-18th in a US airstrike on Mosul’s Al Jadida/New Mosul neighbourhood. The strike hit a house holding hundreds of displaced civilians near the Al Rahma Al Ahli Hospital. While that one incident sparked international outrage, civilian deaths continued to rise as the battle ground on.

From May, as Iraqi Security Forces pushed into Mosul’s Old City, determining who was responsible for fatalities proved exceptionally challenging. The number of ‘contested’ events in Iraq during 2017 increased more than six-fold on the previous year, to between 4,514 and 6,989 contested deaths monitored by Airwars.

The official liberation of Mosul was finally announced on June 29th as Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared a symbolic end to ISIS’s caliphate, though the fighting would continue for three more weeks. However, there was another spike in deaths prior to the city’s fall, including allegations of war crimes committed by victorious Iraqi forces. The entire Mosul campaign was the biggest urban assault since World War Two, effectively lasting 256 days – three months longer than the epic Battle of Stalingrad.

Airwars’ Iraq researcher went into the field numerous times during the West Mosul campaign. “I noted dozens of injured civilians fleeing the battle without any coordination from Iraqi forces or safe corridors,” he says. “Additionally, there was repeated use of civilians as human shields by ISIS. Towards the end of the battle, it sometimes seemed that the Coalition were attacking everything in order to eradicate ISIS from the city, regardless of the high number of civilian casualties.”

From July 18th, Coalition air and artillery strikes effectively ceased in Mosul, resulting in a 41% decrease in civilian casualty events in the city and a corresponding decline in both likely and contested deaths during July. Yet for thousands of Iraqis it was too late. Airwars’ current estimate is that a minimum of between 1,066 and 1,579 civilians were likely killed by Coalition strikes in Mosul between October 17th 2016 and mid July 2017. Of these fatalities, a minimum of 626 occurred during the West Mosul assault, from February 19th to July 15th.

Additionally, between 4,191 and 6,160 more civilians were killed in contested events at Mosul, according to Airwars tracking. Associated Press recently put the number of civilians killed in the battle at between 9,000 and 11,000 – at least a third of whom it said had died in Coalition and Iraqi air and artillery strikes.

After their defeat in Mosul, ISIS’s remaining territorial control quickly crumbled. August saw a rapid victory in Tal Afar, where pre-battle warnings that 50,000 civilians remained in the city were proved incorrect. That same month, reported casualty incidents fell by a quarter.

From September to November, both likely and contested deaths in Iraq continued to plummet. In November just one likely event tied to Coalition strikes was recorded. On December 9th, the Iraqi government declared victory over ISIS. Airwars tracked no allegations of civilian deaths from Coalition actions during the month  – the first time this had occurred in Iraq since the start of the war.

Key Airwars investigations during 2017

The Airwars inhouse investigations team led by Samuel Oakford began 2017 by looking back at hundreds of civilian deaths in Syria and Iraq reported in the final days of the Obama administration. That spike would only grow during the first year of the Trump presidency.

In February, Airwars revealed that the US had used depleted uranium against targets in Syria during 2015. This marked the first use of the controversial weapon type since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 – in contravention of US claims that it would not do so.  

In March, Airwars recorded the 1,000th alleged Coalition civilian casualty event and began to report a steep casualty escalation coinciding with the Trump administration. Additionally during March, Airwars was first to report US involvement in an attack that claimed dozens of lives at a mosque in Idlib.

In April, we released an in-depth investigation into the unilateral US “shadow war” being waged in Syria against alleged al Qaeda-linked targets, leading to incidents like that in al Jinah.

In May, Airwars released an important exclusive investigation that found Coalition allies had killed at least 80 civilians – as determined by US investigators – but that none would accept responsibility for. Airwars also revealed that as part of an arrangement with the Coalition, the US would no longer identify its own strikes — a development with further troubling implications for transparency. Airwars would later unearth Belgian involvement in two casualty events which the Coalition had determined had harmed civilians, despite public denials by Brussels. 

In June, Airwars reported on conflicting instructions given to civilians in Raqqa, where operations inside the city officially began that month. And in July, with Mosul’s capture complete, Airwars reviewed the massive civilian toll from that offensive.

Also in July, Airwars reported in a joint investigation with the Daily Beast that civilian casualties from the US-led anti-ISIS war had already doubled under President Trump -after just six months.

Following the capture of Mosul, Airwars monitored heavy civilian death tolls in Raqqa. Hundreds of children were reported killed in the first months of fighting there. In a feature jointly published with Foreign Policy, Airwars drew attention to troubling comments made by the Coalition’s then-commander Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, leading to a rare and lengthy public response by the General.

Airwars monitoring of the campaign in Raqqa continued to show major death tolls. In August, 10 times more munitions were fired in the city than for all of Afghanistan. In October after the city’s fall, Airwars published estimates for civilian deaths in Raqqa that far exceeded anything the Coalition has so far admitted to.

Airwars monitoring of Russian allegations also continued through the year, and in the Fall they were blamed for a sharp rise in civilian deaths during fighting in Deir Ezzor.

Ending a strong year, in December Airwars reviewed the staggering reported casualties from anti-ISIS operations in Iraq.

Military advocacy for Iraq and Syria

A dedicated Airwars military advocacy team was formed in September 2017 thanks to targeted funding, and now consists of four specialist members. The team was created to help match the increased capacity of the Coalition’s own civilian casualty monitoring team.

As a result Airwars has been able to increase both the volume and capacity of its geolocation and investigative work. For example, if an allegation mentions a specific neighbourhood, researchers can help the Coalition find the coordinates of the area and run additional satellite image analysis to try to determine the exact location of the strike, or attempt to geolocate photographs and videos that accompany such reports.

At the request of the Coalition, Airwars directly assisted with 50 individual event assessments during 2017. Enhanced geolocations are now also provided to the Coalition where possible.

In total, during 2017 the Coalition itself processed 803 alleged civilian casualty events in Syria and Iraq, assessing 673 of them to be Non-Credible and 130 as Credible. Airwars has frequently queried such assessments against our own database. As part of this information exchange, in 2017 the Coalition also provided precise locations to Airwars for 67 Credible and 258 Non Credible cases. This information proved critical in determining where allegations and confirmed events had occurred.

Airstrikes and civilian casualty claims in Libya

In September 2017, Airwars and New America began a joint Libya project, which is expected to publish its first findings in Spring 2018.

The political instability in Libya created by the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime in 2011 led to civil war three years later. This in turn gave an opening to ISIS and other extremist belligerents; and further fragmented the political landscape of the country. This also led to the involvement of foreign actors such as the US, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

The new project aims to track and assess all airstrikes in Libya – both international and domestic – since the end of the NATO war in 2011. Three team members  are currently gathering and assessing reports – one English-language and two Arabic-language researchers from Libya. 

The Libya project is similar to Airwars work in Iraq and Syria, but is also broader in scope. As the estimated sample size of reported airstrikes in Libya is much smaller, the team will be able to conduct more detailed research and code for information such as munition types, weapons used or the structures or objects targeted. Unlike in Syria and Iraq, Airwars will also be able to track airstrikes from domestic forces such as the competing governments of the GNA and LNA, each of which control air assets.

Since September, our research team has begun building up a comprehensive timeline of locally and internationally reported allegations. When the dataset goes public later this year, we expect it to provide significant insights into the deteriorating security situation in Libya – one in which, according to the UN, airpower remains the greatest threat to civilians. 

‘On Jan. 19, the Pentagon announced that U.S. airstrikes had hit two ISIS encampments in Libya, killing dozens of ISIS militants’

Airwars Iraq, Syria and Libya analysis for 2017: Kinda Haddad, Salim Habib, Abdulwahab Tahhan, Shihab Halep, Koen Kluessien, Christiaan Triebert, Tareq Haddad, Eline Westra, Oliver Imhof, Samir, Osama Mansour, Poppy Bowers, Eeva Sarlin, Samuel Oakford, Sophie Dyer, Beth Heron, Laura Bruun, and Chris Woods.

Following the capture of almost all territory once controlled by so-called Islamic State (ISIS), Coalition actions in both Iraq and Syria fell precipitously during November. Overall, likely deaths caused by the alliance’s bombs and artillery also fell by more 80% to between 57 and 76 — their lowest levels since September 2016. 

With the full liberation of Raqqa in October, minimum likely deaths in Syria fell by 96% to between 12 and 26 civilians. On November 9th, the government of Syria declared victory over ISIS, though Coalition strikes continued in Deir Ezzor governorate, where Aiwars tracked all but one of the 33 monitored claimed events in the country. In Iraq, only one alleged Coalition casualty event was recorded.

Official data for November likewise shows a sharp fall in Coalition actions. Just as civilian deaths rose in lockstep with higher attack rates, so they have fallen as guns go silent. Coalition air and artillery strikes decreased by 68% on October, while the number of munitions dropped – a far more reliable metric of activity than strikes – decreased by 39% to its lowest level since September 2014. 

Meanwhile, there was an 8% increase in the number of events tracked which reportedly involving Russia aircraft in Syria. Between 351 and 478 civilians were claimed killed in 96 attacks tied to Russian forces. About two-thirds of these reports were in Deir Ezzor provionce. Our researchers also monitored a worrying 280% rise in casualty events in Idlib governorate compared to October, including several mass casualty events.  

The dramatic fall in casualty events allegedly involving the Coalition likely signals the end of Coalition civilian casualties outnumbering those of Russia — a trend that lasted for most of this year. By any measure, 2017 has been the worst year for civilians in the fight against ISIS, as battles moved deep into Iraqi and Syrian cities. Despite the Coalition’s insistence that it was waging “the most precise war in history”, Airwars estimates that at least 3,875 non-combatants have been killed by Coalition actions during 2017 to November. The complete toll in cities like Mosul and Raqqa still remains unknown. 

Coalition trends

From 2014 through the end of November 2017, the Coalition had reported 14,102 air and artillery strikes in Iraq, along with 14,357 in Syria. During November, the Coalition declared 85 strikes in Iraq, a decrease of 57% from October. In Syria, 139 strikes were reported, a 72% fall and the lowest number reported since March 2016.

According to official data published by US Air Force Central Command, the Coalition’s officially active members (the US, UK, France, Belgium, Australia and likely Jordan – along with possibly Saudi Arabia and the UAE) released a total of 1,000 munitions during air raids on ISIS targets in Syria across Iraq and Syria. This was a 39% decrease from November, bringing bombs and missiles dropped to the lowest level since September 2014.

Actions by the UK and France, the US’s two main allies, continued to fall during November. The British Ministry of Defense reported just nine strikes in Iraq, an 18% drop on the previous month. In Syria only six strikes were reported by the UK, a fall of 73% from October. France also reported just nine strikes in Iraq and no actions at all in Syria.

Military developments

Following the liberation of Raqqa from ISIS on October 20th, local media reported that on November 5th – after six months as IDPs – civilians began returning to the city’s al Mashlab neighbourhood. A followup report said that every person had to confirm in writing to the SDF that they were returning voluntarily to their own home and would take full responsibility for what occurred.

While civilians may finally be out of harm’s way of ISIS attacks and air and artillery strikes, reports emerged of a major legacy problem of unexploded ordnance in Raqqah – from ISIS booby traps and mines, to unexploded Coalition munitions.

ISIS’s territory continued to shrink elsewhere, and it was all but eradicated as a territorial entity in both Iraq and Syria. On November 4th, the Coalition announced that Iraqi forces had seized the key border area of al Qaim in Iraq.

The simultaenous assaults on Al Qaim and the town of Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria meant that only Abu Kamal, on the Syria side of the border, remained as the final major town under full ISIS control.

On November 9th, the government of Syria declared victory over ISIS, though Coalition air and artillery strikes continued in Deir Ezzor governorate throughout the remainder of November.

However, as the end of ISIS’s caliphate neared, reports indicated that the terrorist group had switched tactics and reverted to insurgency mode, possibly explaining the sudden collapse of the group in areas in which the Coalition had expected to fight harder for a final defeat.

Coalition civilian casualties

With the war against ISIS now in its final stage, Airwars monitored an 81% fall in deaths likely caused by the US-led Coalition during November. This brought likely fatalities to their lowest reported level since October 2016.

Airwars researchers tracked a total of 34 claimed civilian casualty events across Iraq and Syria – a 62% fall on the 90 events tracked during October. All but one of these 34 events occurred in Syria.

Of these 34 events, Airwars currently assess just five as having likely resulted from Coalition actions (four in Syria and one in Iraq) –  an 87% decrease on the 39 ‘fair’ events’ tracked in October.  A ‘fair’ categorization means that an event has two or more uncontested sources, and that the Coalition has confirmed carrying out strikes on the same day in the vicinity.

Across the five events, Airwars currently assess that between 57 and 76 civilians were likely killed by Coalition strikes, compared to a minimum of 304 in October.

The raw, unvetted number of alleged deaths from all Airwars monitoring of Coalition actions during October in Iraq and Syria – across all incidents assessed as ‘fair’, ‘poor’ ‘contested’ and ‘discounted’ – currently stands at between 183 and 256 claimed civilian fatalities.

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Syria: likely deaths fall by 96%

Deaths assessed as likely caused by the Coalition in Syria fell dramatically after Raqqa fell to Syrian Democratic Forces on October 20th: their lowest levels in over a year. During November, Airwars tracked 33 alleged Coalition civilian casualty events across Syria – a 60% fall on October. But of these 33 events, just four were assessed as likely carried out by the US-led Coalition, compared to 38 likely events in October.

Across those four casualty events, Airwars currently estimates that between 12 and 26 civilians died – a massive decrease from the minimum of 284 casualties tracked by Airwars researchers during October. The assessed toll in November is the the lowest in Syria in any one month since August 2016.

The overall, unvetted toll for Syria across all categories  – ‘fair’, ‘weak’, ‘contested’ and ‘discounted’ – was between 138 and 206 civilians killed.

Local monitors have shown similar trends. Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently monitored 312 deaths reportedly caused by the Coalition in October and in November they reported none.

With ISIS now defeated in Raqqah, Airwars tracked no civilian deaths in the governorate during November. Airwars currently estimates that at least 1,450 civilians died in Raqqah as a result of Coalition actions from the beginning of June until the end of October. The Coalition, however, has so far conceded only only 15 civilian deaths within Raqqah from the start of the assault.

Those civilians still in the devastated city remained at risk. According to Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently, 87 non-combatants were killed in explosions of landmines planted by ISIS before their defeat. On November 30th, Medecins San Frontieres reported that residents returning to Raqqah in the aftermath of the fighting were finding not only their homes destroyed, but the surrounding streets and fields littered with explosives.

Allegations shifted to Deir Ezzor governorate, where all but one of the reported Coalition casualty events tracked by Airwars occured. Many more events, however, were contested, with most allegations shared between the regime, Iraqi forces, Russia and the Coalition.

“What has been interesting to see is that many monitors are not even trying to identify the planes that carry out the raids,” says Kinda Haddad, head of the Airwars Syria team. “The reports refer to them simply as ‘warplanes’. For example, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights documented the deaths of 230 Syrian civilians in Deir Ezzor between November 8th and December 1st in shelling ‘by the regime, the Iraqi Mobilization forces, Russia and the international Coalition’.” In cases like this, Airwars cannot make a clear assessment. Airwars currently assesses that between 125 and 178 civilians died across 27 events graded as contested throughout November.

Footage of a strike on the town of Hajeen, Deir Ezzor, Nov 2nd. Like many reports during the month, the source referred only to “warplanes”. 

Nevertheless, there were still three significant events which could likely be attributed to the US-led Coalition.

On November 4th, six civilians including one woman reportedly died in an alleged Coalition airstrike on Al Basira in Deir Ezzor, according to local media. Al Hasaka Arabea News reported the death of Mohammad Manadi al Sha’ara known as Baj’eeb, saying that he died “in front on of the Grand Mosque in Al-Basira”. Additional victims were named as Ahmed Mahmoud Hassan al-Abd known as Tahmir Abu Jakouk, Abdul Qadir Talib Daoud Al-Hassan Al-Ali, Mustafa Nuri Ahmed al Douda, Abdulmutallab Dawood Al Hussein (an engineer) and Ms. Reham Ismail Hamadi Al-Obeid. The Syrian Network for Human Rights, Almanar and Radio Alkul all blamed the Coalition.

The two bloodiest events over the month both occured on November 11th. The first was tracked in Al Duaij Tel-Shayer, in Hasaka governorate, where local media reported that up to 15 civilians died in an alleged Coalition airstrike. According to Al Khabour, the Coalition struck a civilian car killing one non-combatant and wounding several others. More detail was given by the Syria Press Center, which claimed that Al-Duaij was “subjected to air raids from Coalition aircraft” resulting in the death of 15 people from the family of Al-Sinjar and Al-Azzou. Hasaka Rasd named victims as the “children of Majid al-Sinjar and children of Fadel Al-Azzou“. The Step News Agency also put the death toll at 15.

A further five civilians including paramedics were killed, and many more reportedly wounded in an alleged Coalition airstrike the same day on an ambulance in Rajim al Salibi. Local media cited sources who said that the victims died as they attempted to help those wounded in the earlier casualty event in Al Duaij. Zaman al Wasl was among sources blaming the Coalition reporting that “the car, which helped [the wounded] to cross the Al Salibi crossing was targeted again by a drone plane and so far no one has been able to reach to the bodies”.

The victims were reportedly struck as paramedics attempted to transport them from Al Duaji to receive medical attention in Rajim Al-Salibi. Baladi, also attributing the event to the Coalition, added that “three paramedics and two drivers” died in the incident. Victims were named by Al Khabour as  Fadel Al-Ezzo, Bader Fadhal Al-Ezzo, Abdul Majid Alsnagar, Abdul Ghafur and Abdul Majid Al-Sinjar (Omar Aldolf).

Iraq: just one event tracked during the month

During November, Airwars tracked just one civilian casualty event in Iraq linked to reported Coalition actions. It occurred in Al Qaim in Anbar province on November 1st, and Airwars presently asssesses the event as likely having resulted from a Coalition action.

According to Omar Al Halbusi, Coalition strikes killed 45 civilians and wounded dozens more. The alleged air and artillery bombing was also reported by Yaqein, which referred to the “indiscriminate shelling of residential areas” in the centre of Al Qaim. The source put the death toll at between 45 and 50 non-combatants, but didn’t identify the party responsible. Another source, The Association of Muslim Scholars in Iraq, also claimed that 45 civilians died with dozens more wounded.

On the same day, the Coalition reported that iut had conducted actions in the vicinity, noting that ” Near Al Qaim, one strike engaged an ISIS tactical unit, destroying two ISIS vehicles and an encampment.”

Russian military actions and civilian casualties

Airwars researchers tracked 96 casualty events reportedly involving Russian aircraft in Syria during November – an 8% increase from the 89 events tracked during October.

Across those events, between 351 and 478 civilians were reported killed in alleged Russian actions. These numbers are raw and based only on initial monitoring. They are at present unvetted, and therefore should not be directly compared to the Coalition estimates published in this report.

As in October, the majority (65%) of allegations against Russia occurred in Deir Ezzor governorate (now also the site of most Coalition allegations). However, November also saw a significant uptick in claimed Russian events reported in Idlib governorate. Airwars researchers tracked 19 such events there – a 280% increase over what was monitored in October.

“While most of the incidents in October were carried out primarily in Deir Ezzor, we have noticed a rise in the number of airstrikes in Northern Syria in November, especially in Idlib,” says Abdulwahab Tahhan, an Airwars researcher who monitors reported Russian strikes in Syria. “On November 13th, an alleged Russia airstrike in a residential area and a local market in Atareb, Idlib killed between 67 and 82 civilians, according to sources on the ground. The scenes from the incidents were very graphic and horrific to watch, and it was reported that up to 340 civilians were also injured. Many men, women and children were buried under the rubble.”

On November 26th, there was another major casualty event in al Sha’afa, Deir Ezzor. Local sources reported that up to 65 civilians including 21 children and nine women died when several civilian homes and the Al-Fandi Commercial Complex were struck. Almost all sources blamed Russia, though the Russian Ministry of Defence later explicitly denied responsibility. One source – Zamanalwasl – alleged that the Coalition (and bizarrely Egypt) were to blame. Airwars has so far published the names of 42 victims.

The sharp fall in reported Coalition casualty events in both Iraq and Syria appears to mark the end of a trend that characterized much of 2017 — with US-led strikes reportedly killing more civilians than Moscow’s own campaign in support of the Assad government.

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Airwars Iraq and Syria analysis: Kinda Haddad, Salim Habib, Abdulwahab Tahhan, Shihab Halep, Koen Kluessien, Christiaan Triebert, Oliver Imhof, Poppy Bowers, Eeva Sarlin, Samuel Oakford, Sophie Dyer, Laura Bruun, and Chris Woods.

August was the third deadliest month for civilians in Syria and Iraq since the start of US-led Coalition actions against so-called Islamic State three years ago, according to Airwars tracking. Following a fall in likely fatalities in July, the month of August saw a sharp 35% increase in deaths assessed as likely caused by the international alliance

Airwars tracked 128 civilian casualty events in Iraq and Syria in August, by our estimate likely killing between 470 and 719 civilians. The majority of these events occurred in Syria, where SDF advances into the city of Raqqa came at significant cost to civilians.

The sharp increase in likely civilian fatalities coincided with a record number of munitions released. The Coalition fired ten times more munitions on Raqqa alone last month than were released by US aircraft across all of Afghanistan. The impact of this ferocious bombardment on civilians trapped in the city was reportedly devastating. Likely deaths more than doubled on July’s minimum estimates, to their highest levels yet – with between 433 and 643 civilians likely killed in Raqqa alone, according to our present assessment.

Civilians in Iraq finally experienced some respite, with a 25% fall in reported casualty incidents – and a substantial decrease in the number of deaths assessed as likely. After just eight days of fighting, the northern city of Tal Afar was captured by Iraqi forces in August, demonstrating ISIS’s diminished power since the fall of Mosul. Pre-battle warnings by the Iraqi government that up to 50,000 civilians were still trapped in the city proved incorrect. The assault on Tal Afar therefore proved less complicated than the battle for Mosul, where a  large number of non-combatants had remained.

Meanwhile, August saw the lowest number of Syrian events attributed to the Russians in any given month since the start of their bombing campaign in 2015. Just 36 incidents were linked to Russia in August, 45% down on those monitored during July. That falling number highlighted the growing disparity between alleged Coalition and Russian actions. August 2017 was the eighth straight month that Russia’s campaign in Syria had been overshadowed by casualty events reportedly carried out by the US-led alliance.

Coalition military developments

As of August 31st 2017 some 13,568 air and artillery strikes had reportedly been carried out in Iraq – and 12,426 in Syria – since the start of the Coalition campaign against so-called Islamic State more than three years earlier. In Iraq 292 strikes were declared, an increase of 30% from July. Strikes in Syria saw a 51% increase on the previous month with a total of 1,463 strikes reported. This marked a new all-time high.

August also saw the highest number of munitions released in any one month since 2014. According to official data published by US Air Force Central Command, the Coalition’s declared active members (the US, UK, France, Belgium, Australia and Jordan – along with possibly Saudi Arabia and the UAE) released a total of 5,075 munitions during air raids on ISIS targets in August. This was an 18% increase on July’s figure.

Separate munitions figures provided to Airwars by the Coalition are even higher than those published by AFCENT, because they also include HIMARS rockets, helicopter attacks, and US Army and Marine Corps drone and artillery strikes. The Coalition reports that it fired approximately 8,187 munitions between Iraq and Syria during August – some 1,843 in Iraq and 6,344 in Syria. At Tal Afar, during a short campaign to oust ISIS, 1,238 munitions were reportedly released.

Raqqa bore the brunt of this dramatic hike in munitions released. The Coalition reported that a record 5,775 bombs and missiles were fired in support of operations to capture the city – a 92% increase on July.  This figure is 5% higher than the peak munitions fired on West Mosul back in March, to date the deadliest month for civilian harm tracked by Airwars across the entire war. Those 5,775 munitions fired at Raqqa were also more than ten times the declared number of munitions released by US aircraft in all of Afhganistan during August – which was itself at a five-year high.

Moreover, those record Coalition munitions were fired into a small geographic area. Raqqa covers approximately 40 square kilometers – less than half the size of West Mosul. It was reported that some 2,000 ISIS fighters still remained in Raqqa city by August 6th, who were using as many as 20,0000 civilians as involuntary human shields. As reported in detail below, this had a devastating impact on non-combatants.

Actions carried out by the UK in Iraq continued to fall. The MoD reported just eight strikes in August, a decrease of 65% on the previous month. France reported 14 Iraq strikes, up from 11 in July.  Australia for the first time reported the greatest number of non-US actions in Iraq, with approximately 31 strikes throughout the month – most of them at Tal Afar.

Although there was also a decrease of 21% in UK actions in Syria, 31 strikes were nevertheless reported – most concentrated at Raqqa. French actions in Syria remained steady with 16 reported strikes, just one more than in July.

Major gains in Raqqa – and rapid victory in Tal Afar

At the start of August the SDF – supported by intense Coalition strikes – seized control of large parts of the Hisham Ben Abel Malik neighbourhood in Raqqa and tightened its siege on the ISIS-held centre of the city.

The humanitarian situation remained dire, with thousands of civilians still trapped in ISIS-held territory without access to food, water or vital medical supplies. In response, ISIS reportedly opened the way for 3,000 civilians to leave some areas where clashes had worsened. Yet reports also continued of ISIS firing on civilians as they attempted to flee the city.

By August 8th, the SDF had largely driven ISIS from southern Raqqa, though violent confrontations continued. More gains followed and by August 29th, ISIS was said to control just 10% of the Old City, which they nevertheless held on to with fierce resistance.

Meanwhile in Iraq, the battle for Tal Afar was officially announced on August 20th. Iraqi Forces made rapid gains and by August 24th had encircled ISIS fighters in the heart of the city.

Just one day later on August 25th, Iraqi forces said they had broken through ISIS lines and now had control of the old city centre. By August 27th Iraqi forces declared that they had completely recaptured the city.  The  entire campaign lasted just eight days.

Coalition civilian casualties

During August likely civilian deaths from alleged Coalition strikes in Iraq and Syria increased by 35% on July’s minimum estimates. With non-combatants increasingly at risk in Syria, August was the third deadliest month for civilians since the start of Coalition actions in 2014.

One August trend was particularly concerning: more civilians were credibly reported killed in fewer casualty incidents, with our researchers tracking a number of larger scale events assessed as likely carried out by the US-led Coalition.

Across both Iraq and Syria, Airwars tracked 128 reported civilian casualty incidents – a 34% decrease on July. Of these 128 events, we currently assess 74 as fairly reported. This categorization means that an incident has two or more uncontested sources, and that the Coalition has confirmed carrying out strikes on the same date in the near vicinity. Airwars’ current assessment is that between 470 and 719 civilians were killed in these incidents – compared to a minimum of 349 likely deaths in July.

The raw overall alleged toll from Coalition actions during August in Iraq and Syria – across all incidents assessed as ‘fair’, ‘poor’ or ‘contested’ – currently stands at between 1,092 and 1,988 claimed civilian fatalities.

Raqqa: likely civilian deaths more than double

As the Coalition-backed onslaught on ISIS’s de-facto capital of Raqqa intensified, in August Airwars tracked a 57% rise in deaths assessed as likely caused by the Coalition in Syria. Consequently, likely civilian deaths during the month reached record levels. Yet even as evidence from multiple sources mounts of a high civilian toll  –  as previously reported by Airwars – the Coalition continued to cast doubt on the effects its actions were having on ordinary Syrians on the ground.

Although overall casualty events fell by 35% on July to 113 incidents, 88% of all those tracked in August were in Syria. Out of the 113 events, Airwars currently assesses 72 as likely carried out by the US-led Coalition. Between 464 and 713 civilians are estimated to have died across these 72 Syrian events – compared to a minimum of 296 likely killed during July across 85 events.

Most of the reported incidents were in Raqqa city – 90 per cent – where likely civilian deaths more than doubled on July. Current assessments show that between 433 and 643 non-combatants died in Raqqa city alone during August, compared to a minimum estimate of 213 deaths in July.

In contrast with West Mosul where most civilian casualty allegations were contested, a high proportion of Raqqa actions have been attributed to the Coalition with some confidence. Only the Coalition conducts air and artillery strikes on the city, in support of lightly armed and armoured SDF forces.

Despite a public outcry at the mounting death toll in Raqqa – including concern expressed by the United Nations – alleged Coalition actions have continued to have a significant impact on families trapped in Raqqa. During the course of the month,  a minimum of 74 children were likely killed – a rise of 30% on July. Additionally, at least 62 women likely died – more than double the reported deaths in July.

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Official strike data from the Coalition confirmed a dramatic rise in the bombardment of Raqqa. A total of 1,291 air and artillery strikes were publicly reported during August – up 85% on July. Some 2,432 targets were reportedly bombed, a 67% hike on the previous month.

Given this significant increase in military attacks, it was little surprise that our researchers also monitored a major rise in reported casualty events – with all publicly available evidence pointing towards the Coaltion being responsible.

“Our monitoring has shown that in the three year campaign against ISIS, August has been the worst month for Syria so far in terms of civilian casualties,” says Kinda Haddad, head of the Airwars Syria team. “While the number of individual casualty events decreased, the 57% rise in likely civilian deaths on July clearly indicates that each individual incident was causing significantly more harm, meaning we saw an alarming rise in the number of mass casualty events allegedly carried out by the Coalition.”

The first of these large scale casualty events occurred on August 1st when between 10 and 50 civilians including three families reportedly died with dozens more wounded in an alleged Coalition airstrike. The raid took place on the Al Bousraya area of Raqqa according to multiple local sources. Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently reported that the Coalition struck a building holding 50 civilians. Among those killed were Hamada Al-Saeed Al-Hamzawi and three members of his family, along with Ibrahim al-Kaba (Abu Muhannad) and his wife. The activist Ahmad Al Shibili later added that the bodies of four members of the al A’jali family were recovered from the rubble.

Raqqa’s Bedo neighbourhood also came under repeated and increasingly ferocious fire. On August 20th, between 23 and 50 civilians died in what Step News referred to as “one of the largest massacres since the start of the battle”. Multiple local sources blamed Coalition strikes for hitting a residential building near the Na’im roundabout. Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently named 30-year-old Met’eb Al-Hammoud and 26-year-old Ziad Fawaz Hindawi as victims. Most sources predicted the death toll could rise given the number of people still reported trapped under the destroyed buildings.

There was no respite for the residents of Bedo. On August 21st more civilians in the neighbourhood reportedly perished in alleged Coalition airstrikes. According to the Syrian Press Centre, a residential building was again hit and completely destroyed. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the victims included 19 children and 12 women. Local sources named three girls from the Abdul-Sultan family among the dead.

#الرقة ارتقاء كلا من:1- ريتاج أحمد العبد السلطان2-اسلام أحمد العبد السلطان3-هديل أحمد العبد السلطان.نتيجة قصف التحالف على حارة البدو. pic.twitter.com/6qZaW6XEML

— محمد عثمان (@Mohamadothman1o) August 23, 2017

Children (Retaj Ahmed Abdul-Sultan, Islam Ahmed Abdul-Sultan and Hadeel Ahmed Abdul-Sultan), killed in an alleged Coalition raid on Bedo, Raqqa, Aug 21st.

Elsewhere in Raqqa, the devastation continued. On August 22nd,  a further 40 to 50 civilians were claimed to have died and 100 more wounded when alleged Coalition air and artillery strikes hit the Malahi district. A four-storey apartment block was reportedly destroyed. Local sources called the event a “horrific massacre”.

Iraq: a sharp fall in civilian deaths

Following the complete capture of Mosul by government forces a month earlier, August saw reported civilian deaths from Coalition actions in Iraq continue to fall. Overall, we tracked 15 claimed casualty events, a 25% decrease on the previous month.

Only two of these 15 events are currently assessed as likely carried out by the US-led Coaltion. Just six civilians reportedly died across these incidents.

The month also saw a 61% fall in the minimum number of civilians reported killed in contested events. Between 272 and 714 non-combatants were said to have died in 13 such incidents. Across all categories  – ‘fair’, ‘weak’ and ‘contested’ – between 278 and 720 civilians were claimed killed by the Coalition in Iraq during August – compared to an estimated range of 850 to 865 deaths in July.

“We had only had the battle for Tal Afar in August,” says Airwars’ Iraq researcher. “Many press reports, as well as a statement from the Iraqi vice president Nuri Al Maliki, referred to an agreement between ISIS fighters and Iraqi forces to withdraw from the city. Consequently, this reduced the number of Coalition airstrikes, resulting in just four known alleged civilian casualty events in Tal Afar.”

Moreover, pre-battle warnings that up to 50,000 civilians were still trapped in the city appeared inaccurate, and the Tal Afar battle was relatively uncomplicated, unlike Mosul where large numbers of civilians remained throughout hostilities.

Even so, between August 19th and 22nd as many as 300 civilians were reported killed and injured in the shelling of Tal Afar. Local medical sources provided information on the lives lost, reporting that mostly women and children were the victims. However, it was unclear who was reponsible, with JBS and other sources referring only to “air and missile strikes” and an “aerial bombardment”.

In one August 21st example, 30 civilians died in shelling on Tal Afar according to local media. Just one source – Omara Al Halbusi – blamed the US-led Coalition, accusing it of “destroying houses” with “civilians inside”. Other sources referred only to “artillery”, “shelling” and an “aerial bombardment”.

The final event Airwars tracked in Tal Afar during the month was on August 27th, when dozens of civilians were reportedly killed in airstrikes. Again it was unclear who was responsible. A graphic tweet by @AEJKHaill blamed both the Coalition and the Iraqi army, while activists Omar Al Habusi and Abdulaziz Afganu made an “urgent” call to “international human rights organisation” to expose what they described as a “heinous crime”, claiming that victims were displaced people and that Iraqi government forces had broken the laws of war.

After an increase in civilian casualty events in July allegedly involving Russia in Syria, claims against Moscow’s air assets were once again down. Throughout August, Airwars tracked 36 alleged Russian incidents – a fall of 45% on July. This was the lowest number of monthly allegations attributed to Russia since the start of its campaign in Syria in autumn 2015.

Raw figures indicated that across those 36 events, between 97 and 164 civilians were reported killed in alleged Russian actions. However it should be noted that these numbers are unvetted, and should therefore not be directly compared to the Coalition estimates in this report.

The majority of allegations against Russia (42%) occurred in Deir Ezzor province, followed by Hama (39%). Just five alleged incidents were reported in Raqqa province – a fall of two thirds on July.

For the eighth consecutive month, alleged civilian casualty incidents attributed to the Coalition in Iraq and Syria outweighed those attributed to Russia in Syria. Continuing this year’s trend, in August there were three and a half times as many Coalition as Russian events tracked by the Airwars team.

“Most incidents were reported around Deir Ezzor and Hama where IS is in control,” says Abdulwahab Tahhan, an Airwars researcher who monitors Russian actions. “Among the events, were reports of several strikes on civilian cars and camps for internally displaced persons. Additionally and more worryingly, there were some allegations of the use of phosphorous bombs in Hama.

“The biggest incident also took place in Hama, where 70 displaced civilians were reportedly killed in a Russian airstrike in Akeirbat on 22nd of August while they were trying to flee the area.”

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Airwars team: Kinda Haddad, Salim Habib, Abdulwahab Tahhan, Shihab Halep, Eline Westra, Christiaan Triebert, Oliver Imhof, Poppy Bowers, Beth Heron, Eeva Sarlin, Samuel Oakford, Fiona Gough and Chris Woods

Our small team of researchers is tracking a sustained rise in civilian casualties. Please support our work today

According to Airwars estimates, May was the second deadliest month for civilians in Iraq and Syria since Coalition airstrikes began in August 2014. The month saw record numbers of strikes and of munitions released, leaving those civilians caught between ISIL and the Coalition in even worse straits. 

Casualty incidents due to Coalition strikes remained high in May, with 160 tracked events across both countries. As the campaign to seize Mosul entered a climactic phase, fatalities again reached alarming levels. And in the final weeks leading up to the official June 6th start of the offensive to take Raqqa, likely fatalities in and around that city rose by 19% from April – and by 30% for Syria as a whole.

Overall, a minimum of between 348 and 521 civilians likely died across Iraq and Syria in Coalition actions according to our provisional assessment – a 23% increase on April’s minimum estimates. A study of strike data shows that in Raqqa, more civilians are dying even when fewer targets are hit. This once again suggests a possible change to Coalition procedures which is placing civilians at greater risk of harm. 

Meanwhile after two months of ramped-up strikes, Russia scaled back its own actions in Syria. Reported civilian casualties were down by 61%. This meant that over two and a half times more casualty events were attributed the Coalition in Iraq and Syria than to Moscow’s actions in Syria. While a reduction in Russian strikes offered some much-needed respite to  non-combatants on the ground, it also placed in stark relief the unprecedented scale of the Coalition death toll measured against earlier stages of the campaign.

Coalition military developments

As of May 31st 2017, 12,820 airstrikes had reportedly been carried out in Iraq and 9,093 in Syria since the start of the Coalition campaign against so-called Islamic State. During May, 267 strikes were declared in Iraq – about 9% less than for April. The story increasingly centred on Syria, where there was an 11% increase in reported Coalition actions to 611 strikes in May – the highest number in any given month since Coalition actions began in August 2014.

May saw a record number of munitions fired in Iraq and Syria by the Coalition. According to official data published by US Air Force Central Command, its declared active members (the US, UK, France, Belgium, Australia – along with possibly Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE) released a total of 4,374 munitions on ISIL targets in May. This was a 34% increase over the previous month.

Munitions figures provided to Airwars by CENTCOM are higher than those provided above by AFCENT, because they also include HIMARS rockets, helicopter attacks and artillery rounds. According to CENTCOM, the Coalition fired approximately 5,500 munitions between Iraq and Syria during May, with a split of 3,700 in Iraq and 1,800 in Syria. Of these, approximately 3,400 were in support of operations to liberate Mosul – exactly the same figure as in April – and approximately 1,000 were in support of operations to isolate Raqqa – a sharp drop of 47% on April. Yet as we report below, this decrease did nothing to reduce the number of likely civilian deaths tracked in the city.

April saw the UK – the most active ally in the Coalition after the US – playing  an even greater role in Mosul and in the escalating Raqqa campaign. The British Ministry of Defense reported carrying out 37 strikes in Iraq – a 37% increase on April. Meanwhile, actions in Syria almost tripled to 14 strikes. Despite more than 1,300 airstrikes in total – now focused heavily on urban areas with trapped civilian populations – the UK improbably still claims to have harmed no civilians in any attack.

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There was also a sharp rise in French actions. In Iraq, with 29 strikes declared during May, and almost double the 15 reported in April. In Syria, French raids increased by 50% to 9 declared strikes. The greatest leap occurred in French artillery strikes by its Task Force Wagram at Mosul, which rose to 262 total strikes – 38% more than April.

On May 8th, Australia made a welcome move towards greater transparency when it published its first fortnightly report, detailing both strikes and their locations. From May 1st to May 31st, Australia said it had dropped a record 119 munitions on Iraq over the course of the month – approximately 24 strikes, of which 21 were in  the vicinity of Mosul.

Push to Mosul’s Old City and Raqqa’s gates

At the start of May, a new front was opened up in the Mosul offensive as Iraqi forces advanced from the north west of the city. On May 7th, the Mushairfah district was captured, though ISIL continued to put up fierce resistance.

By May 14th, Iraqi forces had won significant ground, and military officials estimated that ISIL controlled no more than 9% of West Mosul. Subsequent gains included the Rifai district on May 17th and the July 17 neighbourhood on May 20th. The Al-Najjar district was captured on May 22nd.

The humanitarian situation however remained dire, with 400,000 residents still believed to be trapped in the Old City centre. On May 26th, the Iraqi Air Force dropped leaflets urging civilians to evacuate the Old City – a difficult proposition at best amid heavy airstrikes and ISIL’s deliberate targeting of fleeing civilians. By May 29th, the capture operation was said to be in its last stages, with 95% of Mosul seized according to Iraq Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

Meanwhile in Syria, by May 3rd the Syrian Democratic Forces had recaptured almost all of Tabaqa, a strategic city west of Raqqa. On May 11th, the Coalition announced the liberation of the Tabaqa Dam, all of the city and the airfield following a negotiated surrender with an ISIL faction.

The fourth phase of the Raqqa campaign was announced on May 10th. Steady advances were then made throughout the month, with the capture of villages and hamlets, culminating in the seizing of six villages on May 30th. However, by the time the Kurdish-dominated force reached the gates of Raqqa city, the Coalition estimated that at least 2,500 ISIL fighters remained inside – along with as many as 100,000 trapped civilians.

Coalition civilian casualties

May was the second worst month for likely Coalition civilian deaths since the beginning of the campaign in August 2014. From already high levels, 23% more non-combatants were likely killed in Iraq and Syria compared to April. As the US-backed campaigns to liberate West Mosul and Raqqa escalated, civilians were repeatedly put at extraordinary risk, whether in their homes, or as they attempted to flee those wartorn cities and towns now under constant aerial and ground bombardment.

Across both Iraq and Syria, Airwars researchers tracked 160 casualty events – a marginal increase of 1% compared to April. Of these, 76 incidents are presently assessed as fairly reported, meaning our researchers monitored two or more credible uncontested sources, and with the casualties occurring in an area where the Coalition has confirmed airstrikes that day. Airwars currently assesses that between 348 and 521 civilians died in these events, compared to a minimum of 283 deaths in April.

The overall number of civilian deaths alleged from Coalition actions for May in Iraq and Syria – across all ‘fair’, ‘poor’ and ‘contested’ events – currently stands at between 1,337 and 2,152.

For the fifth consecutive month, civilian casualty incidents tied to the Coalition in Iraq and Syria outnumbered those allegedly perpetrated by Russia in Syria. Following an escalation in April, May saw Moscow dramatically scale back its strikes. This further emphasized the scale of May’s Coalition death toll, which was more than two and a half times higher than those casualties allegedly linked to Russian actions.

Raqqa: civilians at greatest risk yet

Likely civilian fatalities from Coalition airstrikes in Syria rose by 30% in May, amid rising concern from international agencies and human rights groups at the rising toll. Throughout the month, Airwars researchers tracked 118 claimed Coalition casualty events in Syria alone – 74% of all reported casualty events in both Iraq and Syria. Of these events, 70 were in our view fairly reported, leaving an estimated death toll of between 283 and 378 civilians. This was a significant rise from an estimated minimum of 218 people killed in May.

The overall death toll for May in Syria – across ‘fair’, ‘poor’ and ‘contested’ events – currently stands at between 500 and 728 non-combatants allegedly killed by the US-led Coalition.

Of the 70 likely events in Syria, 86% occurred in and around Raqqa – where probable civilian deaths increased by 19% from April (256 to 341 killed). However unlike in Mosul, the plight of Raqqa’s civilians caught between ISIL and deadly Coalition and SDF actions continued to receive little attention from the international press.

An analysis of the number of targets bombed in and around Raqqa in recent months raises particular concerns. In March, the number of targets bombed in Raqqa province actually decreased by 39% from February. Given this, it might have been expected that civilian deaths would fall. Yet instead they rose more than fivefold to their highest levels yet – with between 275 and 743 civilians likely killed just around Raqqa.

In April, Airwars monitored a 47% drop in targets bombed. But while the number of likely civilian deaths also fell, this was only by 24%.

Official data for May for Raqqa is more complex. On the one hand, 289 airstrikes were reported – more than double the number carried out in April. The number of targets bombed – a far more accurate metric than strikes – tripled to 591. As already noted, likely civilian deaths around Raqqa were up by around one fifth.

It therefore appears that since February there has often been little correlation between the number of strikes or targets bombed, and civilian deaths in Raqqa. This may indicate that the unprecedented increase in fatalities from Coalition actions is related to an undisclosed change in the rules of engagement or offensive procedures on the battlefield.

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Kinda Haddad, head of the Airwars Syria team, has watched the situation unfold with increasing concern.

“Civilian deaths have risen consistently and dramatically since the end of December 2016,” says Haddad. “The coalition was the single largest contributor to non-combatant fatalities in Syria during May, killing more civilians than either ISIL, the regime or the Russians according to local and regional monitors.”

“In May the coalition continued its push into Raqqa province with often little apparent regard for civilians – whose situation is getting ever more dangerous,” she added. “Non-combatants are now firmly stuck between Daesh mines or snipers which are killing civilians attempting to leave – and the Coalition, which is hitting them both in their homes and when they try to leave.”

Civilian casualties were not confined to Raqqa and its environs. Following the surrender of ISIL in Tabaqa on May 11th, Airwars recorded a 48% drop in casualty events in the town during May. Nevertheless a minimum of 64 civilians were still reported killed in the vicinity – just three deaths less than in April – across 11 events.

In the two days of May 6th-8th alone, four incidents were tracked in Tabaqa. The worst of these occurred on May 7th when at least 20 civilians including eight children and four women were killed in an alleged Coalition raid on the Al Awwal and Al Thaleth neighbourhoods, according to local sources. The journalist Mohab Naser told Airwars that a Coalition jet struck a four-storey building, resulting in the death of many residents. He named six members of the Jubran family (ranging in ages from one to 78 years) and three children from the Al-Issa family.

Four days later, on May 11th, another eight children and four women reportedly from the same family died, and dozens more were wounded, in an alleged Coalition raid on the Al Hashem area, north of Raqqa city, according to local media. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll as high as 15, while Al Raqqa Truth – also pointing to the US-led Coalition – named Othman al Ahmad al Hamoud, Zakiya al Othman, Mozer Othman al Hamoud, Amira Othman al Hamoud and Marya Hadi and her sons as victims.

As May wore on, there was no respite for Raqqa’s civilians. On May 14th, up to 22 female non-combatants  died when an alleged Coalition airstrike at Al A’Keirshi village hit three cars traveling to their place of work. Some reports indicated the women were employed in agriculture. The Smart News Network – citing Reuters – put the death toll even higher, at 30, of which it said 22 were female. Among the victims were three members of the al Mustapha family along with Nawwaf Mohammed Al Turki al Sawa’an, reportedly killed when his motorbike was hit. While reports of the number of victims varied, sources were agreed they were cut down in the midst of ordinary activities.

By May 24th, Airwars was tracking seven claimed events per day in Syria. In one of the worst incidents monitored by our researchers, six children and seven women were reportedly killed in an alleged Coalition raid between May 23rd and 24th in Al Barouda village in western Raqqa, according to local media. Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently put the death toll as high as 16 – including nine members from the al-Nayef al-Haj family – most of them displaced from Al Sukhna.

Displaced civilians, desperately seeking refuge from fighting elsewhere, often bore the brunt of the violence. On May 27th – in yet another incident in which vehicles were allegedly struck by Coalition warplanes – at least 17 displaced non-combatants reportedly died when buses they were riding in on the road between al Kasrat and Ratla village were hit. Baladi News put the death toll as high as 20, while Masaida added that women and children were among the dead. Many more people were said to have been wounded. It was yet another grim story from a month which saw ordinary Syrians suffering in extraordinary numbers – whether they were sheltering in their own homes, or attempting to live their lives amid the ongoing chaos of the battlefield.

https://twitter.com/ShbibG/status/868881926026924033

ShbibG was one of a number of sources blaming the Coalition for the death of 20 civilians in a strike on a convoy of vehicles on the road between al Kasrat and Ratla village on May 27th.

Mosul: civilians remain in grave danger

Iraqi civilians remained at extreme risk as the campaign to seize West Mosul from ISIL moved into its final phase. Of the 40 alleged Coalition civilian casualty events tracked in Iraq during May, 93% of them were reported in Mosul.

Deaths remained high. Overall across all categories – ‘fair’, ‘weak’ and ‘contested’ – between 740 and 1,241 civilians were claimed killed by the Coalition in the city throughout May – compared to between 743 and 917 in April. Determining who was responsible for these fatalities continued to prove extremely challenging. Only 37 civilians are currently assessed as being likely killed by the Coalition in May, across five casualty events deemed fairly reported.

In most other cases, reports might either reference only general bombardments, or instead variously blame Iraqi and Coalition air and ground forces, or ISIL. Across 27 contested events in Iraq for May, between 565 and 1,054 non-combatants died – an average of at least 21 civilians killed per incident.

“Iraqi forces have changed their plans several times,” explains Airwars’ Iraq researcher. “After they failed to control Old Mosul they moved to the north west of the city in the first week of May, and liberated all the neighborhoods around the the city like Rifai and 17 July and Shifa. ISIL then forced civilians to move to the Old City to use them as human shields, thereby forcing Iraqi forces to slow down their operation.

“Many civilians were killed by Daesh when they were trying to flee to Iraqi forces – we’re talking about hundreds in Zanjili and Old Mosul. Iraqi forces and the Coalition have failed to secure safety corridors for them.”

Russian military actions and civilian casualties

In April we saw a 36% leap in casualty incidents allegedly involving Russia in Syria, with 155 events tracked throughout the month. In May, however, this number fell by 61% to 61 casualty events. This brought the number of allegations down to levels last seen between December 2016 and February 2017.

As previously reported, due to an unprecedented increase in allegations against the Coalition in Iraq and Syria, Airwars has had to pause full vetting of Russian strikes in Syria. It will therefore be some time before researchers can undertake a deep assessment of the May 2017 data. However, the raw figures show that across these 61 incidents between 205 and 317 non-combatants were reported killed in alleged Russian actions. Given that these numbers are unvetted and unfiltered, these should not be directly compared to the Coalition estimates contained in this report.

“The number of Russian airstrikes in May may have been reduced due to the application of deescalation zones, though these airstrikes did not stop completely and still killed a significant number of civilians,” says Airwars researcher Abdulwahab Tahhan, who has been tracking reported Russian actions in Syria on a daily basis.  “While Russia used to focus its airstrikes against places packed with civilians, in Idlib and Aleppo for example, it now seems to have changed focus to less populated ISIL-controlled areas in Homs or Hama. Even so, many civilians in these areas still reportedly died.”

It remains unclear whether Russia’s reduced actions in Syria will continue, with May again highlighting how unpredictable Moscow’s own campaign can be. For now however, ordinary Syrians in certain areas have at least some respite.