According to Airwars estimates, May was the second deadliest month for civilians in Iraq and Syria since Coalition airstrikes began in August 2014. The month saw record numbers of strikes and of munitions released, leaving those civilians caught between ISIL and the Coalition\u00a0in even worse straits.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Casualty incidents due to Coalition strikes remained high in May, with\u00a0160 tracked events across both countries. As the campaign to seize Mosul entered a climactic phase, fatalities again reached alarming levels. And in the final weeks leading up to the official June 6th start of the offensive to take Raqqa, likely fatalities in and around that city rose by 19% from April – and by 30% for Syria as a whole. <\/em><\/p>\n

Overall, a minimum of between 348 and 521 civilians likely died across Iraq<\/em> and Syria in Coalition actions according to our provisional assessment<\/em> – a 23% increase on April’s minimum estimates. A study of strike data\u00a0shows\u00a0that in Raqqa, more civilians are dying even when fewer targets are hit. This once again suggests a possible change to Coalition procedures which is placing civilians at greater risk of harm.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Meanwhile after two months of ramped-up strikes, Russia scaled back its own actions in Syria. Reported civilian casualties were down by 61%. This meant that over two and a half times more casualty events were attributed the Coalition in Iraq and Syria than to Moscow’s actions in Syria. While a reduction in Russian strikes offered some much-needed respite to\u00a0 non-combatants on the ground, it also placed in stark relief\u00a0the unprecedented scale of the Coalition death toll measured against earlier stages of the campaign.<\/em><\/p>\n

Coalition military developments<\/h1>\n

As of May 31st 2017, 12,820 airstrikes had reportedly been carried out in Iraq and\u00a09,093 in Syria since the start of the Coalition campaign against so-called Islamic State. During May, 267 strikes were declared in Iraq – about 9% less than for April. The story increasingly centred on Syria, where there was an 11% increase in reported Coalition actions to 611 strikes in May – the highest number in any given month since Coalition actions began in August 2014.<\/strong><\/p>\n

May saw a record number of munitions fired in Iraq and Syria by the Coalition. According to official data\u00a0published by US Air Force Central Command, its declared active members (the US, UK, France, Belgium, Australia – along with possibly Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE)\u00a0released a total of\u00a04,374 munitions<\/span><\/a>\u00a0on ISIL targets in\u00a0May.\u00a0This was a 34%\u00a0increase\u00a0<\/strong>over the previous month.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Munitions figures\u00a0provided to Airwars by CENTCOM are higher than those provided above by AFCENT, because they also include HIMARS rockets, helicopter attacks\u00a0and artillery rounds. According to CENTCOM, the Coalition fired\u00a0approximately 5,500 munitions between Iraq and Syria during May, with a split of 3,700 in Iraq and 1,800 in Syria. Of these, approximately 3,400 were in support of operations to liberate Mosul – exactly the same figure as in April – and approximately 1,000 were in support of operations to isolate Raqqa – a sharp drop of 47% on April. Yet as we report below, this decrease did nothing to reduce the number of likely civilian deaths tracked in the city.<\/p>\n

April saw the UK – the most active ally in the Coalition after the US – playing\u00a0 an even greater role<\/a><\/span> in Mosul and in the escalating Raqqa campaign. The British Ministry of Defense reported carrying out 37 strikes in Iraq – a 37% increase on April. Meanwhile, actions in Syria almost tripled to 14 strikes. Despite more than 1,300 airstrikes in total – now focused heavily on urban areas with trapped civilian populations – the UK improbably still claims to have harmed no civilians in any attack.
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