Airwars assessment
In perhaps the most well-known, and hotly debated, incident from the war in Gaza, civilians were killed while sheltering at the Al Ahli hospital on October 17th 2023.
The incident was widely-reported, with a fierce dispute as to whether the civilian casualties were caused by a Palestinian militant rocket fired at Israel that fell short or an Israeli air or artillery strike. The Israeli army claimed to have evidence that the explosion was caused by a misfiring Palestinian rocket, but Palestinian officials disputed this.
Airwars’ research focussed primarily on identifying the victims of the strike and our researchers did not conduct an in-depth analysis of the evidence of what caused the harm. Multiple investigations focussed on the likely perpetrator, including Human Rights Watch, CNN and The New York Times. Most concluded that the strike was likely the result of a rocket fired by a Palestinian militant group, though there remains no definitive conclusion as no munition fragments were recovered. As the event remains debated, Airwars has marked this incident as ‘contested’ in line with our methodology.
Using open source testimony, Airwars identified at least 63 known civilians killed in the attack, including as many as 27 children. Among those identified, Airwars researchers found the names of 30 individuals, found familial names or references to another 16 civilians, and found reference to, but no names of, another 25 individuals killed. This includes one child referenced widely as the ‘unknown martyr’ in local testimonies, as well as 24 members of the Toteh family referenced through relatives’ accounts.
In this event as in many others Airwars has documented, the named casualties are likely to present just a proportion of those harmed in an incident. This is especially the case in areas like Gaza where civilians are under constant bombardment, and detailed information on casualties is challenged in often chaotic and contested information environments.
Airwars considers all incidents ‘open’, which means we will update this case as further information comes to light. We encourage anyone with additional information relating to any case to contact us. See our methodology page for details on how to reach us with information on errors or corrections.
Our breakdown of the family units below detail how we came to these casualty figures, which we calculated in line with our standard methodology.
The death toll for the incident remains contested, with the Ministry of Health initially releasing a death toll of 500 individuals killed, which was then revised to 471 the following day. US intelligence analysts estimated that 100-300 individuals were killed in an unclassified report released to AFP, according to The Guardian. Airwars has put the total upper fatality range at 471 to reflect the highest casualty death toll reported for the incident, in line with our standard methodology. Casualty ranges per family and demographic have otherwise been referenced below.
Airwars was also able to find the identity of at least six people who were injured, two women and at least four children. Images shared by local sources also showed eight wounded children being treated for their injuries. The health spokesman Dr. Ashraf Al-Qudra, initially put the injury toll at 600, while Palestinian officials, later quoted by The Guardian, reported that 314 were injured. Other social media sources said either “hundreds” or “dozens” were wounded in the attack. Airwars’ injury toll reflects the minimum and maximum ranges based on the consensus among sources.
Named Victims
Family units identified
TheTotah Family
Based on testimonies posted online, Airwars identified seven members of the Totah family by partial demographic detail who were killed in the attack, for example, individuals who were identified as a surviving relative’s brother. Another three individuals were identified by name who were injured. Other testimonies put the death toll as much higher, with the highest estimated toll from the Toteh family Airwars identified as ‘more than 30’ fatalities, as reported by a surviving relative on Facebook. To avoid duplication, Airwars has estimated a minimum casualty range of 24 civilians killed and an upper casualty range of 31 civilians killed within the Toteh family – in case those we have been able to identify are also included in the higher death tolls posted by other family members.
A post from Hanan Faysal described how the story of a two-year-old girl named Siwar Totah (Toutah) was circulating online. She was reportedly being treated at Al-Ahli hospital for severe wounds after her home in the Zaytoun neighborhood was bombed, and then was again injured in the attack on Al-Ahli. Following the attack, “the child “Siwar” was transferred to Al-Shifa Hospital to receive treatment, and her health condition is stable so far, but a number of her family members were martyred”. A post from the El Zaytoun neighborhood family Facebook page reported that a member of the Totah family, opposite the Salah al-Din Mosque, was killed. A member of the Totah family, Mohammed Totah, stated that “more than 30 were martyrs from my cousins, sons of the Hamdan Totah, and their sons”. Aljazeera spoke with someone who is likely a member of the Totah family whose “cousins and their sons, and his mother-in-law and her daughters” were among the 31 members of his family killed, and he is seen holding up a book and school bag from a girl in his family, saying “Why did the bombing target this child? Was she hiding explosives and weapons in her bag?”.
The Guardian spoke with Rushdiyya Toutah, a 43-year-old wheelchair user from Gaza City who was sheltering at al-Ahli with other displaced people and lost every adult member of her family. Nearly 40 members of her family headed to the hospital because of airstrikes near their home and “We felt safe,” Toutah said. “There were thousands of people and kids.” Her brothers set up tents for everyone in the yard, and they settled in as they listened to Israeli warplanes fly overhead.” When the explosion occurred, “All I remember is that the kids said that they were hungry, so their mothers started making sandwiches for them after asking them to go to play in the yard. I saw them laughing and playing while their mothers were happy, preparing the food. Then I found myself covered in others’ blood in al-Shifa hospital, where the rescuer and the paramedics took me.” Rushdiyya Toutah’s parents, her two brothers, their wives, and her disabled sister were all killed. Rushdiyya Toutah also sustained significant injuries: “I felt pain in all my body parts, and I could barely even see, as my eyes were hurting.” A nephew named Yamen, who was injured, also survived.
Esbeita Family
Ahmed Abed posted a condolence message to his cousin, “the sister of the martyrs Fares and Munir Mansour Esbeita,” who was killed in the attack, adding that her children were injured.
Jarada Family
A woman named Safaa Harb, her husband Muhammad Jarada and their children were killed according to Mohammed Ibrahim Harb, describing himself as Safaa’s brother. It is unclear how many children were killed or their names. A Facebook account of Dana Barakat also said that the Jarada family was entirely killed, alongside the video of a man with a child stating that he was the only surviving member of the Jarada family.
Ajour Family
A Facebook post from “Palestine Woman” identified their aunt (Hama’s sister) Maha Ajour (43) and her children as among those killed. Mohammad Hani identified Maha’s two sons as Muhammad Ajour (21) and Mahmoud Ajour (19), and referred to Maha as “Umm Mutasim”. Their ages were identified by Airwars researchers among the Ministry of Health list of casualties published on October 26th.
Abu Al-Aoun Family
Mahmoud Abd Al Wahan Mahmoud posted a condolence message for his brother Hassan’s children Adam Hassan Abdel Wahab Abu Al-Aoun (14) and Muhammad Hassan Abdel Wahab Abu Al-Aoun (13). Their ages were identified by Airwars researchers among the Ministry of Health list of casualties published on October 26th.
Qariqa Family
From the Qariqa family, Sohaib Mohammed posted that their aunt Anam Salman Qariqa, their cousin Maryam Ahmed Qariqa (30), their sister Duha Bassam Qariqa, their sister Saji Bassam Qariqa (23), their cousin Mohamed Sami Qariqa (24), and the beloved child Mohamed Ghassan Qariqa (9) were killed and their beloved mother Umm Jabr was injured and “is in dire need of prayers”. Their ages were identified by Airwars researchers among the Ministry of Health list of casualties published on October 26th.
@Layann1948 identified Muhammad Sami Qariqa as a civilian killed at the hospital while he was volunteering to raise the spirits of children and injured: “The martyr Muhammad Sami could not bear to sit and watch videos of children and the wounded. He went to the hospital to play with the children, raise their morale, and treat them psychologically.”
Aslim Family
A post from Osama Aslim spoke for the family of Islim Shahd in mourning Mansoura Ali Aslim, Muhammad Ali Aslim “Abu Adel”, and “eight members of his family (including his sons, daughters, and grandchildren)”.
Members of the Khalaf family named Abo Mamdouh Khalaf and Tariq Khalaf posted condolence messages for Nabil Khalaf’s wife, who was pregnant, and described her as the daughter of Mohammad Aslim, and added that her three children Lara Khalaf, Joan Khalaf, and Jumana Khalaf were also killed. To account for risks of duplication with the unnamed family members referenced in the post from Osama Aslim, Airwars has kept a minimum casualty range of eight for this family, though does account for these additional three casualties in our upper family range.
Muhammed Al Manasra added that Abu Adel was one of the doves of Al-Islah Mosque and “Every Ramadan … he used to offer sweets as a sign of honor for the soul of his dear son” Hamed who reportedly died in the 2014 Israel-Gaza war.
Abu Massi Family
BBC News spoke with a father named Arafat Abu Massi whose two sons, Mazen (17) and Ahmed (13) were killed in the explosion at al-Ahli. Arafat described his sons as “very close to each other” but had very different personalities. He told BBC that his wife had undergone IVF therapy for eight years to have children. Mazen was described as “the brightest of all my children” and Ahmed was described as “the strongest and bravest in the family” and that “he used to sell toys and school supplies in a small booth near our house”. Their only surviving brother, three-year-old Farah “keeps crying and asking where his siblings are. [Arafat] told him that God has chosen them to stay in heaven. That is a better place for my two young smart gentlemen.”
Airwars identified the ages of the children by finding their names among the Ministry of Health list of names released on October 26th.
Other named victims identified
Aïcha Ahlem Abdelwahed identified their friend Hasnat Murtaja, a volunteer in the rescue and first aid crew, as one of the victims killed in the explosion. Aïcha wrote that “Hasnat has been my friend since 2012 and we studied together at Olivet… an English for non-native speakers training center in Brighton, Britain.”
Abo Obaida offered their condolences to the Anqar family for the loss of their son Mahmoud Nasr Al Anqar (33) “Whose soul rose to heaven last night in the Baptist Hospital massacre”.
Mohand Saber Al-adailh offered condolences for their friend Ahmed Hamdan, a volunteer at the hospital, who was killed.
Tala Yassen identified Khalil Maher Yassin as a victim killed at the hospital. Airwars researchers found his name amongst the Ministry of Health list, indicating that he was 16 years old.
Raneen Al Roz identified their cousin Muhammad Mahmoud Al-Raz as among those killed, writing “what a heartache, may God have mercy on you, Muhammad”, posting a picture of the young boy. Airwars researchers found his name among the Ministry of Health list, indicating he was 15 years old.
Abo Mustafa Al Sawalhi posted that their cousin Muhammad Adel Muhammad Mustafa Al-Sawalhi (23) was killed. His age was also identified by Airwars researchers among the Ministry of Health list.
A post from Nour Al Din Amin announced that “it is with great sadness that we received the news of the martyrdom of my uncle Jamal Khalaf“. Jamal was not mentioned by other posts in reference to the Aslim family mentioned above, despite relatives of the Aslim family sharing the same name. He has therefore not been counted in the Aslim toll detailed above.
A post from Anas Abo Thouraya identified their aunt Nisreen Abuthria as among those killed.
Mouayed Wehdi posted a memorial for their cousin Shadi Al-Wahidi (32) who was killed. His age was also identified by Airwars researchers among the Ministry of Health list.
@GazaMartyrs posted a message from Maram Shaqeela on her five month old daughter Yumna’s death, “I carried her with fear and concern. In the ninth month, they told me there was a lack of amniotic fluid, and there was a possibility she might not survive. I rushed to the hospital, screaming that I wanted to save her, and I gave birth by cesarean section to ensure she survived. After two weeks, her father named her. He woke me up from sleep, and she was sucking her fingers, hungry. I forgot my pain, embraced her, and started breastfeeding her. I love her so much…The day she left me was a nightmare. I was dressing her in white, spraying her with perfume, breastfeeding her, and giving her biscuits with milk. I didn’t know I was preparing her for death. This is Yumna, the light of my eyes and the joy of my heart. I slept beside her when she was martyred.”
A Twitter/X post from @al3rab963sy identified a child named “Kamal“, identified as the brother of Firas and Ahmed, as among those killed. The post included a video of a young child in a wheelchair with an injury to his arm, making it possible he was being treated at the hospital before the attack.
Unnamed victims
One social media source posted a picture of a dead young child alleging that he was killed in the hospital bombing, but had not been identified and was known as “unknown martyr “5309””.
Another source posted a graphic picture of a dead infant covered in black and claimed that he/she was among “the martyrs.” An image posted by Abo Mohammed Al Maghribi shows the bodies of at least seven children. Many videos were posted, including by @waleedsharkawy1 and @mohammadalqaesi, of people saying goodbye to their loved ones and burying their family members killed in the attack.
Images posted by @aboyahyaalshami and @Zuheir_shammasi show at least three different injured children covered in blood and debris. Additional images posted by Al Rai News include at least five other injured children.
Airwars researchers gathered an approximate death toll of unidentified bodies pictured in various sources from the immediate aftermath of the incident, however as a conservative approach these bodies have been incorporated into our minimum death toll based on those identified in social media posts outlined above to avoid for duplication.
The area surrounding the hospital was reported by many local sources as being an area where civilians were congregating, given the intensity of the on-going Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip. The Washington Post noted that first responder groups said that ‘hundreds’ had been sheltering there.
Dr. Ashraf Al-Qudra, health spokesman in Gaza, said that “many” were still missing under the rubble.
Attribution
Immediately following the blast, the Israeli military released statements through their Arabic language spokesman that “The IDF confirmed that the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization was responsible for a failed rocket launch that hit the #Baptist_Hospital in the Gaza Strip” and that “After analyzing the operational systems in the IDF, the enemy in Gaza fired a heavy missile salvo towards Israel, which passed in the vicinity of the Baptist Hospital the moment it was hit.”
The next day, October 18th, the Arabic spokesman @AvichayAdraee added that “We can confirm that the area did not witness any Israeli air, land or sea raid that hit the hospital.” @AvichayAdraee also alleged that the IDF had a recording of “a phone call between a former Hamas activist and a resident of the Gaza Strip, during which they talked about a failed rocket launch that took place specifically at #Baptist_Hospital. We have corroborated this testimony with additional intelligence sources to confirm its authenticity.”
This version of events was challenged by a series of investigations. The New York Times pointed out that the footage highlighted by the Israeli military as evidence of the missile falling short was actually not the strike that hit the hospital. Forensic Architecture also pointed out a number of apparent gaps in the Israeli version of events.
A Human Rights Watch report on the other hand found that the explosion “resulted from an apparent rocket-propelled munition, such as those commonly used by Palestinian armed groups, that hit the hospital grounds.” The organisation also called for a full investigation, saying definitive answers would be impossible without one.
Much of the debate revolved around the supposed lack of physical evidence of munition remnants from the site. Hamas officials argued that there had been no remnants of the munition. “The missile has dissolved like salt in the water. It’s vaporised. Nothing is left,” Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas official, told The New York Times.
Marc Garlasco, a former UN official who has investigated civilian harm incidents across the globe for decades, told CNN that this version of events was not credible.
“When I investigate a site of a potential war crime the first thing I do is locate and identify parts of the weapon. The weapon tells you who did it and how. I’ve never seen such a lack of physical evidence for a weapon at a site. Ever. There’s always a piece of a bomb after the fact. In 20 years of investigating war crimes this is the first time I haven’t seen any weapon remnants. And I’ve worked three wars in Gaza.”
The BBC highlighted images of Palestinian police combing through the blast site.
As per its methodology, Airwars has classified the incident as contested. This will be updated should more information come to light.
Due to the scale and urgency of Airwars’ assessment process, all images have been automatically uploaded to each assessment with the graphic filter applied to protect users. We have also included all images identified from the sources, which may also include any imagery of combatants.
The incident occured at 19:00:00 local time.
The victims were named as:
Family members (4)
Family members (3)
Family members (2)
Family members (7)
Family members (3)
Family members (10)
Family members (2)
Family members (9)
The victims were named as:
Summary
Sources (113) [ collapse]
Media
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