Civilian Casualties

Civilian Casualties

Incident Code

RUK035

Incident date

March 6, 2022

Location

вул. Циліноградська, St. Tsilinogradska, Kharkiv, Ukraine

Airwars assessment

Two civilians were killed and two others were injured by alleged Russian airstrikes on Tsilinogradska street in Kharkiv on May 6, 2022.

The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office posted on Telegram that the Shevchenkiv District Prosecutor’s Office of Kharkiv had launched a pre-trial investigation into a Russian airstrike on a residential building on Tsilinogradska street in Kharkiv which resulted in the death of two people and the injury of two others.

No other details were available about the victims. However, images and videos show extensive damage to a residential buildings.

The local time of the incident is unknown.

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Airstrike
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    2
  • Civilians reported injured
    2
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (5) [ collapse]

Media
from sources (8) [ collapse]

  • Damage caused by alleged Russian airstrikes on Tsilinogradska Street in Kharkiv on March 7, 2022. (Image posted by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutors Office via Telegram)
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian airstrikes on Tsilinogradska Street in Kharkiv on March 7, 2022. (Image posted by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutors Office via Telegram)
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian airstrikes on Tsilinogradska Street in Kharkiv on March 7, 2022. (Image posted by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutors Office via Telegram)
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian airstrikes on Tsilinogradska Street in Kharkiv on March 7, 2022. (Image posted by @andkomx via Twitter)
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian airstrikes on Tsilinogradska Street in Kharkiv on March 7, 2022. (Image posted by @andkomx via Twitter)
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian airstrikes on Tsilinogradska Street in Kharkiv on March 7, 2022. (Image posted by @andkomx via Twitter)
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian airstrikes on Tsilinogradska Street in Kharkiv on March 7, 2022. (Image posted by @andkomx via Twitter)

Russian Military Assessment:

  • Suspected belligerent
    Russian Military
  • Russian Military position on incident
    Not yet assessed

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Airstrike
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    2
  • Civilians reported injured
    2
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (5) [ collapse]

Incident Code

RUK179

Incident date

May 6, 2022

Location

Василенкове, Vasylenkove, Kharkiv, Ukraine

Geolocation

49.77798, 37.03764 Note: The accuracy of this location is to Village level. Continue to map

Airwars assessment

On May 6, 2022, five civilians, including a woman and a child, were reportedly killed by an alleged Russian-planted exploding mine when attempting to evacuate to Kharkiv by car from Kupyansk.

According to a post shared by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office’s Telegram channel, Ukrainian authorities first became aware of this incident when approached by a member of the public. The post gives further information regarding the identities of the civilians affected and the circumstances that led to their reported deaths, stating “pre-trial investigation established that people tried to evacuate from Kupyansk to Kharkiv. According to preliminary data, the car with passengers hit a mine. A 50-year-old woman, a 17-year-old boy and three men aged 19, 20 and 41 were in the car – all of them died.”

According to the Prosecutor’s Office, on October 3 the information given was confirmed when officials visited the site of the reported incident. On this, the post states, “prosecutors together with explosives experts, forensic experts and police investigators conducted an inspection of the scene, during which a burnt-out car and the bodies of the dead were discovered.” Five photographs of this scene were provided on the Prosecutor’s Office’s Telegram Channel, which show burned money, a damaged tire, and other debris in a field near what appears to be a small crater. The Office has stated that a pre-trial investigation has been launched in relation to these events for the alleged “violation of the laws and customs of war, combined with intentional murder.”

This event has been covered by numerous Ukrainian outlets, including DonPatriot News, which differed from the Prosecutor’s Office on the age of one of the alleged victims, reporting, “It is known that these 5 people are residents of Kupyansk, who tried to evacuate to Kharkiv on their own by car on May 6, but encountered a racist mine on the way. Among them are a 41-year-old, a 18-year-old, a 19-year-old, a 20-year-old, and a 50-year-old.”

MediaPort and Suspilne Media, GX, and Obozrevatel all reported on this event, attributing responsibility for the placement of the mine to Russian forces.

This assessment has reference to ACLED code UKR75457 and UKR76971.

The local time of the incident is unknown.

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Ground operation
  • Civilian infrastructure
    Humanitarian evacuation
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    5
  • (1 child1 woman3 men)
  • Cause of injury / death
    Planted explosives and unexploded ordnance (UXO)
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (7) [ collapse]

Media
from sources (6) [ collapse]

  • Screenshot of Facebook post by Serhii Bolviniv
  • Remnants of a vehicle blown up by an alleged Russian mine in Kharkiv on May 6, 2022. (Image posted by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office)
  • Remnants of a vehicle blown up by an alleged Russian mine in Kharkiv on May 6, 2022. (Image posted by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office)
  • Remnants of a vehicle blown up by an alleged Russian mine in Kharkiv on May 6, 2022. (Image posted by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office)
  • Remnants of a vehicle blown up by an alleged Russian mine in Kharkiv on May 6, 2022. (Image posted by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office)
  • Remnants of a vehicle blown up by an alleged Russian mine in Kharkiv on May 6, 2022. (Image posted by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office)

Geolocation notes

Reports of the incident mention the village of Vasylenkove (Василенкове), for which the generic coordinates are: 49.77798, 37.03764. Due to limited satellite imagery and information available to Airwars, we were unable to verify the location further.

Russian Military Assessment:

  • Suspected belligerent
    Russian Military
  • Russian Military position on incident
    Not yet assessed

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Ground operation
  • Civilian infrastructure
    Humanitarian evacuation
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    5
  • (1 child1 woman3 men)
  • Cause of injury / death
    Planted explosives and unexploded ordnance (UXO)
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (7) [ collapse]

Incident Code

RUK178

Incident date

May 5, 2022

Location

«Фельдман Екопарк» смт. Лісне Харківський район, territory of "Feldman Ecopark" Lisne Kharkiv district, Kharkiv, Ukraine

Geolocation

50.102521, 36.281168 Note: The accuracy of this location is to Nearby landmark level. Continue to map

Airwars assessment

On May 5, 2022, Feldman Ecopark, a site located to the north of the city of Kharkiv, was reportedly hit with Russian shelling. According to officials, local media, and the park’s owner, this resulted in the death of a fifteen-year-old boy and up to three civilians sustaining injuries, two of them serious.

According to the owner of Feldman Ecopark, Alexander Feldman, the strike occurred whilst volunteers were on-site contributing to attempts to remove the park’s animals to safety. Writing on the day of the incident, Feldman provided details in a Facebook post, stating, “During the evacuation of buffaloes from Feldman Ecopark, the team of our employees and volunteers got under fire. One person died. Two people were seriously injured. Doctors are fighting for their lives. The deceased boy was only 15 years old. He helped his parents to feed and evacuate the animals. The blessed memory of the hero will always remain in our hearts. This is the sixth victim from among members of our team.” This incident was subsequently reported by local outlets, including Odessa News and Suspilne Media.

In the afternoon of May 5, the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office announced on Telegram that a pre-trial investigation had been launched concerning the “violation of the laws and customs of war, combined with intentional murder.” The post confirmed that a fifteen-year-old volunteer had been killed and a further three volunteers had been injured.

This assessment has reference to ACLED code UKR57219.

The local time of the incident is unknown.

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    1
  • (1 child)
  • Civilians reported injured
    2–3
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (8) [ collapse]

Media
from sources (3) [ collapse]

  • Screenshot of Facebook post by Pochta.feldman
  • Today, during the evacuation of buffaloes from the Feldman Ecopark, a team of employees and volunteers came under fire. One person died. Two people were seriously injured. They are fighting for their lives

Geolocation notes

Reports of the incident mention the Feldman Ecopark (Фельдман Екопарк), for which the generic coordinates are: 50.102521, 36.281168. Due to limited satellite imagery and information available to Airwars, we were unable to verify the location further.

Russian Military Assessment:

  • Suspected belligerent
    Russian Military
  • Russian Military position on incident
    Not yet assessed

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    1
  • (1 child)
  • Civilians reported injured
    2–3
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (8) [ collapse]

Incident Code

RUK177

Incident date

May 5, 2022

Location

Надеждівському Старостинському окрузі, Nadezhdi Starostyn district, Kharkiv, Ukraine

Geolocation

49.141518, 36.548724 Note: The accuracy of this location is to Subdistrict level. Continue to map

Airwars assessment

On May 5, 2022, a village within the Nadezhdi Starostyn District was reportedly hit with Russian rocket fire. According to local media and the mayor of the nearby city of Loziv, one civilian, identified as an elderly woman, was killed during this event.

Posting on Facebook on May 6, the Mayor of Loziv, Sergiy Selenskyy, shared details concerning the reported incident, stating, “a village in Nadezhdivskiy Starostyn District came under rocket fire. A private house was damaged. Unfortunately, an elderly woman born in 1935 died. Deep condolences to relatives and friends!” Selenskyy shared three photographs within this post, all of which show what appears to be a heavily damaged single-story home.

These events, and Selenskyy’s comments, were subsequently reported by Ukranian outlets Suspilne Media and Unian.

This assessment has reference to UKR57220.

The local time of the incident is unknown.

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    1
  • (1 woman)
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (5) [ collapse]

Media
from sources (5) [ collapse]

  • Screenshot of Facebook post by Sergiy Selenskyy
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian shelling of a village in the Nadezhdi Starostyn district on May 5, 2022. (Image posted by Sergiy Selenskyy via Facebook)
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian shelling of a village in the Nadezhdi Starostyn district on May 5, 2022. (Image posted by Sergiy Selenskyy via Facebook)
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian shelling of a village in the Nadezhdi Starostyn district on May 5, 2022. (Image posted by Sergiy Selenskyy via Facebook)
  • Damage caused by alleged Russian shelling of a village in the Nadezhdi Starostyn district on May 5, 2022. (Image posted by Suspilne News)

Geolocation notes

Reports of the incident mention the Nadezhdi Starostyn district (Надеждівському Старостинському окрузі), for which the generic coordinates are: 49.141518, 36.548724. Due to limited satellite imagery and information available to Airwars, we were unable to verify the location further.

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Russian Military Assessment:

  • Suspected belligerent
    Russian Military
  • Russian Military position on incident
    Not yet assessed

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    1
  • (1 woman)
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (5) [ collapse]

Incident Code

RUK174

Incident date

May 4, 2022

Location

Старий Салтів, Staryi Saltiv, Kharkiv, Ukraine

Geolocation

50.099884, 36.775080 Note: The accuracy of this location is to Exact location (via Airwars) level. Continue to map

Airwars assessment

Four civilians, including a child, were killed and two injured, a woman and her six month old daughter, in an alleged Russian military personnel attack near Staryi Saltiv on a 15 vehicle convoy which had been evacuating the then Russian occupied city of Vovchansk on May 4, 2022.

Investigators arrived at the scene two days after the attack and launched a pre-trial investigation into the violation of the laws and customs of war combined with intentional murder (Part 2 of Article 438 of the criminal code of Ukraine). When conducted by the Chuguyiv District Police, they found six of the cars in the convoy had been damaged and four unrecognisable burnt corpses.

The Victims Memorial provided the details of a young girl aged 13 who was killed instantly in the attack. She was evacuating with her mother and six-month old sister who were both severely injured in the attack and taken to Vokhansk hospital. The family had travelled to Vovchansk with the belief that it would be safer in the case of a Russian invasion however soon had to evacuate due to clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces. Details of the three further civilians killed in this attack are unknown at the time of writing.

Images posted on the telegram channels of prokuratura_kharkiv and pgo_gov_ua detail the damage caused to four of the vehicles. One five door car was burnt and destroyed beyond recognition with additional damage to the front; another was also burnt but with less severity; a black BMW had visible gunshot entry damage to the front windscreen and vehicle left, both visible tires were flat; another car had heavy damage to the bottom front and gunshots to the driver’s side of the front windscreen. 300 meters from the cars a damaged Russian tank was also found abandoned, through 150 meters from this the charred bodies of two men in Russian military uniforms were also found.

This assessment has reference to ACLED code UKR57183.

The local time of the incident is unknown.

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian infrastructure
    Humanitarian evacuation
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    4
  • (1 child)
  • Civilians reported injured
    2
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military
  • Belligerents reported killed
    2

Sources (15) [ collapse]

Media
from sources (12) [ collapse]

  • This media contains graphic content. Click to unblur.

    Graphic image of the victims of an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Prokuratura_kharkiv via Telegram)
  • Damage caused by an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Prokuratura_kharkiv via Telegram)
  • Damage caused by an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Prokuratura_kharkiv via Telegram)
  • Damage caused by an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Prokuratura_kharkiv via Telegram)
  • Result of an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Prokuratura_kharkiv via Telegram)
  • Screenshot of Facebook post by Sergey Bolvinov
  • Damage caused by an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Sergey Bolvinov via Facebook)
  • Russian tank found near an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Sergey Bolvinov via Facebook)
  • Damage caused by an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Sergey Bolvinov via Facebook)
  • Damage caused by an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Sergey Bolvinov via Facebook)
  • Damage caused by an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Sergey Bolvinov via Facebook)
  • Damage caused by an alleged Russian attack on an evacuation convoy in Staryi Saltiv on May 4, 2022. (Image posted by Sergey Bolvinov via Facebook)

Geolocation notes (4) [ collapse]

Reports of the incident mention vehicles struck in the vicinity of the town of Staryi Saltiv (Старий Салтів). Analysing audio-visual material from sources, we have narrowed the location down to the following exact coordinates: 50.099884, 36.775080.

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  • Tagged visual material from sources

    Imagery:
    Prokuratura_kharkiv

  • Tagged visual material from sources

    Imagery:
    Prokuratura_kharkiv

  • Tagged visual material from sources

    Imagery:
    Prokuratura_kharkiv

  • Tagged visual material from sources

    Imagery:
    Prokuratura_kharkiv

Russian Military Assessment:

  • Suspected belligerent
    Russian Military
  • Russian Military position on incident
    Not yet assessed

Summary

  • Strike status
    Likely strike
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian infrastructure
    Humanitarian evacuation
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    4
  • (1 child)
  • Civilians reported injured
    2
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Fair
    Reported by two or more credible sources, with likely or confirmed near actions by a belligerent.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military
  • Belligerents reported killed
    2

Sources (15) [ collapse]

Counting the Dead in Ukraine

Published

May 4, 2022

Written by

Sanjana Varghese

published in partnership with

Newlines magazine logo

Share on

Long in-place mechanism for verifying casualties in the Donbas have been subsumed by the scale of carnage since Russia’s February invasion

This article was originally published in Newlines and written by Airwars’ Sanjana Varghese. The original version can be read here.

In 2018, a small part of the Ukrainian military began gathering data about civilian harm in ongoing fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk, two Ukrainian regions in the Donbas, seized by Russian-backed groups four years earlier. It was a rare move, one of only a handful of militaries around the world to have established such detailed monitoring of the civilian consequences of war.

Then, in February, Russia invaded.

“From day one of the [invasion], on the 24th and 25th, we were on the phone with people working to support this unit and they were saying, ‘sorry, I have to hang up and go fight,’” said Beatrice Godefroy, Europe director at CIVIC, one of the NGOs that helped establish the Ukrainian military’s civilian casualty monitoring cell. Structures that had taken years to build up risked being overwhelmed by the scale of the crisis.

More than two months into Russia’s invasion, no one really knows how many Ukrainian civilians have died. The Ukrainian government hasn’t published official figures since Feb. 28 — just four days into the war. The most recent estimate from the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, on May 3, puts the total minimum figure at 6,546. The U.N. admits the real number is far higher and is adjusting its methodology, while individual Ukrainian cities have published estimates that dwarf the U.N.’s figures — besieged Mariupol, alone, has estimated more than 20,000 civilian deaths. Reporting is fragmented: Some city councils have collected information, while others still face an environment too hostile to do so.

Monitoring civilian casualties during a live conflict has long been challenging. The breadth and ferocity of Russia’s campaign has added to that — with whole Ukrainian cities razed and more than 10 million people displaced so far. Images of devastation and ruin — of cities flattened by Russian besiegement and bodies abandoned in the streets — have been circulating widely, even as areas under attack have faced information blackouts.

Yet, understanding the full human impact of wars is crucial, both for the populations left behind and for any hope of justice and reconciliation to follow. Accurate casualty data can also help humanize those stories that may otherwise be lost in the endless churn of conflict.

Bekim Blakaj has spent 20 years documenting the impact of one of the last wars to rage in Europe. As head of the Humanitarian Law Center in Kosovo, he has been working with a team since the 1998-2000 Kosovo war to document every individual death during that conflict.

“Governments didn’t care enough to do it at the time,” he explains. “But [without reliable estimates of civilian harm] they would have left a space for those numbers to be manipulated, for the denial of crimes, the denial of victims. This harms the process of reconciliation, of creating a collective memory.”

In broad terms, there are three approaches to civilian casualty monitoring — counting, documentation and estimation, explains Michael Spagat, a professor at Royal Holloway, University of London, who has written extensively on the subject.

The first involves producing figures of civilian harm based on gathering broad estimates and figures from hospitals, public officials, death certificates and other kinds of institutional documentation. Often there is a database or system to go with it, but it isn’t typically made public, and this may also include “guesstimates” of the number of people affected by a specific event.

This method has the benefit of being relatively quick, but it has major limitations. Without reliable and detailed datasets, it is impossible to cross-check different figures — for example how estimates from Ukrainian city councils, hospitals and the U.N. might overlap. As such, you cannot knit together different datasets and have full confidence in each case.

“If ultimately we have the goal of a well-documented list of victims — or the events in which they’re killed — we need people to record more information than just the numbers,” Spagat said.

The second approach is documentation. This requires not just broad numbers of civilian casualties, but also specific information about each case — such as the age, name or place that civilian harm was identified. It could involve a combination of on-the-ground research and digital verification. This can also be done through open-source data and social media monitoring — with groups such as Iraq Body Count and Airwars doing this in conflicts primarily in the Middle East — or with interviews on the ground. The U.N. casualty monitoring mission in Ukraine was using this approach until Russia’s invasion.

Raed Jarrar conducted door-to-door surveys in Iraq in 2003 with CIVIC. “You end up with stories and names — someone saying, ‘my next-door neighbor was killed,’” he said. “Individual stories, individual names, the story of an attack on a bus or a convoy — that’s also putting things in context, which is as important as giving a figure.”

In the immediate aftermath of the Kosovo war, Blakaj and others began interviewing local sources and surviving family members to gather information on the missing. Later, they standardized their methodology — deciding that to confirm someone as dead or missing they needed two independent sources, one of which had to be a primary source such as an interviewee.

“We didn’t have any training,” Blakaj says. “We invented a protocol by doing it.”

It took them four years to produce their first estimates of civilian harm. Currently, their death toll from the Kosovo war stands at 13,535, with 75% being civilians. “The sooner you can start after the conflict, the closer you are to having accurate information,” Blakaj explains.

The third approach, estimation, involves taking sample sizes and extrapolating to national trends. So rather than document each individual death, which may prove impossible if the Ukraine conflict continues at this intensity for a long time, estimates are based on trends from a number of population samples. Such estimates typically produce larger figures. For example, the Iraq Family Health Survey Study Group estimated 151,000 violent deaths in the years between 2002 and 2006, based on household surveys and other simulations that controlled for factors such as a stable population. This was multiple times greater than Iraq Body Count’s estimate for the same period.

Before Russia’s 2022 invasion, Ukraine had well-established mechanisms for documentation of those killed or missing — with more than 3,095 conflict-related Ukrainian civilian deaths documented from 2014 to late 2021. But the ferocity of the current conflict has fragmented those existing networks. Organizations such as CIVIC and the U.N. agencies have seen some or all of their staff flee their homes. Many who have stayed are facing information blackouts — making it difficult to verify or document local and national civilian casualty incidents.

The U.N. also recently announced it is reworking its methodology after being “criticized heavily” for its current low estimates. The methodology from 2014 until the start of the war — which is available online — drew on a wide range of information, including forensic reports, eyewitness accounts and interviews with victims and their relatives. Uladzimir Shcherbau, the head of civilian harm monitoring for the U.N. in Ukraine, explained that it typically required at least three independent sources to confirm a death and only counted people as civilians if found unarmed.

But Russia’s invasion has seen U.N. monitors quickly become overwhelmed. “The amount of material we have to process is enormous, and the time constraints are also enormous, so we cannot go too deeply into each individual incident,” Shcherbau explained.

Their figures have been far lower than Ukrainian estimates, leading some to argue this has lent a veneer of legitimacy to the claims of those trying to downplay the Russian invasion.

The U.N. is now adjusting its methodology to gather estimates from a wider range of sources including regional authorities and official agencies. Rather than only releasing exact figures of those cases that they have corroborated, they’re hoping to soon produce a realistic estimate of the death toll from the fighting in Ukraine. This is perhaps closer to counting than documenting.

“We have a big mass of information which allows us to triangulate or somehow approximate the actual death toll,” Shcherbau said.

Airwars / Courtesy of author
After the conflict ends, the U.N. team still plans to do full documentation over a long period.

Ukraine has some advantages over other environments where civilian casualty organizations operate, such as Ethiopia, Iraq and Syria. It’s relatively well-placed to find out how many civilians are harmed, and as Jarrar points out, the Ukrainian government is actively interested in doing so. “When I was collecting information in Iraq, the state had collapsed — the U.S. was occupying, and it was interested in suppressing the number of civilian casualties,” he said.

Online sleuths have also made a difference in preserving key information. Organizations such as Bellingcat and the Centre for Information Resilience, for example, have been mobilizing volunteers to document attacks on civilian infrastructure — potentially opening up avenues for further investigation and litigation when the conflict decreases in intensity.

There are plenty of news organizations producing detailed reports about mass civilian casualty events — including in Bucha, where horrific details about a monthlong campaign of cruelty and sexual violence by Russian soldiers have emerged. The Ukrainian government has also sent investigators with smartphones to look for evidence of potential war crimes.

“The amount of material online in Ukraine is extraordinary,” says Rich Weir, who has spent much of the past two months in Ukraine for Human Rights Watch. He compared it to the conflict in Myanmar last year, where the military authorities ultimately cut off internet access. “At first, there were livestreams, videos, images, more than you could possibly process — and then they cut off access. But some areas, such as Mariupol, are in an information blackout like what we saw in Myanmar, which creates a really difficult environment for documentation.”

Despite all of these efforts, it may still take years to finally understand how many civilians have been killed.

“When will the world know for sure, when hostilities are over, the exact number of civilians who have been killed in Mariupol from day one until the last day of hostilities?” Shcherbau asked. “That will surely take time to recover all the bodies, to identify them, and because there was a mass displacement — the ultimate accurate figure won’t arrive quickly.”

However long it takes, such numbers can provide a counterweight to biased narratives; and detailed documentation about the lives that were lost can humanize a brutal and bloody conflict that has devastated an entire country.

“The first step towards a peaceful situation is when we accept the facts of what happened,” Blakaj said. “Creating a collective memory reduces the chances of having a recurrence of violence.”

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Incident Code

RUK176

Incident date

May 4, 2022

Location

Лозівський район, Lozivsʹkyy district, Kharkiv, Ukraine

Geolocation

49.04111, 36.36903 Note: The accuracy of this location is to District level. Continue to map

Airwars assessment

On May 4th 2022, an 11 year-old boy was injured as a result of alleged Russian shelling in the Lozova district of Kharkiv.

The Head of Kharkiv Oblast Oleg Sinegubov commented on Facebook: “Today, as a result of enemy shelling, an 11-year-old child was injured in the Loziv district”. According to Suspilne News, the boy was left in a “moderate condition”.

There are no other details at this time.

This assessment has reference to ACLED code UKR57157.

The local time of the incident is unknown.

Summary

  • Strike status
    Single source claim
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    Unknown
  • Civilians reported injured
    1
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Weak
    Single source claim, though sometimes featuring significant information.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (5) [ collapse]

Geolocation notes

Reports of the incident mention the Lozivskyi district (Лозівський район), for which the generic coordinates are: 49.04111, 36.36903. Due to limited satellite imagery and information available to Airwars, we were unable to verify the location further.

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Russian Military Assessment:

  • Suspected belligerent
    Russian Military
  • Russian Military position on incident
    Not yet assessed

Summary

  • Strike status
    Single source claim
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    Unknown
  • Civilians reported injured
    1
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Weak
    Single source claim, though sometimes featuring significant information.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military

Sources (5) [ collapse]

Incident Code

RUK175

Incident date

May 4, 2022

Location

Балаклі́я, Balakleya, Kharkiv , Ukraine

Geolocation

49.46059, 36.84004 Note: The accuracy of this location is to Town level. Continue to map

Airwars assessment

On May 4th 2022, Kharkhiv Human Rights Protection group reported that Russian shelling of the town of Balakeya near Kharkiv resulted in one man dying. Suspilne quoted Oleg Sineguboy, the head of the Kharkhiv Regional Military administration who added that the “the deceased is from the village of Zalyman between the temporarily occupied Balaklia and Izyum”.

The local time of the incident is unknown.

Summary

  • Strike status
    Single source claim
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    1
  • (1 man)
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Weak
    Single source claim, though sometimes featuring significant information.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military
  • Suspected target
    Russian Military

Sources (4) [ collapse]

Geolocation notes

Reports of the incident mention the town of Balakleya (Балаклі́я), for which the generic coordinates are: 49.46059, 36.84004. Due to limited satellite imagery and information available to Airwars, we were unable to verify the location further.

Russian Military Assessment:

  • Suspected belligerent
    Russian Military
  • Russian Military position on incident
    Not yet assessed

Summary

  • Strike status
    Single source claim
  • Strike type
    Artillery
  • Civilian harm reported
    Yes
  • Civilians reported killed
    1
  • (1 man)
  • Cause of injury / death
    Heavy weapons and explosive munitions
  • Airwars civilian harm grading
    Weak
    Single source claim, though sometimes featuring significant information.
  • Suspected attacker
    Russian Military
  • Suspected target
    Russian Military

Sources (4) [ collapse]